ANALYSIS: In August 2008 KASE repo market reached new historical maximum

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, September 17, 08/ - In August 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 8,367 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,593.1 bn. or USD21,615.6 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 60.9 % of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in July 2008 - 64.2 %). The mentioned value is the biggest monthly turnover of repo transactions on KASE for the whole Exchange history. Compared to July 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT385.6 bn. ($3,259.7 m.) or by 17.5%. Relative to August 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT310.6 bn. ($3 351.7 m.) or by 13.6 % (by 18.4 % times in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in August on comparable operations totaled 99.9 %, in July 2008 - 100%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 94.8 % of the sector's turnover (KZT2,457.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 81.9% (KZT2,122.6 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 12.9 % (KZT334.9 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 5.2 % of the sector's turnover (KZT135.6 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.5 % (KZT13.9 bn.), deals in CS - 4.7 % (KZT121.6 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in July, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 94.1 % (GS - 82.3 %; CS - 11.7 %); repo by nego method - 5.9 % (GS - 0.8 %; CS - 5.1 %). August was characterized by record volume of deals on repo market for the whole KASE history. The previous record was reached in June 2007, when volume of repo transactions reached KZT2 536.1 bn. or $20 783.4 m. Explaining such high volume of deals on repo market, among other reasons we should single out traditional budget payments, in particular oil export tax ($109.91 per ton), which has been lately introduced in Kazakhstan. However, decreasing of rates (TONIA index decreased from 3.17 % APR in July to 2.94 % APR in August) allow to tell about considerable surplus tenge liquidity. Apart form decreasing of official refinancing rate and the level of minimal reserve requirements by the National Bank, such surplus is explained by significant volume of export proceeds on concluded in the period of "price boom" oil contracts, which resulted in record volume of transactions on USD market as a result of conversion in national currency. The other reason is connected with unfavorable situation not only on Kazakhstan but western markets, which domestic investors preferred to local market as alternative in crisis period. World economy recession leads to sharp reviewing of forecasts on profits of major corporations, what even more restrict investment possibilities of available assets in securities. Thus, Kazakhstan investors temporally shifted to repo floor, placing there available assets. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in August 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (4.7 % of the market) are not published by IRBIS due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 81.9 % of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ KZT_001 2.60 0.00 8.00 5.00 2.94 954,636.6 2,324 88.74 KZT_002 2.50 0.70 4.00 3.20 2.33 20,450.0 17 1.90 KZT_003 4.00 3.00 4.50 4.00 3.89 14,577.0 18 1.35 KZT_007 4.00 3.50 10.50 10.50 6.67 66,651.0 81 6.20 KZT_014 4.00 4.00 6.80 4.50 4.83 8,614.0 21 0.80 KZT_028 8.50 4.00 8.50 6.00 5.58 10,881.0 16 1.01 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ TOTAL 1,075,809.6 2,477 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 12.9 % of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBNb10_090 11.00 3,098.0 1 1.80 ASBNb3_001 4.00 134.0 1 0.08 ASBNb7_003 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 701.0 3 0.41 ASBNb9_090 11.00 5,031.0 1 2.92 ASFI_001 7.00 1.50 7.00 2.00 3.20 14,002.3 30 8.13 ASFI_007 7.50 7.50 11.00 9.00 10.36 10,168.1 16 5.90 ASFI_030 11.84 11.00 12.00 12.00 11.84 7,572.1 14 4.40 ASFI_090 9.00 500.0 1 0.29 ASFIb15001 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.40 494.0 3 0.29 ASFIb15007 8.00 7.00 8.00 7.00 7.91 330.0 4 0.19 ASFIb15028 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 465.0 2 0.27 ASFIb5_001 4.00 644.0 1 0.37 ASFIb5_007 6.50 6.50 7.00 6.50 6.71 76.0 6 0.04 ASFIb5_014 7.30 20.0 1 0.01 ASFIb9_001 4.00 55.0 1 0.03 ASFIb9_007 6.80 6.50 6.80 6.50 6.53 493.0 5 0.29 ASFIp_001 7.50 2.50 8.00 8.00 6.12 10,098.1 10 5.86 ASFIp_007 7.50 6.50 7.50 6.50 6.88 2,872.0 2 1.67 ASFIp_014 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 1,200.0 2 0.70 ASFIp_028 6.50 6.00 11.84 11.84 10.89 8,660.1 13 5.03 ATFBb3_001 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 3.58 361.0 3 0.21 ATFBb3_003 5.00 4.50 6.00 6.00 5.41 466.0 6 0.27 ATFBb3_007 6.50 6.50 7.00 6.50 6.70 152.0 3 0.09 ATFBb3_030 10.00 812.0 1 0.47 ATFBb4_001 4.00 152.0 1 0.09 ATFBb4_007 6.50 5.60 6.50 6.00 6.20 652.0 4 0.38 ATFBb4_014 7.50 185.0 1 0.11 ATFBb5_028 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 414.0 2 0.24 ATFBb6_028 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 570.0 4 0.33 BTAIb4_007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 155.0 2 0.09 BTAIb4_014 8.00 100.0 1 0.06 BTAIb5_014 8.00 187.0 1 0.11 BTAIb7_007 8.00 200.0 1 0.12 BTAS_001 5.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 3.99 2,196.3 14 1.28 BTAS_007 7.00 7.00 12.00 7.00 7.14 5,014.5 33 2.91 BTAS_014 8.00 8.00 8.50 8.50 8.20 410.0 2 0.24 BTAS_030 12.00 9.00 15.00 9.00 14.35 1,763.1 7 1.02 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 12.91 6,570.1 12 3.82 BTASb1_001 4.00 150.0 1 0.09 BTASb1_007 7.50 6.50 7.50 7.50 7.43 2,050.0 7 1.19 BTASb3_014 7.50 84.0 1 0.05 BTASb4_001 4.00 70.0 1 0.04 BTASb4_007 7.00 6.50 7.00 6.50 6.58 381.0 5 0.22 BTASb4_014 7.50 7.30 7.50 7.50 7.47 710.0 3 0.41 BTASb5_003 4.50 505.0 1 0.29 BTASb7_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 1,470.0 2 0.85 BTASb7_030 12.00 12.00 13.50 13.50 13.40 320.0 3 0.19 BTASb7_090 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 780.0 3 0.45 BTASb9_001 5.00 4,000.0 1 2.32 BTASb9_003 5.80 4,000.0 1 2.32 BTASb9_004 6.10 3,000.0 1 1.74 BTASb9_007 8.00 6.50 8.00 7.00 7.16 8,250.0 5 4.79 BTASb9_014 8.10 8.10 8.50 8.50 8.42 2,500.0 2 1.45 BTASb9_030 10.00 9.80 10.00 9.80 9.90 1,665.0 2 0.97 BTLZb1_001 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 140.0 2 0.08 BTLZb1_003 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 70.0 2 0.04 BTLZb1_007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 408.0 3 0.24 BTLZb1_028 11.00 1,237.0 1 0.72 BTTRb1_007 5.00 500.0 1 0.29 CCBN_001 4.50 4.50 6.00 6.00 5.14 1,134.0 11 0.66 CCBN_007 7.50 5.50 10.00 10.00 7.47 839.0 7 0.49 CCBN_014 10.00 9.00 12.00 10.00 10.34 1,258.0 14 0.73 CCBN_030 12.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 11.91 10,003.0 14 5.81 CCBNb10030 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.16 583.0 4 0.34 CCBNb13003 5.00 280.0 1 0.16 CCBNb13007 7.00 6.50 8.00 6.50 7.10 1,086.0 4 0.63 CCBNb13014 10.50 282.0 1 0.16 CCBNb14001 4.00 19.0 1 0.01 CCBNb14007 6.80 6.50 6.80 6.50 6.64 518.0 8 0.30 CCBNb15003 4.00 24.0 1 0.01 CCBNb15007 6.50 24.0 1 0.01 CCBNb19090 11.00 4,868.0 1 2.83 CCBNb3_014 10.50 27.0 1 0.02 CCBNb9_003 4.50 125.0 1 0.07 CSBNb4_001 4.00 239.0 1 0.14 CSBNb4_003 4.50 239.0 1 0.14 CSBNb5_001 4.00 170.0 1 0.10 CSBNb6_001 6.00 4.00 6.00 4.00 5.12 412.0 3 0.24 CSBNb6_003 4.50 4.50 6.20 6.20 5.57 675.0 3 0.39 CSBNb6_007 6.80 6.50 6.80 6.50 6.67 191.0 4 0.11 DTJLb1_001 4.50 4.50 6.00 6.00 5.40 397.0 4 0.23 DTJLb1_007 7.50 166.0 1 0.10 DTJLb1_014 12.00 22.0 1 0.01 EUBNb3_001 4.00 3.50 4.00 3.50 3.75 176.0 2 0.10 EUBNb3_007 6.80 6.50 6.85 6.50 6.71 921.0 10 0.53 HSBKb10007 7.00 6.50 8.00 6.50 6.99 1,002.0 11 0.58 HSBKb11007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 394.0 2 0.23 HSBKb11014 7.50 195.0 1 0.11 HSBKb7_001 4.00 30.0 1 0.02 HSBKb7_007 6.80 6.50 6.80 6.50 6.68 159.0 5 0.09 HSBKb7_014 7.30 34.0 1 0.02 HSBKb7_028 10.00 29.0 1 0.02 HSBKp1_003 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 3,260.0 3 1.89 HSBKp1_007 7.00 6.00 7.00 6.00 6.40 384.0 7 0.22 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 865.0 2 0.50 KKAGb3_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 380.0 2 0.22 KKGB_028 13.00 51.0 1 0.03 KKGBb2_003 4.50 258.0 1 0.15 KKGBb2_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 1,400.0 2 0.81 KZIKb3_028 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 82.0 2 0.05 KZTCb1_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 153.0 3 0.09 KZTK_001 5.00 45.0 1 0.03 KZTK_003 4.50 27.0 1 0.02 MREKb2_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 159.0 2 0.09 NFBN_001 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 2,482.0 34 1.44 ORDB_003 7.00 58.0 1 0.03 ORDB_028 14.50 14.00 14.50 14.50 14.48 480.0 8 0.28 ORDB_090 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 115.0 2 0.07 ORDBb2_028 13.50 30.0 1 0.02 ORDBp_003 7.00 6.00 7.00 6.00 6.73 80.0 2 0.05 ORDBp_014 14.50 40.0 1 0.02 ORDBp_090 14.50 100.0 1 0.06 PRKRb2_003 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1,880.0 2 1.09 PRKRb2_007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 443.0 2 0.26 PRKRb2_014 7.50 7.20 7.50 7.20 7.42 960.0 4 0.56 PRKRb2_028 11.00 3,720.0 1 2.16 RDGZ_001 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.26 1,506.1 7 0.87 RDGZ_007 8.00 5.60 8.00 6.00 6.40 504.0 5 0.29 RDGZ_014 8.00 8.00 10.50 10.50 8.19 530.0 3 0.31 RDGZ_028 11.00 36.0 1 0.02 RGBRb4_007 7.50 33.0 1 0.02 RGBRb4_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 247.0 3 0.14 RGBRb5_001 6.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.44 291.0 3 0.17 RGBRb5_007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 131.0 2 0.08 RGBRb5_028 11.50 11.50 12.00 12.00 11.51 183.0 3 0.11 RGBRb6_014 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 83.0 2 0.05 RGBRb6_028 12.00 126.0 1 0.07 ROSA_001 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 22.0 2 0.01 ROSA_003 18.00 12.0 1 0.01 ROSA_007 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 1,092.0 12 0.63 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 18.00 13.00 14.80 281.0 3 0.16 TEBN_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 185.0 2 0.11 TEBN_030 12.50 50.0 1 0.03 TEBNb16014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 40.0 2 0.02 TEBNb5_007 6.80 6.50 7.30 6.50 6.72 364.0 5 0.21 TEBNp_030 12.50 50.0 1 0.03 TSBN_030 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 596.0 8 0.35 TSBNb3_007 6.80 6.50 7.00 6.50 6.81 340.0 5 0.20 TSBNb3_014 7.30 68.0 1 0.04 TSSMb1_001 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.25 600.0 4 0.35 UTMK_030 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,520.0 3 0.88 VITAb5_030 13.00 84.0 1 0.05 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 172,211.5 554 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.5 % of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 0 X 120.5 1 1.67 1 3.00 3.00 6.50 3.00 5.46 1,851.8 14 25.73 2 4.80 1.00 6.00 1.00 4.90 1,395.4 8 19.39 3 8.00 107.0 1 1.49 4 6.00 4.85 6.00 4.85 5.04 600.0 6 8.34 6 6.00 6.00 11.00 11.00 6.60 378.7 7 5.26 7 4.00 4.00 7.50 6.00 6.05 1,583.1 23 22.00 9 12.00 37.9 1 0.53 11 6.09 6.09 6.09 6.09 6.09 140.0 2 1.95 13 10.00 26.1 1 0.36 14 6.00 6.00 12.00 6.00 6.44 244.6 6 3.40 15 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 159.0 4 2.21 18 7.00 70.0 1 0.97 21 6.01 6.01 6.01 6.01 6.01 176.5 3 2.45 22 6.51 3.0 1 0.04 33 9.00 26.5 1 0.37 35 10.01 33.9 1 0.47 37 12.00 42.0 1 0.58 61 12.50 200.0 1 2.78 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 7,196.0 83 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-09-17]