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07.08.2008 21:20 #KASE news

ANALYSIS: In July 2008 repo rates on KASE continued growth under high-level inflation influence

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, August 7, 08/ - In July 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 7,629 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,207.5 bn. or USD18,355.8 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 64.2% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in June 2008 - 59.2%).

Compared to June 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT538.2 bn. ($4,528.5 m.) or by 32.2%. Relative to July 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT85.9 bn. ($972.2 m.) or by 4.0% (by 5.6% times in dollar terms).

Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in July on comparable operations totaled 100%, in June 2008 - 100%.

Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows:

0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 94.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT2,076.9 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 82.3% (KZT1,817.6 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 11.7% (KZT259.3 bn.);

1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 5.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT130.6 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.8% (KZT17.2 bn.), deals in CS - 5.1% (KZT113.4 bn.).

For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in June, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 90.9% (GS - 77.5%; CS - 13.4%); repo by nego method - 9.1% (GS - 0.7%; CS - 8.5%).

Retaining high inflation pressure continues push up rates on repo operations. Thus, index TONIA has grown from 1.38% APR in June to 3.17% APR in July. Peculiarity of analyzed month is maximum volume of deals in this sector of exchange market with retaining structure of the market. According to IRBIS specialists, this growing volume of deals is connected with huge tax payments by results of quarter, including subsoil users` tax payment. Kazakhstan banks foreign loans maturity in analyzed period can also be included.

In August repo rates downward correction is possible because of decreasing of official refinancing rate and level of minimal reserve requirements by National Bank.

Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in July 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.1% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table).

Automatic repo with GS - 82.3% of the market

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR            Num-
Instrument  -------------------------------------   Volume,   ber Market       
(currency,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted       KZT    of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average        m. deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
KZT_000                                      2.00     311.0     1   0.03
KZT_001         1.50  0.00  8.00    3.50     3.17 842,575.5  2044  92.50
KZT_002         1.50  1.50  4.60    3.00     2.87  13,858.0    31   1.52
KZT_003         2.00  2.00  4.50    4.00     3.12   7,600.0     8   0.83
KZT_007         6.50  2.00 12.00    5.00     4.73  27,217.0    63   2.99
KZT_014        12.00  4.20 12.00   12.00     7.47   3,407.0    12   0.37
KZT_028         5.10  4.50 12.00    8.50     7.34  15,917.0    27   1.75
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
TOTAL                                             910,885.5 2,186    100
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Automatic repo with CS - 11.7% of the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
 Instrument -------------------------------------   Volume,   Num- Market
(security,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted        m. ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       KZT  deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ASBN_090        8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00   2,050.0      5   1.56
ASBNb3_003                                   4.50     125.0      1   0.10
ASBNb3_007      7.00  5.50  7.50    7.50     6.93     407.0      5   0.31
ASFI_001        4.00  4.00  4.00    4.00     4.00     641.0      2   0.49
ASFI_007        9.00  7.50 11.00    8.50     8.76   4,578.1     16   3.49
ASFI_030       11.50 11.50 14.00   12.00    12.15  10,407.1     15   7.94
ASFIb15007      7.50  7.50  8.00    8.00     7.70     500.0      5   0.38
ASFIb15028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     774.0      4   0.59
ASFIb5_007      5.00  5.00  6.50    5.70     5.57   1,723.0     12   1.31
ASFIb5_014      7.00  7.00  7.25    7.25     7.15     345.0      2   0.26
ASFIb9_007                                   7.00      16.0      1   0.01
ASFIp_001       5.50  5.50  6.50    6.50     5.73   2,451.1      5   1.87
ASFIp_014      10.00  8.00 10.00    8.00     8.28   1,686.0      3   1.29
ASFIp_028      11.84  6.00 12.00   11.84    11.53  10,960.2     23   8.36
ATFBb3_007      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     350.0      2   0.27
ATFBb3_014                                   7.00      70.0      1   0.05
ATFBb3_030                                   9.00     806.0      1   0.61
ATFBb4_002                                   4.50     500.0      1   0.38
ATFBb4_007      5.70  5.00  7.00    5.30     5.92     725.0      5   0.55
ATFBb4_014      7.00  6.50  7.50    6.50     7.16   1,024.0      4   0.78
ATFBb5_028                                   9.00     204.0      1   0.16
ATFBb6_007                                   7.50      11.0      1   0.01
ATFBb6_028      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     570.0      4   0.43
BTAIb5_003                                   4.50     118.0      1   0.09
BTAIb5_007      5.80  5.50  7.00    7.00     5.64     304.0      4   0.23
BTAIb6_007      6.00  5.70  6.00    5.70     5.92     537.0      2   0.41
BTAS_001        3.00  3.00  5.50    5.00     3.92   1,214.3     11   0.93
BTAS_007        7.00  5.50  9.00    7.50     7.27   8,624.2     40   6.58
BTAS_030       11.00 10.50 15.00   12.00    13.15   2,953.2     12   2.25
BTAS_090       12.00 12.00 12.50   12.50    12.02   3,300.1      8   2.52
BTASb4_007      6.50  5.80  6.50    5.80     5.91     215.0      2   0.16
BTASb4_014                                   7.00     180.0      1   0.14
BTASb5_007      6.50  5.50  6.90    5.50     6.03   1,474.0      5   1.12
BTASb5_014                                   7.50     200.0      1   0.15
BTASb7_001      3.00  3.00  4.00    4.00     3.42     717.0      3   0.55
BTASb7_007      3.00  3.00  6.90    6.50     5.61   1,696.0      4   1.29
BTASb7_030     12.00 12.00 13.50   13.50    13.40     320.0      3   0.24
BTASb7_090     14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,413.0      3   1.08
BTASb9_007      7.50  7.50  8.00    8.00     7.66   6,300.0      4   4.81
BTASb9_030      9.70  9.70 10.00   10.00     9.82   1,623.0      2   1.24
CCBN_001        4.00  4.00  4.50    4.50     4.20     432.0      5   0.33
CCBN_007        6.50  5.50  9.00    9.00     7.36     666.0      7   0.51
CCBN_014       11.50  6.50 12.00   10.00     9.29   1,090.0     12   0.83
CCBN_030       12.00 10.00 14.00   12.00    12.16  19,317.0     22  14.74
CCBNb10007                                   6.00     105.0      1   0.08
CCBNb10014                                   7.00     320.0      1   0.24
CCBNb10030     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     403.0      3   0.31
CCBNb13003                                   4.50     192.0      1   0.15
CCBNb13007      5.60  5.60  7.00    7.00     6.37     820.0      3   0.63
CCBNb13014      7.00  7.00  7.50    7.50     7.35     661.0      3   0.50
CCBNb14001                                   5.50      65.0      1   0.05
CCBNb14007      6.50  6.50  7.00    7.00     6.78     435.0      5   0.33
CCBNb4_001      4.00  4.00  5.50    5.50     4.75      48.0      2   0.04
CCBNb4_007                                   7.00       8.0      1   0.01
CCBNb9_007      7.00  7.00  7.50    7.50     7.47     245.0      3   0.19
CSBNb4_007      6.50  5.50  6.50    5.50     5.75     948.0      4   0.72
CSBNb5_003                                   4.50     182.0      1   0.14
CSBNb5_007      5.00  5.00  5.50    5.50     5.42     520.0      4   0.40
CSBNb6_001      6.00  4.00  6.00    6.00     5.91   1,925.1      9   1.47
CSBNb6_007      6.50  5.50  7.00    7.00     5.89     735.0      5   0.56
DTJLb1_001      4.00  4.00  5.00    5.00     4.84     275.0      3   0.21
DTJLb1_007      7.30  7.30  7.50    7.50     7.48     294.0      7   0.22
DTJLb1_014      9.00  8.70  9.00    8.70     8.96     314.0      6   0.24
EUBNb3_001                                   4.00      90.0      1   0.07
EUBNb3_007      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     335.0      3   0.26
EUBNb3_014                                   7.00      60.0      1   0.05
GLOTb2_028     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00     300.0      3   0.23
HSBKb10007      6.50  6.50  7.50    7.50     7.09   1,030.0      4   0.79
HSBKb11007      6.50  6.50  7.00    7.00     6.75     390.0      2   0.30
HSBKb11014                                   7.50     195.0      1   0.15
HSBKb7_007      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00      60.0      2   0.05
HSBKb7_014                                   7.50      30.0      1   0.02
HSBKb7_028                                  10.00      80.0      1   0.06
HSBKp1_001                                   3.00      55.0      1   0.04
HSBKp1_003                                   4.50     822.0      1   0.63
HSBKp1_007      7.00  5.00  8.00    8.00     5.54   4,184.0     10   3.19
HSBKp1_014      7.50  6.50  8.00    6.50     6.72   1,975.0      4   1.51
KASTb1_028     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50     865.0      2   0.66
KKGB_001        5.20  4.50  5.20    4.50     4.85      32.0      2   0.02
KKGB_028       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     101.0      2   0.08
KKGBb2_001      4.00  4.00  4.00    4.00     4.00      32.1      2   0.02
KKGBb2_003                                   4.50     196.0      1   0.15
KKGBb2_014      7.00  7.00  7.50    7.50     7.25     392.0      2   0.30
KKGBb2_028                                   7.00      50.1      1   0.04
KZIKb8_007                                   7.50      58.0      1   0.04
KZTK_001        4.80  4.00  4.80    4.50     4.51     492.2      9   0.38
KZTK_003        6.50  6.50  8.00    8.00     7.01     178.0      4   0.14
KZTK_007        6.50  5.50  6.50    5.50     5.75     118.1      4   0.09
KZTKp_001                                    4.00       8.0      1   0.01
NFBN_001        7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00   1,914.0     26   1.46
NFBN_003        7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     573.0      8   0.44
NFBN_028                                    13.00      50.0      1   0.04
NFBNb1_007                                   8.00       9.0      1   0.01
NFBNb1_014                                  10.00      10.0      1   0.01
ORDB_003                                     7.00     155.0      1   0.12
ORDB_007                                    12.00      20.0      1   0.02
ORDB_028       14.50 13.00 14.50   14.50    14.44     505.0      8   0.39
ORDB_090       14.50 14.50 14.50   14.50    14.50     340.0      4   0.26
ORDBb2_001                                   5.00      87.0      1   0.07
ORDBp_090                                   14.50      10.0      1   0.01
ORNKb1_001                                   6.00      50.0      1   0.04
ORNKb1_007                                   8.00      15.0      1   0.01
PRKRb2_001                                   3.00     135.0      1   0.10
PRKRb2_003      5.00  5.00  5.00    5.00     5.00   2,820.0      3   2.15
PRKRb2_007      6.50  6.50  7.00    7.00     6.75     440.0      2   0.34
PRKRb2_014      7.00  7.00  7.50    7.50     7.31     360.0      2   0.27
PRKRb2_028     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     671.0      2   0.51
RDGZ_001        5.50  5.00  5.50    5.00     5.05     531.0      3   0.41
RDGZ_007        5.00  5.00  7.50    5.50     5.66   1,289.1      7   0.98
RDGZ_014        9.00  8.70  9.00    8.70     8.81      78.0      2   0.06
RDGZ_028                                    11.50      24.0      1   0.02
RGBRb4_001      4.00  3.00  5.00    5.00     3.83     156.0      5   0.12
RGBRb4_007                                   7.00       5.0      1   0.00
RGBRb4_014                                   9.00       8.0      1   0.01
RGBRb4_028     11.50 11.50 12.00   12.00    11.83     351.0      4   0.27
RGBRb5_007      9.00  7.50  9.00    7.50     8.45     273.0      2   0.21
RGBRb5_028     11.00 11.00 12.00   12.00    11.72     264.0      3   0.20
RGBRb6_001                                   4.00     135.0      1   0.10
RGBRb6_003                                   5.00      98.0      1   0.07
RGBRb6_007                                   7.50      93.0      1   0.07
RGBRb6_014                                   9.00     185.0      1   0.14
RGBRb6_028     11.50 11.50 12.00   12.00    11.75     249.0      2   0.19
ROSA_003                                    18.00      10.0      1   0.01
ROSA_007       18.00 18.00 18.00   18.00    18.00   1,016.0     12   0.78
ROSA_028       13.00 13.00 18.00   13.00    14.32     380.0      4   0.29
TEBN_001        4.00  4.00  4.00    4.00     4.00     651.0      4   0.50
TEBN_014                                    12.50      49.0      1   0.04
TEBN_030       10.50 10.50 12.50   12.50    11.36     116.0      2   0.09
TEBNp_030                                   12.50      50.0      1   0.04
TSBN_030       10.50 10.50 11.00   10.50    10.85     810.0     11   0.62
TSBNb3_007                                   7.00      90.0      1   0.07
TSBNb3_014      7.50  7.00  7.50    7.00     7.22     160.0      2   0.12
TSSMb1_007                                   9.00      20.0      1   0.02
TSSMb1_014                                  10.00      20.0      1   0.02
UTMK_030       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,500.0      3   1.14
VITAb5_030     13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00      75.0      2   0.06
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
TOTAL                                             131,091.3    546    100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.8% of the market

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Repo rate, % APR
Term of  -----------------------------------------  Volume,    Num-  Market
 repo,   on first  mini-  maxi-  on last  weighted       m.  ber of  share,
 days        deal    mum    mum     deal   average      KZT   deals       %
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
0            3.00   0.00   6.00     4.50      3.17  1,191.9       6   18.22
1            5.15   0.33   5.15     2.00      3.59  2,190.3      19   33.48
2            4.50   3.00   4.50     3.00      3.58    772.7       7   11.81
3                                             8.00     20.0       1    0.31
4            3.50   2.00   4.63     3.50      4.30    570.7       7    8.72
6            2.91   2.91   6.00     6.00      4.42    250.7       4    3.83
7            5.70   3.50   6.50     5.50      5.83  1,377.4      18   21.05
8                                             5.40     50.1       1    0.77
11                                            8.00     20.0       1    0.31
14          10.01   6.50  10.01     6.50      8.39     73.8       2    1.13
18                                           10.01     20.8       1    0.32
21                                            7.01      4.0       1    0.06
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
TOTAL                                               6,542.3      68     100
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[2008-08-07]