ANALYSIS: In July 2008 repo rates on KASE continued growth under high-level inflation influence

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, August 7, 08/ - In July 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 7,629 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,207.5 bn. or USD18,355.8 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 64.2% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in June 2008 - 59.2%). Compared to June 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT538.2 bn. ($4,528.5 m.) or by 32.2%. Relative to July 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT85.9 bn. ($972.2 m.) or by 4.0% (by 5.6% times in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in July on comparable operations totaled 100%, in June 2008 - 100%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 94.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT2,076.9 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 82.3% (KZT1,817.6 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 11.7% (KZT259.3 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 5.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT130.6 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.8% (KZT17.2 bn.), deals in CS - 5.1% (KZT113.4 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in June, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 90.9% (GS - 77.5%; CS - 13.4%); repo by nego method - 9.1% (GS - 0.7%; CS - 8.5%). Retaining high inflation pressure continues push up rates on repo operations. Thus, index TONIA has grown from 1.38% APR in June to 3.17% APR in July. Peculiarity of analyzed month is maximum volume of deals in this sector of exchange market with retaining structure of the market. According to IRBIS specialists, this growing volume of deals is connected with huge tax payments by results of quarter, including subsoil users` tax payment. Kazakhstan banks foreign loans maturity in analyzed period can also be included. In August repo rates downward correction is possible because of decreasing of official refinancing rate and level of minimal reserve requirements by National Bank. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in July 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.1% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 82.3% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Num- Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, ber Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_000 2.00 311.0 1 0.03 KZT_001 1.50 0.00 8.00 3.50 3.17 842,575.5 2044 92.50 KZT_002 1.50 1.50 4.60 3.00 2.87 13,858.0 31 1.52 KZT_003 2.00 2.00 4.50 4.00 3.12 7,600.0 8 0.83 KZT_007 6.50 2.00 12.00 5.00 4.73 27,217.0 63 2.99 KZT_014 12.00 4.20 12.00 12.00 7.47 3,407.0 12 0.37 KZT_028 5.10 4.50 12.00 8.50 7.34 15,917.0 27 1.75 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ TOTAL 910,885.5 2,186 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 11.7% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_090 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 2,050.0 5 1.56 ASBNb3_003 4.50 125.0 1 0.10 ASBNb3_007 7.00 5.50 7.50 7.50 6.93 407.0 5 0.31 ASFI_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 641.0 2 0.49 ASFI_007 9.00 7.50 11.00 8.50 8.76 4,578.1 16 3.49 ASFI_030 11.50 11.50 14.00 12.00 12.15 10,407.1 15 7.94 ASFIb15007 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.70 500.0 5 0.38 ASFIb15028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 774.0 4 0.59 ASFIb5_007 5.00 5.00 6.50 5.70 5.57 1,723.0 12 1.31 ASFIb5_014 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.15 345.0 2 0.26 ASFIb9_007 7.00 16.0 1 0.01 ASFIp_001 5.50 5.50 6.50 6.50 5.73 2,451.1 5 1.87 ASFIp_014 10.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 8.28 1,686.0 3 1.29 ASFIp_028 11.84 6.00 12.00 11.84 11.53 10,960.2 23 8.36 ATFBb3_007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 350.0 2 0.27 ATFBb3_014 7.00 70.0 1 0.05 ATFBb3_030 9.00 806.0 1 0.61 ATFBb4_002 4.50 500.0 1 0.38 ATFBb4_007 5.70 5.00 7.00 5.30 5.92 725.0 5 0.55 ATFBb4_014 7.00 6.50 7.50 6.50 7.16 1,024.0 4 0.78 ATFBb5_028 9.00 204.0 1 0.16 ATFBb6_007 7.50 11.0 1 0.01 ATFBb6_028 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 570.0 4 0.43 BTAIb5_003 4.50 118.0 1 0.09 BTAIb5_007 5.80 5.50 7.00 7.00 5.64 304.0 4 0.23 BTAIb6_007 6.00 5.70 6.00 5.70 5.92 537.0 2 0.41 BTAS_001 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.00 3.92 1,214.3 11 0.93 BTAS_007 7.00 5.50 9.00 7.50 7.27 8,624.2 40 6.58 BTAS_030 11.00 10.50 15.00 12.00 13.15 2,953.2 12 2.25 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.50 12.50 12.02 3,300.1 8 2.52 BTASb4_007 6.50 5.80 6.50 5.80 5.91 215.0 2 0.16 BTASb4_014 7.00 180.0 1 0.14 BTASb5_007 6.50 5.50 6.90 5.50 6.03 1,474.0 5 1.12 BTASb5_014 7.50 200.0 1 0.15 BTASb7_001 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 3.42 717.0 3 0.55 BTASb7_007 3.00 3.00 6.90 6.50 5.61 1,696.0 4 1.29 BTASb7_030 12.00 12.00 13.50 13.50 13.40 320.0 3 0.24 BTASb7_090 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,413.0 3 1.08 BTASb9_007 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.66 6,300.0 4 4.81 BTASb9_030 9.70 9.70 10.00 10.00 9.82 1,623.0 2 1.24 CCBN_001 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.20 432.0 5 0.33 CCBN_007 6.50 5.50 9.00 9.00 7.36 666.0 7 0.51 CCBN_014 11.50 6.50 12.00 10.00 9.29 1,090.0 12 0.83 CCBN_030 12.00 10.00 14.00 12.00 12.16 19,317.0 22 14.74 CCBNb10007 6.00 105.0 1 0.08 CCBNb10014 7.00 320.0 1 0.24 CCBNb10030 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 403.0 3 0.31 CCBNb13003 4.50 192.0 1 0.15 CCBNb13007 5.60 5.60 7.00 7.00 6.37 820.0 3 0.63 CCBNb13014 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.35 661.0 3 0.50 CCBNb14001 5.50 65.0 1 0.05 CCBNb14007 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.78 435.0 5 0.33 CCBNb4_001 4.00 4.00 5.50 5.50 4.75 48.0 2 0.04 CCBNb4_007 7.00 8.0 1 0.01 CCBNb9_007 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.47 245.0 3 0.19 CSBNb4_007 6.50 5.50 6.50 5.50 5.75 948.0 4 0.72 CSBNb5_003 4.50 182.0 1 0.14 CSBNb5_007 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.42 520.0 4 0.40 CSBNb6_001 6.00 4.00 6.00 6.00 5.91 1,925.1 9 1.47 CSBNb6_007 6.50 5.50 7.00 7.00 5.89 735.0 5 0.56 DTJLb1_001 4.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.84 275.0 3 0.21 DTJLb1_007 7.30 7.30 7.50 7.50 7.48 294.0 7 0.22 DTJLb1_014 9.00 8.70 9.00 8.70 8.96 314.0 6 0.24 EUBNb3_001 4.00 90.0 1 0.07 EUBNb3_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 335.0 3 0.26 EUBNb3_014 7.00 60.0 1 0.05 GLOTb2_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 300.0 3 0.23 HSBKb10007 6.50 6.50 7.50 7.50 7.09 1,030.0 4 0.79 HSBKb11007 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.75 390.0 2 0.30 HSBKb11014 7.50 195.0 1 0.15 HSBKb7_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 60.0 2 0.05 HSBKb7_014 7.50 30.0 1 0.02 HSBKb7_028 10.00 80.0 1 0.06 HSBKp1_001 3.00 55.0 1 0.04 HSBKp1_003 4.50 822.0 1 0.63 HSBKp1_007 7.00 5.00 8.00 8.00 5.54 4,184.0 10 3.19 HSBKp1_014 7.50 6.50 8.00 6.50 6.72 1,975.0 4 1.51 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 865.0 2 0.66 KKGB_001 5.20 4.50 5.20 4.50 4.85 32.0 2 0.02 KKGB_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 101.0 2 0.08 KKGBb2_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 32.1 2 0.02 KKGBb2_003 4.50 196.0 1 0.15 KKGBb2_014 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.25 392.0 2 0.30 KKGBb2_028 7.00 50.1 1 0.04 KZIKb8_007 7.50 58.0 1 0.04 KZTK_001 4.80 4.00 4.80 4.50 4.51 492.2 9 0.38 KZTK_003 6.50 6.50 8.00 8.00 7.01 178.0 4 0.14 KZTK_007 6.50 5.50 6.50 5.50 5.75 118.1 4 0.09 KZTKp_001 4.00 8.0 1 0.01 NFBN_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,914.0 26 1.46 NFBN_003 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 573.0 8 0.44 NFBN_028 13.00 50.0 1 0.04 NFBNb1_007 8.00 9.0 1 0.01 NFBNb1_014 10.00 10.0 1 0.01 ORDB_003 7.00 155.0 1 0.12 ORDB_007 12.00 20.0 1 0.02 ORDB_028 14.50 13.00 14.50 14.50 14.44 505.0 8 0.39 ORDB_090 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 340.0 4 0.26 ORDBb2_001 5.00 87.0 1 0.07 ORDBp_090 14.50 10.0 1 0.01 ORNKb1_001 6.00 50.0 1 0.04 ORNKb1_007 8.00 15.0 1 0.01 PRKRb2_001 3.00 135.0 1 0.10 PRKRb2_003 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 2,820.0 3 2.15 PRKRb2_007 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.75 440.0 2 0.34 PRKRb2_014 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.31 360.0 2 0.27 PRKRb2_028 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 671.0 2 0.51 RDGZ_001 5.50 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.05 531.0 3 0.41 RDGZ_007 5.00 5.00 7.50 5.50 5.66 1,289.1 7 0.98 RDGZ_014 9.00 8.70 9.00 8.70 8.81 78.0 2 0.06 RDGZ_028 11.50 24.0 1 0.02 RGBRb4_001 4.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 3.83 156.0 5 0.12 RGBRb4_007 7.00 5.0 1 0.00 RGBRb4_014 9.00 8.0 1 0.01 RGBRb4_028 11.50 11.50 12.00 12.00 11.83 351.0 4 0.27 RGBRb5_007 9.00 7.50 9.00 7.50 8.45 273.0 2 0.21 RGBRb5_028 11.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 11.72 264.0 3 0.20 RGBRb6_001 4.00 135.0 1 0.10 RGBRb6_003 5.00 98.0 1 0.07 RGBRb6_007 7.50 93.0 1 0.07 RGBRb6_014 9.00 185.0 1 0.14 RGBRb6_028 11.50 11.50 12.00 12.00 11.75 249.0 2 0.19 ROSA_003 18.00 10.0 1 0.01 ROSA_007 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 1,016.0 12 0.78 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 18.00 13.00 14.32 380.0 4 0.29 TEBN_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 651.0 4 0.50 TEBN_014 12.50 49.0 1 0.04 TEBN_030 10.50 10.50 12.50 12.50 11.36 116.0 2 0.09 TEBNp_030 12.50 50.0 1 0.04 TSBN_030 10.50 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.85 810.0 11 0.62 TSBNb3_007 7.00 90.0 1 0.07 TSBNb3_014 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.22 160.0 2 0.12 TSSMb1_007 9.00 20.0 1 0.02 TSSMb1_014 10.00 20.0 1 0.02 UTMK_030 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,500.0 3 1.14 VITAb5_030 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 75.0 2 0.06 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 131,091.3 546 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.8% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 0 3.00 0.00 6.00 4.50 3.17 1,191.9 6 18.22 1 5.15 0.33 5.15 2.00 3.59 2,190.3 19 33.48 2 4.50 3.00 4.50 3.00 3.58 772.7 7 11.81 3 8.00 20.0 1 0.31 4 3.50 2.00 4.63 3.50 4.30 570.7 7 8.72 6 2.91 2.91 6.00 6.00 4.42 250.7 4 3.83 7 5.70 3.50 6.50 5.50 5.83 1,377.4 18 21.05 8 5.40 50.1 1 0.77 11 8.00 20.0 1 0.31 14 10.01 6.50 10.01 6.50 8.39 73.8 2 1.13 18 10.01 20.8 1 0.32 21 7.01 4.0 1 0.06 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 6,542.3 68 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-08-07]