ANALYSIS: KASE share market decreased on unfavorable events on world capital floors in June 2008
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, July 22, 08/ - In June 2008 Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) registered 1,210 deals for the total of KZT54.3 bn. or USD449.5 m. according to the current rate as on the date of conclusion of deals in shares in all market sectors including deals concluded on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA). The indicated sum totals to 55.1 % of monthly turnover of KASE corporate securities market (in May - 66.0 %) and 1.9 % of the total exchange monthly turnover (2.7 %).
Domestic market falling in June correlated with situation on international stock trading floors, which now are under new wave of world crisis. On the background of new considerable losses writing off by major companies, anxieties on their financial stability only increased (for example, according to Goldman Sachs, USA banks will have to borrow another $65 bn. for restoration of their balances). Considering increasing of inflation pressure in USA and eurozone, new announcements on major USA insurance and mortgage brokers bankruptcy, investors were fast to withdraw their assets from stock markets.
According to the results of June on the LSE equity prices instruments of Kazakhstan issuers, setting behavior on domestic market also, decreased: GDR on common shares of Halyk Savings Bank JSC fell by 15.3 % (+11.5 % in May), Alliance Bank JSC - by 4.3 % (+11.3 %), Kazkommertsbank JSC - by 5.5% (in May no changes), KazMunaiGas JSC - 9.9 % (+10.4 %), KAZAKHMYS PLС - 5.8 % (+6.8 %), EURASIAN NATURAL RESOURSES CORPORATION PLC (ENRC) - by 8.6% (+21.6%).
Quotation falling of equity securities of Kazakhstan primary sector on LSE was conditioned by the situation on world commodity markets. Thus, common shares of ENRC (GB_ENRC) experienced demand falling on ferrochrome (see details at ANALYSIS: Liquidity rating of KASE listing shares on secondary market in June and first 6 months of 2008). Situation with common shares of KAZAKHMYS PLC (GB_KZMS), due to receiving stake of this issuer in ENRC from 14.59% to 22.24% as a result of exchange with Kazakhstan republic government, correlated with condition of ENRC shares in June. High volatility on oil market in its turn played on share quotation decreasing of Exploration Production KazMunaiGAz JSC.
Insignificant decrease level of falling of KASE market turnover inn June was provided with considerable support of series of "internal" deals with preferred shares of ATFBank JSC (ATFBp8) on June 19 and 23 and also 96.9% of same deals, concluded within month on STF RFCA.
By results of June weighted average day prices of 20% shares denominations increased (in May - 48%), 61% denominations (31%) - decreased, prices of 12% shares didn't changed (19%), 6% - was nothing to compare with (2%) on KASE. Maximum trend showed the following instruments: RMXR increased by 100.0%, ASND fell by 78.2%.
Below are the tables providing details on KASE share market in June 2008.
Tab. 1. Statistical characteristics of KASE share market in June 2008
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Trend to
----------------------
Indicator June 2008 May 2008 June 2007
-------------------------------------- --------- ---------- -----------
Trade volume, th. USD 449,489.7 -10.9,% -84.7,%
Trade volume, m. KZT 54,252.7 -10.9,% -84.9,%
including, on offerings, th. USD - Х Х
including, on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD 117,079.5 13.6,times 570.7,times
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 14,128.1 13.6,times 563.6,times
Deals 1,210 -11.4,% -42.1,%
Instruments in deals 49 +16.7,% 0
Daily average of deals 58 -15.8,% -42.1,%
Daily average volume of deals, th. USD 21,404.3 -15.2,% -84.7,%
Daily average volume of deals, m. KZT 2,583.5 -15.1,% -84.9,%
Stake of nego deals (number), % 3.5 +2.2,пп -0.7,пп
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 3.3 +0.4,пп +0.5,пп
Pension assets, % gross 3.30 -0.04,пп +2.1,пп
Individuals, % gross 19.0 -27.8,пп -23.4,пп
Non-residents, % gross 32.0 +10.3,пп +28.9,пп
KASE members, concluded deals 47 -4.1,% -6.0,%
Market concentration, %* 53.1 -37.0,пп -24.3,пп
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*percent of total share turnover, which falls on most tradable securities
(their number makes 5 % of the total of stocks, involved in deals)
Tab. 2. Industrial characteristics of KASE share market*
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Stake of total volume of market (%):
----------- ------------ -----------
June May June
Industry 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------- ----------- ------------ -----------
Finance 66.7 8.2 90.4
Telecommunications services 22.7 6.8 0.11
Power engineering 8.9 83.7 3.8
Discretional consumer sector
0.9 0.03 0.3
Raw material sector 0.5 0.3 0.005
Main consumer sector 0.2 0.8 5.1 Public services 0.1 0.1 0.06 Public health Х 0.001 0.002 Industry Х Х 0.2 Information technologies Х Х Х
------------------------------------------------------------------ *Industrial classification of turnover structure has been compiled in accordance with lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standart and Poor's
Tab. 3. Changes in shares tradable on KASE in June 2008 (as at the end of the month, change in month)
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Shares: Instruments: Issuers:
Admission ------------ ------------- ------------
category number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ -----
A 46 0 46 0 33 +1
B 49 +2 49 +2 41 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ -----
A+B 95 +2 95 +2 72 +2
------------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ -----
N 4 0 4 0 4 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ -----
A+B+N 99 +2 99 +2 76 +2
------------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 26 0 26 0 19 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ -----
A+B+C+N 103 +1 125 +2 79 +1
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Notes: "A", "B" - categories of KASE official list;
"C" - categories of STF RFCA official list; "А+В" - KASE official list; "А+В+N" - MTF KASE; "A+B+C+N" - total on KASE, including STF RFCA; due to STF RFCA launching securities (shares) of one denomination the re could be two exchange instruments, different in trading code, and trading and settlements terms.
Tab. 4. KASE index dynamics in various periods at the moment of trade close as on June 30, 2008 (basis actual/365)
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Trend:
-----------
Period % % APR
--------------------------- ----- -----
For preceding 30 days -1.5 -18.8
Since the beginning of 2008 -0.9 -1.7
For last 365 days (year) -3.2 -3.2
In 2007 +12.2 +12.2
Form the beginning of 2007 +11.2 +7.5
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Tab. 5. Main indicators of exchange purchase and sale share market in June 2008
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Market Volume of Volume of
capitalization, deals, deals, Number
Date m. USD KASE index th. USD m. KZT of deals
-------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- --------
30.05.08 96,462.1 2,654.89 12,623.5 1,522.0 60
02.06.08 96,485.5 2,660.03 2,024.7 244.3 24
03.06.08 96,904.7 2,692.87 15,042.0 1,816.2 51
04.06.08 93,293.4 2,663.16 19,559.7 2,361.4 63
05.06.08 93,256.7 2,675.69 21,501.4 2,594.6 102
06.06.08 94,597.4 2,688.12 17,675.7 2,131.9 68
09.06.08 94,327.3 2,657.31 12,727.9 1,536.3 77
10.06.08 93,635.3 2,636.89 11,574.6 1,397.0 71
11.06.08 94,893.4 2,693.79 10,304.8 1,244.0 103
12.06.08 93,893.0 2,681.89 8,856.9 1,069.5 51
13.06.08 94,429.0 2,688.61 125,694.3 15,167.5 94
16.06.08 93,430.3 2,665.38 4,597.0 554.8 46
17.06.08 92,833.1 2,630.66 26,587.2 3,209.6 94
18.06.08 94,254.8 2,619.56 885.1 106.8 25
19.06.08 94,735.5 2,628.07 129,520.9 15,634.5 45
20.06.08 95,162.8 2,686.14 5,838.5 704.8 91
23.06.08 94,980.7 2,641.41 5,959.8 719.5 47
24.06.08 93,912.7 2,594.42 2,688.2 324.7 32
25.06.08 94,579.3 2,617.11 406.0 49.1 15
26.06.08 94,763.4 2,625.40 3,483.9 420.6 28
27.06.08 95,202.6 2,675.85 6,912.0 834.6 45
30.06.08 94,856.6 2,613.76 17,649.1 2,131.1 38
-------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- --------
Trend -1,605.4 -41.1
% -1.7 -1.5
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Tab. 6. Results of trades in shares on KASE in June 2008 (according to data on deals, concluded on the secondary market by open trade method)
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Price, tenge per share:
---------------------------------------------------------------
by last deal for last 365 days Volume Num-
Share --------------- ------------------ of deals, ber of
symbol min. max. price trend,% min max th. USD deals
------ --------- --------- --------- ------ -------- --------- --------- ------
aASBN 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 111,864.4 2
aHSBKp 245.45 285.00 245.45 245.45 290.00 58.1 2
aKZIK 10,050.00 10,050.00 10,050.00 0 10,050.00 10,050.00 33.0 2
AMGZp 49,000.00 49,000.00 49,000.00 +63.3 30,000.00 49,000.00 265.8 1
aREAL 0.76 1.50 0.76 0.76 1.50 3,464.8 2
ASBN 18,000.00 19,800.00 18,501.01 +2.8 14,000.00 67,000.00 24.5 7
ASBNp1 10,000.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 0 10,000.00 24,725.00 44.0 4
ASFI 22,728.00 25,000.00 25,000.00 +10.0 9,700.00 25,000.00 7,110.9 16
ASFIp 20,000.00 22,728.00 22,728.00 +13.6 10,000.00 22,972.82 2,737.1 7
ATFB 8,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 13,055.00 0.1 1
ATFBp8 10,000.00 10,315.00 10,315.00 3,830.00 10,315.00 126,761.5 11
aUTMK 19,000.00 24,000.00 19,000.00 -24.0 19,000.00 27,000.00 1,659.2 13
BTAS 64,100.00 69,000.00 64,500.00 -4.4 850.01 157,275.00 8,320.8 112
CCBN 1,400.00 1,560.00 1,500.00 +4.9 1,000.00 2,050.00 4,526.7 110
CSBN 5,008.88 5,272.50 5,008.88 -5.0 3,850.00 8,000.00 71.2 5
CSBNp 2,280.00 2,280.00 2,280.00 2,001.00 3,000.00 0.2 1
DNBN 3,905.00 3,905.00 3,905.00 2,000.00 6,727.50 0.6 1
EXBN 1,950.00 2,200.00 1,950.00 -18.8 1,950.00 3,160.00 5,336.9 12
EXBNp 1,155.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 1,155.00 2,200.00 5,722.6 4
GB_E
NRC 3,200.00 3,550.00 3,550.00 -2.8 2,600.00 3,750.00 151.2 13
GB_K
ZMS 3,750.00 4,180.00 3,999.00 +5.2 2,640.00 4,600.00 82.7 16
HSBK 460.50 520.00 460.50 -9.9 385.00 720.00 1,155.4 60
HSBKp 245.45 285.00 245.45 -13.9 224.00 333.50 381.9 6
HSBKp1 295.45 295.45 295.45 -8.3 290.00 353.00 0.0 1
KIBN 300.00 300.00 300.00 -9.1 110.00 531.00 27.8 3
KKGB 890.00 1,079.00 933.00 -3.8 600.00 1,390.00 2,285.9 80
KKGBp 315.00 420.00 375.00 +13.6 255.00 499.00 474.5 27
KZIS 45,507.00 50,000.00 45,507.00 -21.5 45,507.00 65,000.00 86.3 3
KZTCp 1,750.00 1,750.00 1,750.00 -3.9 1,750.00 6,200.00 20.5 1
KZTK 32,800.00 41,000.00 36,850.00 +3.8 31,500.00 50,499.00 100,696.4 276
KZTKp 15,901.00 19,000.00 16,000.00 -5.9 14,500.00 24,600.00 726.3 57
LNAT 8,200.00 8,500.00 8,200.00 -3.5 1,649.44 9,999.00 57.0 2
MMGZp 12,000.01 20,000.00 15,998.00 +12.7 7,500.00 20,000.00 5,619.2 76
NFBN 4,500.00 4,900.00 4,500.00 -8.2 3,000.00 6,957.90 284.1 13
NRBN 21,000.00 22,000.00 21,000.00 17,500.00 37,950.00 52.7 3
ORDB 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 -9.1 2,500.00 4,150.00 0.0 1
PDES 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 0 920.00 1,095.59 248.5 1
RAHT 2,310.00 2,900.00 2,700.00 0 2,310.00 4,200.00 419.7 6
RDGZ 20,600.00 23,500.00 21,250.00 -4.1 13,000.00 24,595.00 30,720.0 168
RMXR 5.00 5.00 5.00 +100.0 1.00 5.00 2,070.4 2
ROSA 585.00 585.00 585.00 0 580.00 722.77 258.5 1
TEBN 6,500.00 7,000.01 7,000.01 0 4,450.46 9,000.00 7,753.8 14
TEBNp 2,551.00 2,805.00 2,805.00 +3.9 2,200.25 3,105.00 82.2 5
TSBN 1,770.01 1,925.00 1,770.01 0 1,680.01 4,500.00 35.7 3
UTMK 19,000.00 24,000.00 19,000.00 -24.0 19,000.00 27,010.00 467.6 16
VSTN 322,000.01 322,000.01 322,000.01 322,000.01 322,001.00 2,320.2 1
----- ---------- --------- --------- --------------- --------- ---------------
46 434,480.6 1,168
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Notes: The table provides data on the shares, in which the deals were concluded by one of the open trade methods. Trends (change in %) are provided in relation to the last deal of the preceding month (May 1 - 31, 2008). Trend is not computed, if there were no deals in the preceding month.
Tab. 7. Top 10 most liquid chares of KASE in June 2008, including STF RFCA
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Liquidity indicator calculation base (Kl):
Rank Liquidity ------------------------------------------
--------- indicator volume number number
June May Share of deals, number of KASE resultant
2008 2008 symbol Kl m. KZT of deals members days
---- ---- ------ ---------- ----------- ---------- -------- ----------
1 3 KZTK 2.87 12 153.6 276 49 20
2 1 RDGZ 2.21 3 708.5 168 48 21
3 2 BTAS 1.69 1 004.4 112 39 19
4 4 CCBN 1.48 546.5 110 29 20
5 5 KKGB 1.41 275.9 80 36 16
6 9 KZTKp 1.14 87.7 57 26 17
7 6 HSBK 1.07 139.5 60 25 14
8 13 MMGZp 0.87 678.4 76 15 11
9 - ATFBp8 0.65 15 301.4 11 3 2
10 14 KKGBp 0.64 57.3 27 16 9
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Notes: For calculation of Kl only data on deals concluded in KASE secondary market sector by one of the open trade methods are accounted. The methodology of calculation of this indicator is available in the corresponding section of the document, released at see more in Russian and at see more in English.
Tab. 8. Top 10 most capitalized listing companies of KASE, shares of which were listed on the official list of securities of the Exchange (as on the moment of trades close on the indicated dates)
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As on 30.06.08: As on 30.05.08: Trend:
Short or contraction ------------------- -------------------- ---------------
name- of company capitali- company capitali- company capitali-
(all, save zation stake zation stake zation stake
KAZAKHMYS PLС - JSC) rank m. USD % rank m. USD % m. USD pp
-------------------- ---- -------- ----- ---- -------- ------- --------- -----
ENRC PLС 1 37,859.3 39.77 1 39,005.3 40.44 -1,145.9 -0.67
KAZAKHMYS PLС 2 15,067.2 15.83 2 14,338.8 14.86 +728.4 +0.96
KazMunaiGas Explo-
ration
production JSC 3 12,533.4 13.17 3 13,087.7 13.57 -554.3 -0.40
Kazkommertsbank JSC 4 5,018.6 5.27 4 4,968.0 5.15 +50.6 +0.12
BTA Bank JSC 5 4,505.7 4.73 5 4,686.0 4.86 -180.3 -0.13
Halyk Savings Bank of
Kazakhstan JSC 6 4,136.6 4.35 6 4,435.6 4.60 -299.0 -0.25
Kazakhtelecom JSC 7 3,095.4 3.25 7 3,227.3 3.35 -131.9 -0.09
ATF Bank JSC 8 2,396.3 2.52 8 2,215.7 2.30 +180.6 +0.22
Bank CenterCredit JSC 9 1,649.3 1.73 9 1,543.7 1.60 +105.6 +0.13
Alliance Bank JSC 10 1,511.4 1.59 10 1,473.6 1.53 +37.8 +0.06
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Notes: The company stake, % - an indicator, received by cutting off market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market share of official list of securities of KASE and expressed in percent. As on the market close June 30, 2008 this indicator made USD95,202.6 m. 95 shares of 72 issuers were listed on the official list of KASE. The full list of codes of issuers with names of the companies is available at: see more
[2008-07-22]