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22.07.2008 23:22 #KASE news

ANALYSIS: In June 2008 tenge liquidity flow-in caused repo market growing on KASE

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, July 22, 2008/ - In June 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,746 deals were registered for the total of KZT1,669.3 bn. or USD13,827.3 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 59.2% of the KASE total June turnover (in May 2008 - 63.0 %).

Compared to May 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT268.8 bn. ($2,211.6 m.) or by 19.2 %. Relative to June 2007, the volume of transactions decreased by KZT866.8 bn. ($6,956.1 m.) or by 34.2% (by 33.5% expressed in dollar).

The exchange turnover stake in the total volume of repo deals on the Kazakhstan market in June on comparable operations totaled 100%. In May 2008 the stake was 100%

KASE repo market turnover structure in the analyzed month was as follows:

0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 90.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,516.7 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 77.5% (KZT1,293.7 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 13.4% (KZT223.0 bn.);

1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 9.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT152.6 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.7% (KZT11.5 bn.), deals in CS - 8.5% (KZT141.1 bn.).

For comparison, the structure of the stock exchange repo market in May 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 91.8% (GS -78.7%; CS - 13.1%); repo by nego method - 8.2% (GS - 0.8%; CS - 7.4%).

In June inflation reached maximum since year beginning: 1.2% to May and 20% in annual expression. The regular inflation growth contributed to rates increasing on repo exchange market on concluded deals in June. TONIA index increased from 0.38% APR in May to 1.38% APR in June. Repo rates growth peak traditionally came to tax payments period, when TONIA index reached 3.37% APR.

Growing prices on energy resources in June made significant influence on dollar. Mass sales of American currency turned out to be mass month volume of deals and added tenge liquidity on repo market, what explains insignificant repo rate growth and increased volume of deals on this market.

Decisions of National Bank on decreasing of official refinancing rate to 10.5% APR and the level of minimal reserve requirements to 5% on internal and 7% on other liabilities also prevent repo rates growth. These decisions will be effective since July 29, 2008.

Below are the tables which characterize primary segments of KASE repo market in April 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (8.5% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table).

Automatic repo with GS - 77.5% of the market

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
                                          Volume,  
Instrument  -------------------------------------            Num- Market       
(currency,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted      KZT ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       m. deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
KZT_000                                      0.50     100.0     1   0.02
KZT_001         0.50  0.15 10.00    1.50     1.38 604,294.3 1,457  91.40
KZT_002         2.00  0.50  2.00    1.50     0.63  10,259.0    16   1.55
KZT_003         0.60  0.60 10.00    3.50     5.59     681.0     6   0.10
KZT_007         2.50  2.00 12.00   12.00     4.11  18,331.0    49   2.77
KZT_014         4.00  4.00 12.00   11.00     7.67   6,199.0    26   0.94
KZT_028        12.00  4.00 12.00    4.00     6.72  21,268.0    36   3.22
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
TOTAL                                             661,132.4 1,591    100
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Automatic repo with CS - 13. 4% of the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
Instrument  -------------------------------------   Volume,   Num- Market
(security,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted        m. ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       KZT  deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ABDIb1_090                                  17.00     200.0      1   0.16
ASBNb1_014      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      38.0      3   0.03
ASBNb3_007      5.00  5.00  5.75    5.75     5.25     370.0      3   0.30
ASFI_001                                     5.00     235.0      1   0.19
ASFI_007       12.00  8.00 12.00   10.00    10.50   8,674.2     23   7.14
ASFI_030       11.50 11.50 11.84   11.50    11.77   7,627.1     10   6.28
ASFI_060       11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00   3,393.0      3   2.79
ASFI_090       11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00   6,002.1      6   4.94
ASFIb15001      5.00  5.00  5.00    5.00     5.00     435.0      2   0.36
ASFIb5_007      5.10  5.00  6.00    5.00     5.42   1,798.0      6   1.48
ASFIb5_014                                   8.50     237.0      1   0.20
ASFIp_014       9.00  9.00 10.00   10.00     9.58     405.0      2   0.33
ASFIp_028      11.84 11.00 11.84   11.84    11.76  17,169.3     34  14.14
ATFBb4_007      5.10  5.10  5.75    5.50     5.51   1,604.0      6   1.32
ATFBb4_014                                   6.30     170.0      1   0.14
ATFBb4_028                                  10.00     246.0      1   0.20
ATFBb6_001                                   3.00     100.0      1   0.08
ATFBb6_007                                   7.50      35.0      1   0.03
ATFBb6_028      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     570.0      4   0.47
BTAIb5_003                                   3.00     117.0      1   0.10
BTAIb5_007                                   5.10     117.0      1   0.10
BTAIb5_014                                   8.50     117.0      1   0.10
BTAIb5_028                                  11.00     350.0      1   0.29
BTAIb6_003                                   3.00     382.0      1   0.31
BTAIb6_007                                   5.10     381.0      1   0.31
BTAIb6_014                                   8.50     363.0      1   0.30
BTAIb7_030                                  11.00     350.0      1   0.29
BTAS_001        3.00  3.00  7.00    7.00     3.13   4,089.5     22   3.37
BTAS_007        7.00  5.00  8.50    8.50     7.20   8,721.3     55   7.18
BTAS_030       12.00 10.00 15.00   12.00    13.74   2,357.1      8   1.94
BTAS_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   4,700.3     10   3.87
BTASb4_014      6.00  6.00  8.50    8.50     6.89     135.0      3   0.11
BTASb4_028     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00     164.0      2   0.14
BTASb5_007      5.10  5.10  5.50    5.50     5.32     952.0      3   0.78
BTASb5_014      8.50  8.50  8.50    8.50     8.50     499.0      2   0.41
BTASb7_001                                   2.00     300.0      1   0.25
BTASb7_007      5.20  5.20  6.00    5.20     5.50   1,475.0      3   1.21
BTASb7_030     12.00 11.00 13.50   13.50    11.60   1,279.0      4   1.05
BTASb7_090     14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,600.0      4   1.32
BTASb9_001      5.00  5.00  5.00    5.00     5.00   1,080.0      2   0.89
BTASb9_004      7.00  5.00  7.00    5.00     6.72   2,330.0      2   1.92
BTASb9_007                                   7.50     585.0      1   0.48
CCBN_001        3.00  3.00  5.00    5.00     4.57     604.0      8   0.50
CCBN_007        5.50  5.50  9.00    7.70     7.47     465.0      6   0.38
CCBN_014        8.50  8.50 12.00   12.00     9.04     680.0     12   0.56
CCBN_030       12.00 11.00 12.00   11.00    11.95   4,345.0     11   3.58
CCBNb10030                                  10.50     499.0      1   0.41
CCBNb13007      5.60  5.50  5.75    5.60     5.61   1,323.0      6   1.09
CCBNb13014     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     390.0      2   0.32
CCBNb14007                                   5.30     100.0      1   0.08
CCBNb3_014                                   8.00     244.0      1   0.20
CCBNb4_007                                   7.50       9.0      1   0.01
CCBNb4_014      9.00  8.50  9.00    8.50     8.68      38.0      5   0.03
CCBNb9_007      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50      15.0      2   0.01
CCBNb9_014                                   7.50      11.0      1   0.01
CSBNb4_007      5.10  5.10  5.50    5.50     5.30     501.0      2   0.41
CSBNb4_014                                   8.50     250.0      1   0.21
CSBNb5_003                                   3.00     181.0      1   0.15
CSBNb5_007      5.10  5.10  5.75    5.75     5.43     362.0      2   0.30
CSBNb6_007      5.10  5.10  6.00    5.50     5.47     419.0      3   0.34
CSBNb6_014                                   8.50     161.0      1   0.13
DTJLb1_014      8.50  8.50  9.00    9.00     8.91     394.0      9   0.32
DTJLb1_030     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00     213.0      2   0.18
EUBNb3_007                                   5.30     200.0      1   0.16
EXBN_090       11.00 11.00 12.00   12.00    11.94   1,960.0      2   1.61
HSBKb10007      5.00  5.00  5.60    5.60     5.25     730.0      3   0.60
HSBKb11007      6.80  5.60  6.80    5.60     6.20     380.0      2   0.31
HSBKb11014                                   6.30     190.0      1   0.16
HSBKb3_001      3.00  3.00  3.00    3.00     3.00     220.0      2   0.18
HSBKp1_001      3.00  3.00  3.00    3.00     3.00      92.0      2   0.08
HSBKp1_003      7.00  6.00  7.00    6.00     6.57      14.0      2   0.01
HSBKp1_007      7.50  5.20  7.50    5.75     5.49   3,624.0      8   2.98
HSBKp1_014      8.00  8.00  8.50    8.00     8.30     758.0      3   0.62
KASTb1_028     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50     865.0      2   0.71
KKGB_001                                     3.00      70.0      1   0.06
KKGB_028                                    14.00      50.0      1   0.04
KKGBb2_007      5.50  5.50  5.75    5.75     5.63     485.1      2   0.40
KKGBb2_014                                   7.00     205.0      1   0.17
KZIKb3_028                                  10.50      94.0      1   0.08
KZTCb1_001                                   7.50       8.0      1   0.01
KZTK_001        3.00  3.00  3.50    3.00     3.12     999.3     20   0.82
KZTK_014        6.00  6.00  8.50    8.50     7.31      63.0      2   0.05
NFBN_001        8.00  4.00  8.00    7.00     7.44   2,545.0     37   2.10
NFBN_007        7.00  7.00 10.00   10.00     7.89      45.0      5   0.04
NFBN_028       11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00   1,074.0     13   0.88
NFBNb1_007                                   8.00       9.0      1   0.01
ORDB_003       10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     130.0      3   0.11
ORDB_007        9.00  7.00 10.00    7.00     9.04     312.0      4   0.26
ORDB_014       10.00 10.00 13.20   12.00    13.06     432.0      4   0.36
ORDB_028       14.50 14.50 15.00   14.50    14.64     898.0      9   0.74
ORDB_090       13.00 13.00 14.50   13.00    13.93     635.0      8   0.52
ORDBb2_001      4.00  3.50  4.00    3.50     3.64     162.0      3   0.13
ORNKb1_001                                   5.00      45.0      1   0.04
ORNKb1_007      8.00  8.00 10.00   10.00     8.06      94.0      8   0.08
ORNKb1_014      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      34.0      2   0.03
ORNKb1_028                                  12.50      15.0      1   0.01
PRKRb2_007      4.10  4.10  4.10    4.10     4.10     560.0      2   0.46
PRKRb2_014                                   5.00     140.0      1   0.12
RDGZ_001        5.00  3.00  5.00    3.00     3.71     155.0      2   0.13
RDGZ_007        7.00  5.50  8.50    8.50     6.87   1,399.1      9   1.15
RDGZ_014        8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     280.0      2   0.23
RGBRb4_001                                   5.00      80.0      1   0.07
RGBRb4_014                                   8.50      30.0      1   0.02
RGBRb5_007      8.50  8.50  9.00    9.00     8.59     923.0      3   0.76
RGBRb5_028     11.00 11.00 11.50   11.50    11.22     158.0      3   0.13
ROSA_003       13.00 13.00 14.00   14.00    13.58     287.0      7   0.24
ROSA_007       18.00 18.00 18.00   18.00    18.00     931.0     17   0.77
ROSA_028       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     180.0      2   0.15
TEBN_001        3.00  3.00  3.00    3.00     3.00   1,434.0     13   1.18
TEBN_007        6.00  6.00  7.50    7.50     6.50   1,171.0      9   0.96
TEBN_014       10.50  8.00 10.50    8.00     8.85     816.0      6   0.67
TEBN_030       10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     238.0      2   0.20
TSBN_001                                     5.00       1.0      1   0.00
TSBN_007                                     7.50     250.0      1   0.21
TSBN_014        8.50  8.00  8.50    8.00     8.13     241.0     13   0.20
TSBN_030       10.50 10.50 10.50   10.50    10.50     286.0      3   0.24
TSSMb1_014                                   8.00       8.0      1   0.01
UTMK_030       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,500.0      3   1.23
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ИТОГО                                             121,462.9    575    100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.7% of the market

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Repo rate, % APR
Term of  -----------------------------------------  Volume,    Num-  Market
 repo,   on first  mini-  maxi-  on last  weighted       m.  ber of  share,
 days        deal    mum    mum     deal   average      KZT   deals       %
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
1            3.00   3.00  10.00     4.00      5.61    255.9       6    3.35
2            2.00   2.00  11.50    11.50      4.88    165.4       4    2.16
3            4.00   0.00  11.00     8.00      7.66  3,760.1      13   49.23
4            5.50   1.60   5.50     1.63      1.99    288.0       3    3.77
5                                             3.60      5.0       1    0.07
6                                             4.50    250.0       1    3.27
7            8.00   5.71   8.50     8.50      7.21    543.4      14    7.11
8            4.63   4.63  10.00    10.00      7.81    186.7       4    2.44
9            7.00   5.47   7.00     5.47      6.26    145.0       4    1.90
10           9.50   9.50   9.50     9.50      9.50     94.1       2    1.23
11          10.00  10.00  10.00    10.00     10.00    104.0       2    1.36
13           8.01   7.00   8.01     7.00      7.94    688.0       2    9.01
14                                           10.00     20.7       1    0.27
15           6.00   6.00   6.00     6.00      6.00    160.0       3    2.09
16                                            6.25     70.0       1    0.92
18                                           10.01     54.0       1    0.71
21                                            6.51     74.7       1    0.98
23                                            9.00     39.0       1    0.51
24                                            9.50     50.4       1    0.66
28           9.00   6.91   9.00     6.91      7.86    156.4       2    2.05
30          11.00  11.00  11.00    11.00     11.00    467.6       6    6.12
60           8.50   8.50   8.50     8.50      8.50     59.9       2    0.78
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
TOTAL                                               7,638.5      75     100
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[2008-07-22]