ANALYSIS: In June 2008 tenge liquidity flow-in caused repo market growing on KASE

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, July 22, 2008/ - In June 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,746 deals were registered for the total of KZT1,669.3 bn. or USD13,827.3 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 59.2% of the KASE total June turnover (in May 2008 - 63.0 %). Compared to May 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT268.8 bn. ($2,211.6 m.) or by 19.2 %. Relative to June 2007, the volume of transactions decreased by KZT866.8 bn. ($6,956.1 m.) or by 34.2% (by 33.5% expressed in dollar). The exchange turnover stake in the total volume of repo deals on the Kazakhstan market in June on comparable operations totaled 100%. In May 2008 the stake was 100% KASE repo market turnover structure in the analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 90.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,516.7 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 77.5% (KZT1,293.7 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 13.4% (KZT223.0 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 9.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT152.6 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.7% (KZT11.5 bn.), deals in CS - 8.5% (KZT141.1 bn.). For comparison, the structure of the stock exchange repo market in May 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 91.8% (GS -78.7%; CS - 13.1%); repo by nego method - 8.2% (GS - 0.8%; CS - 7.4%). In June inflation reached maximum since year beginning: 1.2% to May and 20% in annual expression. The regular inflation growth contributed to rates increasing on repo exchange market on concluded deals in June. TONIA index increased from 0.38% APR in May to 1.38% APR in June. Repo rates growth peak traditionally came to tax payments period, when TONIA index reached 3.37% APR. Growing prices on energy resources in June made significant influence on dollar. Mass sales of American currency turned out to be mass month volume of deals and added tenge liquidity on repo market, what explains insignificant repo rate growth and increased volume of deals on this market. Decisions of National Bank on decreasing of official refinancing rate to 10.5% APR and the level of minimal reserve requirements to 5% on internal and 7% on other liabilities also prevent repo rates growth. These decisions will be effective since July 29, 2008. Below are the tables which characterize primary segments of KASE repo market in April 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (8.5% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 77.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Volume, Instrument ------------------------------------- Num- Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_000 0.50 100.0 1 0.02 KZT_001 0.50 0.15 10.00 1.50 1.38 604,294.3 1,457 91.40 KZT_002 2.00 0.50 2.00 1.50 0.63 10,259.0 16 1.55 KZT_003 0.60 0.60 10.00 3.50 5.59 681.0 6 0.10 KZT_007 2.50 2.00 12.00 12.00 4.11 18,331.0 49 2.77 KZT_014 4.00 4.00 12.00 11.00 7.67 6,199.0 26 0.94 KZT_028 12.00 4.00 12.00 4.00 6.72 21,268.0 36 3.22 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ TOTAL 661,132.4 1,591 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 13. 4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ABDIb1_090 17.00 200.0 1 0.16 ASBNb1_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 38.0 3 0.03 ASBNb3_007 5.00 5.00 5.75 5.75 5.25 370.0 3 0.30 ASFI_001 5.00 235.0 1 0.19 ASFI_007 12.00 8.00 12.00 10.00 10.50 8,674.2 23 7.14 ASFI_030 11.50 11.50 11.84 11.50 11.77 7,627.1 10 6.28 ASFI_060 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 3,393.0 3 2.79 ASFI_090 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 6,002.1 6 4.94 ASFIb15001 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 435.0 2 0.36 ASFIb5_007 5.10 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.42 1,798.0 6 1.48 ASFIb5_014 8.50 237.0 1 0.20 ASFIp_014 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.58 405.0 2 0.33 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.00 11.84 11.84 11.76 17,169.3 34 14.14 ATFBb4_007 5.10 5.10 5.75 5.50 5.51 1,604.0 6 1.32 ATFBb4_014 6.30 170.0 1 0.14 ATFBb4_028 10.00 246.0 1 0.20 ATFBb6_001 3.00 100.0 1 0.08 ATFBb6_007 7.50 35.0 1 0.03 ATFBb6_028 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 570.0 4 0.47 BTAIb5_003 3.00 117.0 1 0.10 BTAIb5_007 5.10 117.0 1 0.10 BTAIb5_014 8.50 117.0 1 0.10 BTAIb5_028 11.00 350.0 1 0.29 BTAIb6_003 3.00 382.0 1 0.31 BTAIb6_007 5.10 381.0 1 0.31 BTAIb6_014 8.50 363.0 1 0.30 BTAIb7_030 11.00 350.0 1 0.29 BTAS_001 3.00 3.00 7.00 7.00 3.13 4,089.5 22 3.37 BTAS_007 7.00 5.00 8.50 8.50 7.20 8,721.3 55 7.18 BTAS_030 12.00 10.00 15.00 12.00 13.74 2,357.1 8 1.94 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,700.3 10 3.87 BTASb4_014 6.00 6.00 8.50 8.50 6.89 135.0 3 0.11 BTASb4_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 164.0 2 0.14 BTASb5_007 5.10 5.10 5.50 5.50 5.32 952.0 3 0.78 BTASb5_014 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 499.0 2 0.41 BTASb7_001 2.00 300.0 1 0.25 BTASb7_007 5.20 5.20 6.00 5.20 5.50 1,475.0 3 1.21 BTASb7_030 12.00 11.00 13.50 13.50 11.60 1,279.0 4 1.05 BTASb7_090 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,600.0 4 1.32 BTASb9_001 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1,080.0 2 0.89 BTASb9_004 7.00 5.00 7.00 5.00 6.72 2,330.0 2 1.92 BTASb9_007 7.50 585.0 1 0.48 CCBN_001 3.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 4.57 604.0 8 0.50 CCBN_007 5.50 5.50 9.00 7.70 7.47 465.0 6 0.38 CCBN_014 8.50 8.50 12.00 12.00 9.04 680.0 12 0.56 CCBN_030 12.00 11.00 12.00 11.00 11.95 4,345.0 11 3.58 CCBNb10030 10.50 499.0 1 0.41 CCBNb13007 5.60 5.50 5.75 5.60 5.61 1,323.0 6 1.09 CCBNb13014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 390.0 2 0.32 CCBNb14007 5.30 100.0 1 0.08 CCBNb3_014 8.00 244.0 1 0.20 CCBNb4_007 7.50 9.0 1 0.01 CCBNb4_014 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.68 38.0 5 0.03 CCBNb9_007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 15.0 2 0.01 CCBNb9_014 7.50 11.0 1 0.01 CSBNb4_007 5.10 5.10 5.50 5.50 5.30 501.0 2 0.41 CSBNb4_014 8.50 250.0 1 0.21 CSBNb5_003 3.00 181.0 1 0.15 CSBNb5_007 5.10 5.10 5.75 5.75 5.43 362.0 2 0.30 CSBNb6_007 5.10 5.10 6.00 5.50 5.47 419.0 3 0.34 CSBNb6_014 8.50 161.0 1 0.13 DTJLb1_014 8.50 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.91 394.0 9 0.32 DTJLb1_030 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 213.0 2 0.18 EUBNb3_007 5.30 200.0 1 0.16 EXBN_090 11.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 11.94 1,960.0 2 1.61 HSBKb10007 5.00 5.00 5.60 5.60 5.25 730.0 3 0.60 HSBKb11007 6.80 5.60 6.80 5.60 6.20 380.0 2 0.31 HSBKb11014 6.30 190.0 1 0.16 HSBKb3_001 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 220.0 2 0.18 HSBKp1_001 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 92.0 2 0.08 HSBKp1_003 7.00 6.00 7.00 6.00 6.57 14.0 2 0.01 HSBKp1_007 7.50 5.20 7.50 5.75 5.49 3,624.0 8 2.98 HSBKp1_014 8.00 8.00 8.50 8.00 8.30 758.0 3 0.62 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 865.0 2 0.71 KKGB_001 3.00 70.0 1 0.06 KKGB_028 14.00 50.0 1 0.04 KKGBb2_007 5.50 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.63 485.1 2 0.40 KKGBb2_014 7.00 205.0 1 0.17 KZIKb3_028 10.50 94.0 1 0.08 KZTCb1_001 7.50 8.0 1 0.01 KZTK_001 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.00 3.12 999.3 20 0.82 KZTK_014 6.00 6.00 8.50 8.50 7.31 63.0 2 0.05 NFBN_001 8.00 4.00 8.00 7.00 7.44 2,545.0 37 2.10 NFBN_007 7.00 7.00 10.00 10.00 7.89 45.0 5 0.04 NFBN_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 1,074.0 13 0.88 NFBNb1_007 8.00 9.0 1 0.01 ORDB_003 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 130.0 3 0.11 ORDB_007 9.00 7.00 10.00 7.00 9.04 312.0 4 0.26 ORDB_014 10.00 10.00 13.20 12.00 13.06 432.0 4 0.36 ORDB_028 14.50 14.50 15.00 14.50 14.64 898.0 9 0.74 ORDB_090 13.00 13.00 14.50 13.00 13.93 635.0 8 0.52 ORDBb2_001 4.00 3.50 4.00 3.50 3.64 162.0 3 0.13 ORNKb1_001 5.00 45.0 1 0.04 ORNKb1_007 8.00 8.00 10.00 10.00 8.06 94.0 8 0.08 ORNKb1_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 34.0 2 0.03 ORNKb1_028 12.50 15.0 1 0.01 PRKRb2_007 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 560.0 2 0.46 PRKRb2_014 5.00 140.0 1 0.12 RDGZ_001 5.00 3.00 5.00 3.00 3.71 155.0 2 0.13 RDGZ_007 7.00 5.50 8.50 8.50 6.87 1,399.1 9 1.15 RDGZ_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 280.0 2 0.23 RGBRb4_001 5.00 80.0 1 0.07 RGBRb4_014 8.50 30.0 1 0.02 RGBRb5_007 8.50 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.59 923.0 3 0.76 RGBRb5_028 11.00 11.00 11.50 11.50 11.22 158.0 3 0.13 ROSA_003 13.00 13.00 14.00 14.00 13.58 287.0 7 0.24 ROSA_007 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 931.0 17 0.77 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 180.0 2 0.15 TEBN_001 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1,434.0 13 1.18 TEBN_007 6.00 6.00 7.50 7.50 6.50 1,171.0 9 0.96 TEBN_014 10.50 8.00 10.50 8.00 8.85 816.0 6 0.67 TEBN_030 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 238.0 2 0.20 TSBN_001 5.00 1.0 1 0.00 TSBN_007 7.50 250.0 1 0.21 TSBN_014 8.50 8.00 8.50 8.00 8.13 241.0 13 0.20 TSBN_030 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 286.0 3 0.24 TSSMb1_014 8.00 8.0 1 0.01 UTMK_030 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,500.0 3 1.23 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ИТОГО 121,462.9 575 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.7% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 3.00 3.00 10.00 4.00 5.61 255.9 6 3.35 2 2.00 2.00 11.50 11.50 4.88 165.4 4 2.16 3 4.00 0.00 11.00 8.00 7.66 3,760.1 13 49.23 4 5.50 1.60 5.50 1.63 1.99 288.0 3 3.77 5 3.60 5.0 1 0.07 6 4.50 250.0 1 3.27 7 8.00 5.71 8.50 8.50 7.21 543.4 14 7.11 8 4.63 4.63 10.00 10.00 7.81 186.7 4 2.44 9 7.00 5.47 7.00 5.47 6.26 145.0 4 1.90 10 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 94.1 2 1.23 11 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 104.0 2 1.36 13 8.01 7.00 8.01 7.00 7.94 688.0 2 9.01 14 10.00 20.7 1 0.27 15 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 160.0 3 2.09 16 6.25 70.0 1 0.92 18 10.01 54.0 1 0.71 21 6.51 74.7 1 0.98 23 9.00 39.0 1 0.51 24 9.50 50.4 1 0.66 28 9.00 6.91 9.00 6.91 7.86 156.4 2 2.05 30 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 467.6 6 6.12 60 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 59.9 2 0.78 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 7,638.5 75 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-07-22]