ANALYSIS: In April 2008 volume of transactions with US dollar on KASE increased on the background of final quarter payments by banks and their clients

/IRBIS, Vitaliy Tomskiy, May 15, 08/ - In April 2008 volume of foreign currency transactions made in Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached the equivalent of USD8,143.8 m. or KZT981,197.3 m., relative to March of 2008, volume of deals increased by $2,010.7 m. (KZT241,181.5 m.) or by 32.8% in terms of dollar or 32.6% in terms of tenge. Relative to April of 2007 trade volume increased by 38.1 % in terms of dollar and 36.4 times in terms of tenge. The stake of this sector in stock exchange's turnover increased from 33.9% in March, 2008 to 34.5% in April 2008. Total of 4,536 deals (3,207) were made in April 2008 on KASE (here and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses), including: in US dollars on TOD terms - 4,292 (2,984), on TOM terms - 167 (190), on SPOT terms - 50 (13); in euros - 3 (1), in Russian ruble - 24 (19). Of the whole volume of concluded deals in April 2008 in total turnover of exchange's currency market was 99.95% to the stake of US dollar. In previous month the stake was 99.94%. In April morning (main) session controlled 39.2% (31.9%) of exchange turnover of currency market. To the stake of day session came 30.36% (38.1%), evening session - 30.43% (30.0%). On US dollars the volume of transactions on KASE in April 2008 reached $8,139.7 m. (KZT980,704.1 m.). To compare, in March 2008 this figure equaled to $6,129.4 m. (KZT739,579.7 m.), in April 2007 - $5,895.5 m. (KZT719,393.3 m.). In April 2008 tenge to dollar strengthened with the speed of 3.08% APR. In previous month the corresponding index equaled 1.55% APR. Weighted average rate of U.S. dollar to tenge, calculated on deals of the main session in April 2008 is KZT120.46 per unit, on all exchange's deals - 120.48. For March 2008 these indicators were KZT120.67 and KZT120.66 per dollar. In euro the volume of transactions in KASE in April 2008 made 1.5 m. euro for the amount of KZT285.7 m. (in March 2008 - 0.5 m. euro for the amount of KZT92.9 m.). Judging by chancing of weighted average exchange rate (12.03.2008 = 185.86; 28.04.2008 = 189.19) in analyzing month tenge to dollar devaluated with average speed of 14.8% APR. On Russian ruble the volume of transactions in KASE in April 2008 made RUB40,500 th. for a total of KZT207.4 m. (in March volume of operations was RUB67,400th at KZT343.2 m.). Judging by changes of average weighted exchange rate (01.04.2008 = 5.1370; 30.04.2008 = 5.0847) in analyzing month the speed of tenge appreciation to ruble estimate as 12.09%APR. April on US dollar market of Kazakhstan continued the tendency of previous month. Fluctuation of American currency was in stable price range, supported by position of the National Bank. In analyzing period regulator was mainly net-buyer, restraining undesirable volatility. At that the growth of volume of operations mostly was determined by activity of traditional factors, one of which was conducting by banks and their clients final quarter payments in the budget. The situation with short term tenge liquidity in this period was rather problematic. In support of this - indicator TONIA (weighted average rate on repo deal - "overnight"), which made 6 months maximum in April. It should be pointed out that in April net gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country increased to $20.72 bn. as well as assets of the National oil fund ($23.3 bn.), what makes support to national currency. At that, since May 18 in Kazakhstan export tax on oil is introduced, that will also contribute to growth of reserves (by government evaluation, this measure will let increase united incomes on $1 bn.). Let us remind that in 2007 deficit of the current bil made 8% of GDP, what made serious pressure on tenge. However, by preliminary data of the National bank, the 1 st Q of current year the country finished with surplus bil of current operations, which made $4 bn. This fact will let to increase net gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country without damage to possible strong appreciation of American currency to tenge. That's why we forecast in May reserving of fluctuations in tenge exchange rate to US dollar in the current price limits. However volatility on the market should grow. [2008-05-15]