ANALYSIS: In April 2008 decreasing of short-term tenge liquidity led to turn of repo rates on KASE upward

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, May 15, 08/ - In April 2008 at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,765 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,739.7 bn. or USD14,440.4 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 61.2% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in March 2008 - 61.6%). Compared to March 2008 the volume of repo transactions increased by KZT406.1 bn. ($3,386.9 m.) or by 30.5%. Relative to April 2007 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT427.4 bn. ($3,326.2 m.) or 19.7 % (18.7 % in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in April on comparable operations totaled 100%, in March 2008 - 100%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 93.8% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,631.3 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 80.8% (KZT1,405.0 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 13.0% (KZT226.3 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 6.2% of the sector's turnover (KZT108.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.0% (KZT16.7 bn.), deals in CS - 5.2% (KZT13.0 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in March, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 93.9% (GS - 74.2%; CS - 19.7%); repo by nego method - 6.1% (GS - 1.0%; CS - 5.1%). The exchange repo market demonstrated turn upward. In April participants felt necessity in short moneys, what provoked the growth of rate on concluded deals. IRBIS specialists connect this fact with budget payments by the results of quarter. Besides, the payment of annual income tax lied ahead. Participants, who have free assets mostly preferred to deposit in short term notes of the National Bank, which volume of supply has increased. Besides, the yield on these notes shows growth tendency since year beginning, what looks logic on the background of growing inflation (in April the level of inflation in annual term made 19.1%). This situation demanded participation of the head bank of the country, which had to actively add liquidity on the market. In May, IRBIS specialists don't expect significant growth of activity in this sector of exchange market because of toughening of demands of state agency of financial supervision to minimal amount o reserve capital of second tier banks with the aim to cover possible expenses from bank activity and increase financial stability of banks. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in April 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.2% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 80.8% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Num- Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, ber Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_001 1.50 0.00 19.00 1.00 5.17 573,104.3 1596 83.39 KZT_002 0.50 0.40 5.50 3.50 3.64 9,604.0 18 1.40 KZT_003 1.50 1.50 12.00 5.00 5.53 1,585.0 6 0.23 KZT_007 5.00 3.50 11.00 4.25 7.48 88,369.0 230 12.86 KZT_014 5.00 5.00 12.00 9.00 10.57 1,194.0 7 0.17 KZT_028 12.00 6.00 12.00 8.00 8.58 13,376.0 51 1.95 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ TOTAL 687,232.4 1,908 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 13.0% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_090 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 2,004.0 5 1.80 ASBNb1_002 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 15.0 1 0.01 ASBNb1_007 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.78 46.0 3 0.04 ASBNb3_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 128.0 1 0.12 ASBNb3_003 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 136.0 1 0.12 ASBNb3_007 7.25 7.25 8.00 8.00 7.62 250.0 2 0.22 ASBNb4_001 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 131.0 1 0.12 ASBNp1_090 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 10.0 1 0.01 ASFI_001 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 500.0 1 0.45 ASFI_007 8.00 8.00 11.50 8.00 9.36 3,374.1 9 3.04 ASFI_030 11.50 11.50 13.00 13.00 12.13 1,769.0 5 1.59 ASFI_090 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,625.0 1 1.46 ASFIb5_001 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 120.0 1 0.11 ASFIb5_003 4.20 4.00 7.50 6.50 5.41 1,184.0 5 1.07 ASFIb5_007 6.50 6.50 8.00 8.00 7.21 824.0 8 0.74 ASFIb5_014 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 161.0 1 0.14 ASFIb5_030 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 124.0 1 0.11 ASFIb7_001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 150.0 1 0.13 ASFIb7_003 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 290.0 1 0.26 ASFIp_001 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.0 1 0.00 ASFIp_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 470.0 1 0.42 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 9,324.1 21 8.39 ATFBb3_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 28.0 1 0.03 ATFBb4_001 6.70 5.50 7.50 5.50 6.25 542.0 3 0.49 ATFBb4_002 6.70 6.70 7.50 7.50 6.92 412.0 3 0.37 ATFBb4_014 7.50 7.50 8.50 8.50 7.54 360.0 4 0.32 ATFBb6_001 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 150.0 2 0.13 ATFBb6_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 460.0 3 0.41 BTAIb6_001 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 250.0 1 0.22 BTAIb6_007 7.25 7.00 7.25 7.00 7.22 430.0 7 0.39 BTAIb8_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 100.0 1 0.09 BTAS_001 5.00 3.00 12.00 9.00 7.76 770.2 10 0.69 BTAS_007 6.00 6.00 10.50 9.50 8.00 1,747.7 28 1.57 BTAS_030 11.00 9.00 15.00 15.00 14.06 4,541.3 13 4.09 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 3,200.1 7 2.88 BTASb1_007 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 520.0 1 0.47 BTASb1_030 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 200.0 1 0.18 BTASb2_028 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 38.0 3 0.03 BTASb4_007 5.00 5.00 7.00 7.00 5.50 40.0 3 0.04 BTASb4_014 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 41.0 5 0.04 BTASb5_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 500.0 1 0.45 BTASb5_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 509.0 1 0.46 BTASb7_001 4.00 4.00 11.00 7.00 8.11 496.0 4 0.45 BTASb7_007 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.06 885.0 5 0.80 BTASb7_030 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 293.0 2 0.26 BTASb7_090 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 1,413.0 3 1.27 BTLZb1_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 115.0 1 0.10 BTTRb1_001 9.00 3.50 9.00 5.00 6.73 3,605.0 15 3.24 BTTRb1_003 10.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 8.54 837.0 2 0.75 CCBN_001 7.00 3.50 8.00 7.50 7.19 303.0 8 0.27 CCBN_007 9.00 6.70 9.50 9.50 8.66 292.0 6 0.26 CCBN_014 10.00 9.00 10.50 9.50 9.81 709.0 10 0.64 CCBN_030 11.00 10.50 12.00 11.00 11.26 783.0 19 0.70 CCBN_090 12.00 10.00 14.00 14.00 12.26 10,683.0 10 9.61 CCBNb13007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 187.0 1 0.17 CCBNb13014 7.50 7.50 9.50 9.50 8.52 364.0 2 0.33 CCBNb14007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.0 1 0.01 CCBNb4_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 10.0 1 0.01 CCBNb7_001 7.00 5.00 7.00 5.00 6.00 20.0 2 0.02 CCBNb7_003 6.00 6.00 10.00 9.00 7.79 58.0 6 0.05 CCBNb9_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 15.0 1 0.01 CCBNb9_003 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 15.0 1 0.01 CCBNb9_007 12.00 9.00 12.00 9.00 10.50 30.0 2 0.03 CCBNb9_014 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 15.0 1 0.01 CSBNb4_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 100.0 1 0.09 CSBNb4_007 8.00 7.00 8.00 7.50 7.51 597.0 5 0.54 CSBNb5_007 7.65 7.00 7.65 7.00 7.33 369.0 2 0.33 CSBNb6_001 4.00 2.00 7.00 7.00 4.73 576.0 3 0.52 CSBNb6_007 8.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.64 472.0 3 0.42 DNBN_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 60.0 1 0.05 DTJLb1_001 7.00 5.00 8.00 8.00 6.22 366.0 8 0.33 DTJLb1_007 9.00 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.61 140.0 3 0.13 EUBNb3_001 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 870.0 3 0.78 EUBNb3_007 7.00 7.00 10.30 10.30 7.49 802.0 4 0.72 EUBNb3_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 91.0 1 0.08 EUBNb3_028 10.00 8.50 11.00 11.00 10.60 932.0 5 0.84 HSBK_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 10.0 1 0.01 HSBKb3_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 45.0 1 0.04 HSBKb9_014 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.61 127.0 2 0.11 HSBKp1_001 4.00 4.00 8.50 8.50 7.91 1,140.0 2 1.03 HSBKp1_003 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 190.0 1 0.17 HSBKp1_007 6.50 6.50 10.30 8.00 8.05 3,042.0 27 2.74 HSBKp1_014 7.50 7.50 9.00 8.00 7.90 878.0 5 0.79 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 859.0 1 0.77 KKAGb3_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 150.0 1 0.13 KKGB_001 7.00 6.00 7.00 6.00 6.09 66.0 2 0.06 KKGB_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 29.0 1 0.03 KKGB_028 11.50 10.50 14.00 10.50 13.62 56.0 3 0.05 KKGBb2_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 151.0 1 0.14 KKGBb2_003 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 100.0 1 0.09 KKGBb2_007 7.50 6.70 8.70 8.70 7.37 456.1 3 0.41 KKGBb2_014 8.00 7.50 9.50 9.50 8.12 849.1 3 0.76 KKGBb2_028 9.00 9.00 11.00 10.00 10.45 600.3 6 0.54 KKGBb5_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.0 1 0.01 KZIKb10028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 170.0 1 0.15 KZIKb12028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 180.0 2 0.16 KZIKb2_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 120.0 1 0.11 KZIKb8_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 180.0 3 0.16 KZTCb1_007 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 15.0 1 0.01 KZTK_007 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 28.0 1 0.03 KZTK_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 27.0 2 0.02 NFBN_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 100.0 1 0.09 NFBN_028 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.67 2,892.0 25 2.60 NRBNb2_003 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 188.0 1 0.17 NRBNb2_007 5.00 5.00 10.30 10.30 8.77 672.0 4 0.60 NRBNb2_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 280.0 1 0.25 NRBNb4_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 234.0 1 0.21 NRBNb4_007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 464.0 2 0.42 NRBNb5_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 671.0 1 0.60 NRBNb5_007 7.50 7.50 10.00 10.00 8.33 2,033.0 3 1.83 ORDB_003 6.00 6.00 8.50 7.00 6.88 442.0 5 0.40 ORDB_007 13.00 8.50 13.00 8.50 11.08 262.0 3 0.24 ORDB_014 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 150.0 2 0.13 ORDB_028 14.50 14.50 15.00 14.50 14.68 1,118.0 12 1.01 ORDBb2_001 7.50 4.50 11.50 4.50 7.54 2,873.0 13 2.58 ORDBb2_007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 152.0 1 0.14 ORDBb2_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 723.0 1 0.65 ORDBb2_028 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 1,000.0 1 0.90 ORNKb1_007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 15.0 1 0.01 PRKRb2_001 5.25 4.50 6.50 5.00 5.63 2,649.0 5 2.38 PRKRb2_003 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.50 1,207.0 2 1.09 PRKRb2_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,000.0 1 0.90 PRKRb2_028 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 785.0 2 0.71 RDGZ_001 5.00 5.00 12.00 7.00 7.32 3,757.1 18 3.38 RDGZ_007 6.50 5.00 12.00 7.50 8.44 2,002.1 18 1.80 RDGZ_014 7.50 7.50 9.00 8.00 7.74 341.1 10 0.31 RDGZ_028 10.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 10.86 255.0 4 0.23 RGBRb5_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 40.0 1 0.04 RGBRb5_028 10.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 10.26 90.0 2 0.08 ROSA_007 7.00 7.00 15.00 15.00 7.25 128.0 2 0.12 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 180.0 2 0.16 ROSA_090 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 122.0 1 0.11 TEBN_007 6.50 6.50 9.50 8.50 9.13 1,020.0 13 0.92 TEBN_014 9.00 9.00 10.50 9.00 9.27 951.0 10 0.86 TEBN_030 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 272.0 2 0.24 TEBNp_001 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 15.0 1 0.01 TEBNp_003 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 20.0 2 0.02 TEBNp_030 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 15.0 1 0.01 TSBN_001 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 23.0 1 0.02 TSBN_003 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 29.0 1 0.03 TSBN_014 9.00 9.00 11.00 10.50 9.40 411.0 15 0.37 TSSMb1_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 305.0 1 0.27 TSSMb1_007 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 113.0 1 0.10 UTMK_007 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 6,000.2 12 5.40 UTMK_030 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,500.1 3 1.35 VITAb5_014 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 160.0 1 0.14 VITAb5_030 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.0 1 0.01 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 111,141.2 596 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.0% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 3.50 2.00 9.50 2.00 7.08 2,159.9 16 26.58 2 8.00 4.00 8.00 4.00 5.24 179.4 6 2.21 3 8.00 4.50 8.00 4.50 7.28 97.0 2 1.19 4 8.00 3.00 11.50 11.50 5.90 295.2 4 3.63 5 5.00 4.30 6.00 4.30 5.26 140.9 3 1.73 7 7.00 4.50 9.00 6.50 6.69 1,610.5 18 19.81 8 7.00 3.00 8.56 3.00 6.14 265.1 4 3.26 10 6.50 5.45 6.50 5.45 6.06 240.8 4 2.96 11 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 171.3 3 2.11 12 5.88 5.88 9.01 8.01 7.86 1,053.1 12 12.96 13 6.23 6.02 6.23 6.02 6.17 147.2 2 1.81 14 5.61 5.61 10.00 6.00 8.15 632.1 10 7.78 15 6.64 6.64 6.64 6.64 6.64 50.0 1 0.62 16 8.32 8.32 8.32 8.32 8.32 60.0 1 0.74 18 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 40.0 1 0.49 24 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 400.0 4 4.92 25 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82 30.9 1 0.38 27 9.01 9.01 9.01 9.01 9.01 103.5 1 1.27 29 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 49.5 1 0.61 30 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 28.0 1 0.34 32 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 50.1 1 0.62 37 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 20.0 1 0.25 44 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 40.0 1 0.49 54 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 77.0 1 0.95 60 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 110.9 2 1.36 61 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 75.4 2 0.93 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 8,127.6 103 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-05-15]