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15.05.2008 22:33 #KASE news

ANALYSIS: In April 2008 decreasing of short-term tenge liquidity led to turn of repo rates on KASE upward

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, May 15, 08/ - In April 2008 at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,765 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,739.7 bn. or USD14,440.4 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 61.2% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in March 2008 - 61.6%).

Compared to March 2008 the volume of repo transactions increased by KZT406.1 bn. ($3,386.9 m.) or by 30.5%. Relative to April 2007 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT427.4 bn. ($3,326.2 m.) or 19.7 % (18.7 % in dollar terms).

Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in April on comparable operations totaled 100%, in March 2008 - 100%.

Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows:

0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 93.8% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,631.3 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 80.8% (KZT1,405.0 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 13.0% (KZT226.3 bn.);

1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 6.2% of the sector's turnover (KZT108.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.0% (KZT16.7 bn.), deals in CS - 5.2% (KZT13.0 bn.).

For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in March, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 93.9% (GS - 74.2%; CS - 19.7%); repo by nego method - 6.1% (GS - 1.0%; CS - 5.1%).

The exchange repo market demonstrated turn upward. In April participants felt necessity in short moneys, what provoked the growth of rate on concluded deals. IRBIS specialists connect this fact with budget payments by the results of quarter. Besides, the payment of annual income tax lied ahead.

Participants, who have free assets mostly preferred to deposit in short term notes of the National Bank, which volume of supply has increased. Besides, the yield on these notes shows growth tendency since year beginning, what looks logic on the background of growing inflation (in April the level of inflation in annual term made 19.1%). This situation demanded participation of the head bank of the country, which had to actively add liquidity on the market.

In May, IRBIS specialists don't expect significant growth of activity in this sector of exchange market because of toughening of demands of state agency of financial supervision to minimal amount o reserve capital of second tier banks with the aim to cover possible expenses from bank activity and increase financial stability of banks.

Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in April 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.2% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table).

Automatic repo with GS - 80.8% of the market

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR            Num- 
Instrument  -------------------------------------   Volume,   ber Market
(currency,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted       KZT    of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average        m. deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
KZT_001         1.50  0.00 19.00    1.00     5.17 573,104.3  1596  83.39
KZT_002         0.50  0.40  5.50    3.50     3.64   9,604.0    18   1.40
KZT_003         1.50  1.50 12.00    5.00     5.53   1,585.0     6   0.23
KZT_007         5.00  3.50 11.00    4.25     7.48  88,369.0   230  12.86
KZT_014         5.00  5.00 12.00    9.00    10.57   1,194.0     7   0.17
KZT_028        12.00  6.00 12.00    8.00     8.58  13,376.0    51   1.95
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
TOTAL                                             687,232.4 1,908    100
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Automatic repo with CS - 13.0% of the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
Instrument  -------------------------------------   Volume,   Num- Market
(security,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted        m. ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       KZT  deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ASBN_090        8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00   2,004.0      5   1.80
ASBNb1_002      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      15.0      1   0.01
ASBNb1_007      9.00  8.50  9.00    8.50     8.78      46.0      3   0.04
ASBNb3_001      5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50     128.0      1   0.12
ASBNb3_003      4.00  4.00  4.00    4.00     4.00     136.0      1   0.12
ASBNb3_007      7.25  7.25  8.00    8.00     7.62     250.0      2   0.22
ASBNb4_001      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     131.0      1   0.12
ASBNp1_090      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      10.0      1   0.01
ASFI_001       13.50 13.50 13.50   13.50    13.50     500.0      1   0.45
ASFI_007        8.00  8.00 11.50    8.00     9.36   3,374.1      9   3.04
ASFI_030       11.50 11.50 13.00   13.00    12.13   1,769.0      5   1.59
ASFI_090       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,625.0      1   1.46
ASFIb5_001      3.50  3.50  3.50    3.50     3.50     120.0      1   0.11
ASFIb5_003      4.20  4.00  7.50    6.50     5.41   1,184.0      5   1.07
ASFIb5_007      6.50  6.50  8.00    8.00     7.21     824.0      8   0.74
ASFIb5_014      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     161.0      1   0.14
ASFIb5_030     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00     124.0      1   0.11
ASFIb7_001      4.00  4.00  4.00    4.00     4.00     150.0      1   0.13
ASFIb7_003      4.00  4.00  4.00    4.00     4.00     290.0      1   0.26
ASFIp_001       2.00  2.00  2.00    2.00     2.00       3.0      1   0.00
ASFIp_007       9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     470.0      1   0.42
ASFIp_028      11.84 11.84 11.84   11.84    11.84   9,324.1     21   8.39
ATFBb3_007     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00      28.0      1   0.03
ATFBb4_001      6.70  5.50  7.50    5.50     6.25     542.0      3   0.49
ATFBb4_002      6.70  6.70  7.50    7.50     6.92     412.0      3   0.37
ATFBb4_014      7.50  7.50  8.50    8.50     7.54     360.0      4   0.32
ATFBb6_001      2.00  2.00  2.00    2.00     2.00     150.0      2   0.13
ATFBb6_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     460.0      3   0.41
BTAIb6_001      2.50  2.50  2.50    2.50     2.50     250.0      1   0.22
BTAIb6_007      7.25  7.00  7.25    7.00     7.22     430.0      7   0.39
BTAIb8_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     100.0      1   0.09
BTAS_001        5.00  3.00 12.00    9.00     7.76     770.2     10   0.69
BTAS_007        6.00  6.00 10.50    9.50     8.00   1,747.7     28   1.57
BTAS_030       11.00  9.00 15.00   15.00    14.06   4,541.3     13   4.09
BTAS_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   3,200.1      7   2.88
BTASb1_007      8.50  8.50  8.50    8.50     8.50     520.0      1   0.47
BTASb1_030      9.50  9.50  9.50    9.50     9.50     200.0      1   0.18
BTASb2_028      9.50  9.50  9.50    9.50     9.50      38.0      3   0.03
BTASb4_007      5.00  5.00  7.00    7.00     5.50      40.0      3   0.04
BTASb4_014      8.50  8.50  8.50    8.50     8.50      41.0      5   0.04
BTASb5_001      5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50     500.0      1   0.45
BTASb5_014      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     509.0      1   0.46
BTASb7_001      4.00  4.00 11.00    7.00     8.11     496.0      4   0.45
BTASb7_007      7.00  7.00  7.50    7.50     7.06     885.0      5   0.80
BTASb7_030     13.50 13.50 13.50   13.50    13.50     293.0      2   0.26
BTASb7_090     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00   1,413.0      3   1.27
BTLZb1_001      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     115.0      1   0.10
BTTRb1_001      9.00  3.50  9.00    5.00     6.73   3,605.0     15   3.24
BTTRb1_003     10.00  8.00 10.00    8.00     8.54     837.0      2   0.75
CCBN_001        7.00  3.50  8.00    7.50     7.19     303.0      8   0.27
CCBN_007        9.00  6.70  9.50    9.50     8.66     292.0      6   0.26
CCBN_014       10.00  9.00 10.50    9.50     9.81     709.0     10   0.64
CCBN_030       11.00 10.50 12.00   11.00    11.26     783.0     19   0.70
CCBN_090       12.00 10.00 14.00   14.00    12.26  10,683.0     10   9.61
CCBNb13007      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     187.0      1   0.17
CCBNb13014      7.50  7.50  9.50    9.50     8.52     364.0      2   0.33
CCBNb14007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00       9.0      1   0.01
CCBNb4_007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00      10.0      1   0.01
CCBNb7_001      7.00  5.00  7.00    5.00     6.00      20.0      2   0.02
CCBNb7_003      6.00  6.00 10.00    9.00     7.79      58.0      6   0.05
CCBNb9_001      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00      15.0      1   0.01
CCBNb9_003      6.00  6.00  6.00    6.00     6.00      15.0      1   0.01
CCBNb9_007     12.00  9.00 12.00    9.00    10.50      30.0      2   0.03
CCBNb9_014      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00      15.0      1   0.01
CSBNb4_001      5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50     100.0      1   0.09
CSBNb4_007      8.00  7.00  8.00    7.50     7.51     597.0      5   0.54
CSBNb5_007      7.65  7.00  7.65    7.00     7.33     369.0      2   0.33
CSBNb6_001      4.00  2.00  7.00    7.00     4.73     576.0      3   0.52
CSBNb6_007      8.00  7.00  8.00    8.00     7.64     472.0      3   0.42
DNBN_028       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00      60.0      1   0.05
DTJLb1_001      7.00  5.00  8.00    8.00     6.22     366.0      8   0.33
DTJLb1_007      9.00  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.61     140.0      3   0.13
EUBNb3_001      4.70  4.70  4.70    4.70     4.70     870.0      3   0.78
EUBNb3_007      7.00  7.00 10.30   10.30     7.49     802.0      4   0.72
EUBNb3_014      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50      91.0      1   0.08
EUBNb3_028     10.00  8.50 11.00   11.00    10.60     932.0      5   0.84
HSBK_007        6.00  6.00  6.00    6.00     6.00      10.0      1   0.01
HSBKb3_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00      45.0      1   0.04
HSBKb9_014      9.00  9.00 10.00   10.00     9.61     127.0      2   0.11
HSBKp1_001      4.00  4.00  8.50    8.50     7.91   1,140.0      2   1.03
HSBKp1_003      6.50  6.50  6.50    6.50     6.50     190.0      1   0.17
HSBKp1_007      6.50  6.50 10.30    8.00     8.05   3,042.0     27   2.74
HSBKp1_014      7.50  7.50  9.00    8.00     7.90     878.0      5   0.79
KASTb1_028     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50     859.0      1   0.77
KKAGb3_001      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     150.0      1   0.13
KKGB_001        7.00  6.00  7.00    6.00     6.09      66.0      2   0.06
KKGB_007        9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00      29.0      1   0.03
KKGB_028       11.50 10.50 14.00   10.50    13.62      56.0      3   0.05
KKGBb2_001      5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50     151.0      1   0.14
KKGBb2_003      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     100.0      1   0.09
KKGBb2_007      7.50  6.70  8.70    8.70     7.37     456.1      3   0.41
KKGBb2_014      8.00  7.50  9.50    9.50     8.12     849.1      3   0.76
KKGBb2_028      9.00  9.00 11.00   10.00    10.45     600.3      6   0.54
KKGBb5_007     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00      10.0      1   0.01
KZIKb10028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     170.0      1   0.15
KZIKb12028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     180.0      2   0.16
KZIKb2_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     120.0      1   0.11
KZIKb8_007      6.00  6.00  6.00    6.00     6.00     180.0      3   0.16
KZTCb1_007      5.00  5.00  5.00    5.00     5.00      15.0      1   0.01
KZTK_007        8.70  8.70  8.70    8.70     8.70      28.0      1   0.03
KZTK_014        7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50      27.0      2   0.02
NFBN_001        7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     100.0      1   0.09
NFBN_028        9.00  9.00 10.00   10.00     9.67   2,892.0     25   2.60
NRBNb2_003      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     188.0      1   0.17
NRBNb2_007      5.00  5.00 10.30   10.30     8.77     672.0      4   0.60
NRBNb2_014      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     280.0      1   0.25
NRBNb4_001      5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50     234.0      1   0.21
NRBNb4_007      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     464.0      2   0.42
NRBNb5_001      5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50     671.0      1   0.60
NRBNb5_007      7.50  7.50 10.00   10.00     8.33   2,033.0      3   1.83
ORDB_003        6.00  6.00  8.50    7.00     6.88     442.0      5   0.40
ORDB_007       13.00  8.50 13.00    8.50    11.08     262.0      3   0.24
ORDB_014       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     150.0      2   0.13
ORDB_028       14.50 14.50 15.00   14.50    14.68   1,118.0     12   1.01
ORDBb2_001      7.50  4.50 11.50    4.50     7.54   2,873.0     13   2.58
ORDBb2_007      7.50  7.50  7.50    7.50     7.50     152.0      1   0.14
ORDBb2_014      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     723.0      1   0.65
ORDBb2_028     11.25 11.25 11.25   11.25    11.25   1,000.0      1   0.90
ORNKb1_007      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      15.0      1   0.01
PRKRb2_001      5.25  4.50  6.50    5.00     5.63   2,649.0      5   2.38
PRKRb2_003      7.00  7.00  8.00    8.00     7.50   1,207.0      2   1.09
PRKRb2_007      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00   1,000.0      1   0.90
PRKRb2_028     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     785.0      2   0.71
RDGZ_001        5.00  5.00 12.00    7.00     7.32   3,757.1     18   3.38
RDGZ_007        6.50  5.00 12.00    7.50     8.44   2,002.1     18   1.80
RDGZ_014        7.50  7.50  9.00    8.00     7.74     341.1     10   0.31
RDGZ_028       10.00 10.00 11.00   11.00    10.86     255.0      4   0.23
RGBRb5_001      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00      40.0      1   0.04
RGBRb5_028     10.00 10.00 11.00   11.00    10.26      90.0      2   0.08
ROSA_007        7.00  7.00 15.00   15.00     7.25     128.0      2   0.12
ROSA_028       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     180.0      2   0.16
ROSA_090       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     122.0      1   0.11
TEBN_007        6.50  6.50  9.50    8.50     9.13   1,020.0     13   0.92
TEBN_014        9.00  9.00 10.50    9.00     9.27     951.0     10   0.86
TEBN_030       10.25 10.25 10.25   10.25    10.25     272.0      2   0.24
TEBNp_001       6.00  6.00  6.00    6.00     6.00      15.0      1   0.01
TEBNp_003       7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00      20.0      2   0.02
TEBNp_030      11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00      15.0      1   0.01
TSBN_001       11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00      23.0      1   0.02
TSBN_003        5.00  5.00  5.00    5.00     5.00      29.0      1   0.03
TSBN_014        9.00  9.00 11.00   10.50     9.40     411.0     15   0.37
TSSMb1_001      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     305.0      1   0.27
TSSMb1_007      9.50  9.50  9.50    9.50     9.50     113.0      1   0.10
UTMK_007       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   6,000.2     12   5.40
UTMK_030       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,500.1      3   1.35
VITAb5_014     14.50 14.50 14.50   14.50    14.50     160.0      1   0.14
VITAb5_030     13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00      13.0      1   0.01
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
TOTAL                                             111,141.2    596    100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.0% of the market

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Repo rate, % APR
Term of  -----------------------------------------  Volume,    Num-  Market
repo,    on first  mini-  maxi-  on last  weighted       m.  ber of  share,
days         deal    mum    mum     deal   average      KZT   deals       %
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
1            3.50   2.00   9.50     2.00      7.08  2,159.9      16   26.58
2            8.00   4.00   8.00     4.00      5.24    179.4       6    2.21
3            8.00   4.50   8.00     4.50      7.28     97.0       2    1.19
4            8.00   3.00  11.50    11.50      5.90    295.2       4    3.63
5            5.00   4.30   6.00     4.30      5.26    140.9       3    1.73
7            7.00   4.50   9.00     6.50      6.69  1,610.5      18   19.81
8            7.00   3.00   8.56     3.00      6.14    265.1       4    3.26
10           6.50   5.45   6.50     5.45      6.06    240.8       4    2.96
11           9.00   9.00   9.00     9.00      9.00    171.3       3    2.11
12           5.88   5.88   9.01     8.01      7.86  1,053.1      12   12.96
13           6.23   6.02   6.23     6.02      6.17    147.2       2    1.81
14           5.61   5.61  10.00     6.00      8.15    632.1      10    7.78
15           6.64   6.64   6.64     6.64      6.64     50.0       1    0.62
16           8.32   8.32   8.32     8.32      8.32     60.0       1    0.74
18           7.00   7.00   7.00     7.00      7.00     40.0       1    0.49
24          11.00  11.00  11.00    11.00     11.00    400.0       4    4.92
25           7.82   7.82   7.82     7.82      7.82     30.9       1    0.38
27           9.01   9.01   9.01     9.01      9.01    103.5       1    1.27
29          11.00  11.00  11.00    11.00     11.00     49.5       1    0.61
30          11.00  11.00  11.00    11.00     11.00     28.0       1    0.34
32           8.50   8.50   8.50     8.50      8.50     50.1       1    0.62
37           9.23   9.23   9.23     9.23      9.23     20.0       1    0.25
44          10.23  10.23  10.23    10.23     10.23     40.0       1    0.49
54           8.00   8.00   8.00     8.00      8.00     77.0       1    0.95
60           8.50   8.50   8.50     8.50      8.50    110.9       2    1.36
61           8.50   8.50   8.50     8.50      8.50     75.4       2    0.93
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
TOTAL                                               8,127.6     103     100
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[2008-05-15]