ANALYSIS: March 2008, KASE shares market turnover growth insignificant
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, April 15, 2008/ - In March 2008 1,242 deals in shares were registered in all sectors, including deals, made on the special trading floor of the Regional Financial Center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) for the total of KZT32.3 bn. or $267.8 m. at the current exchange rate on the dates, on which deals were made.
The specified amount makes 73.8 % of the monthly turnover of the corporate securities market on KASE (in February - 56.5%) and 1.5% of the entire monthly exchange turnover (1.4%).
Statistic characteristic of KASE shares market in March and February 2008
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Month:
---------------------- Trend
March, February, March 2008
Indicator 2008 2008 to February 2008
------------------------------------- --------- ----------- ----------------
Trades volume, th. USD 267,831.6 246,955.0 +8.5,%
Trades volume, m KZT 32,283.5 29,728.9 +8.6,%
Including on offerings, th. USD 20,819.1 - Х
including on offerings, m. KZT 20.8 - Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD 165,229.1 1,245.9 +13,162.1,%
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 19,903.9 149.9 +13,175.7,%
Number of deals 1,242 2,104 -41.0,%
Number of instruments, 36 40 -10.0,%
involved in deals
Average day number of deals 65 100 -34.6,%
Average day volume of deals, th. USD 12,743.9 11,707.1 +8.9,%
Stake of nego deals (number), % 3.1 1.9 +1.2,пп
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 6.0 5.2 +0.8,пп
Part of pension assets, % on gross 9.5 9.1 +0.4,пп
Part of physical entities, % on gross 16.8 14.9 +1.9,пп
Part of non-residents entities, % on 24.8 16.7 +8.1,пп
gross
Number of exchange's members, 47 53 -11.3,%
who made deals
Market concentration, %* 58.4 46.7 +11.7,пп
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* it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered
by the most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of
share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE)
KASE shares market insignificant turnover growth in March was due to some factors. On the one hand, 61.7% of market turnover fall to STF RFCA trades. However, increasing influence of March trades on STF RFCA doesn't afford to determine the features of market attraction growth of this sector. Let us remind that the main volume of trades on STF RFCA was made March 21, by the results of special trades with 570,845 common shares KZ1C34560017 of Khabar Agency JSC for the total amount of $100.3 m. Besides, on March 31, 250.000 common shares KZ1C45320013 of Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC were offered on STF RFCA.
On the other hand, the peak of activity on STF RFCA was evened out by the decreasing turnover in the segment of secondary market of KASE to 32.3% (from the total volume of trades) from 94.3% in February. In the mentioned tendency, decreasing in prices of Kazakhstan banks played it's role (see Results of trades in shares on KASE on March 2008), also listed on LSE. By the results of trades on LSE, GDR prices of common shares of Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC fell by 9.6% (+4.4% in February), Kazkommertsbank JSC - by 8.4% (+17.5%), Alliance Bank JSC - by 18.5% (+22.7%).
In this situation the high level of correlation of KASE share market with position on external markets was demonstrated by KASE index (see the Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in March 2008)
Beginning the second week of March, 2008 international trade floors were in fear of recession in USA and worsening of situation on the world exchange markets. Federal Reserve System repeated rate decrease, admitting bankruptcy of one of the hugest investment banks of USA Bear Stearns, worsening of statistical results of month and permanent US dollar decreasing made investors to act more careful while manipulating on the exchange market, which caused new flow-out of assets.
Company-representatives shares of rough sector of Kazakhstan economic increased in March both on KASE and on LSE: GDR prices of common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC increased by 3.9% (- 8.5% in February), KAZAKHMYS PLС - by 3.3% (+27.2% in February). It was supported by rise in price of main rough products that caused worsening of the situation on exchange market. However the rise in price on Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC and KAZAKHMYS PLС shares was not so significant. Quotations were influenced by the events that happened to the mentioned companies. In March KAZAKHMYS PLС equity quotations dynamics was influenced by the messages on financial results of the company for 2007, and the statements of Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation and Kazakhstan Government (detailed information see ANALYSIS: Liquidity rating of KASE listing shares on secondary market on March and 1Q of 2008). Insignificant growth in shares of Exploration Production KazMunaiGas JSC, notwithstanding the rise in price on oil on world market, was based on continuing anxiety of market for introducing tax on oil export by Kazakhstan Government and their replication on company's yields. On April 8, 2008 this very question was decided at the Government meeting - the rate of custom tax relative to crude oil makes $109.91 per ton, at the same time the sum of tax will be corrected due to the world oil prices. KazMunaiGas JSC is also included in the list of companies, which are under the tax. Exploration Production KazMunaiGas JSC made an announcement about reviewing of its investment program. Thus, share quotation of the company is likely to fall (on foreign and home market) in short term prospect - at least, before the company will announce the data forecast for extraction, export of oil and investment policy with taking this tax increasing into account.
On the whole, by results of March, average weighted day prices increased shares denomination - 39%, decreased 50% of denominations, unchanged - 6%, there was nothing to compare with the prices of 6% of the shares. Maximum trends by the results of month showed: UTMKp shares increased by 204.6% and DNBN shares decreased by 13.9%.
Below are the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the analyzed month in details.
Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in March 2008 (end of month, change over the month)
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Shares: Issuers:
Category of ------------- Instruments -------------
admission number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 45 0 45 0
B 46 0 46 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 91 0 91 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N 6 +1 6 +1
A+B+N 97 +1 97 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 24 +1 24 +1
A+B+C+N 97 +1 121 +2
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Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE;
"А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion.
Changes of KASE index for different periods at the moment of trades' closing on March 31, 2008 (basis actual/365)
----------------------------------------------
Change:
------------
Period % % APR
-------------------------------- ----- -----
For previous 30 days -5.0 -60.7
For the last 365 days (year) -2.7 -10.4
For year 2006 -3.0 -3.0
Since the beginning of year 2005 +12.2 +12.2
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Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in March of year 2008
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Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of
pitalization, deals, deals, deals
Data m. USD KASE Index th. USD m. KZT
--------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
February 29, 08 55,844.2 2,701.84 31,404.2 3,795.2 53
March 3, 08 55,407.8 2,671.02 1,701.6 205.3 62
March 4, 08 55,393.7 2,665.31 4,175.0 504.2 71
March 5, 08 56,364.0 2,695.18 3,069.9 370.9 57
March 6, 08 57,281.6 2,713.50 2,800.6 337.9 67
March 7, 08 57,272.4 2,678.64 4,188.7 505.4 80
March 11, 08 55,972.3 2,700.30 26,919.6 3,247.8 57
March 12, 08 56,900.0 2,724.32 8,715.8 1,052.3 80
March 13, 08 58,124.2 2,724.09 11,657.5 1,405.9 84
March 14, 08 58,239.8 2,743.60 3,439.6 414.4 67
March 17, 08 57,285.3 2,691.62 1,781.5 215.0 90
March 18, 08 56,616.7 2,671.32 5,718.6 690.4 63
March 19, 08 56,067.1 2,668.17 2,168.5 261.8 68
March 20, 08 54,925.8 2,606.66 46,930.8 5,652.8 89
March 21, 08 54,623.0 2,614.40 103,321.5 12,442.0 49
March 25, 08 55,888.0 2,643.61 8,233.9 993.4 64
March 26, 08 55,622.1 2,605.02 1,456.1 175.9 59
March 27, 08 55,130.1 2,593.83 1,150.8 138.9 56
March 28, 08 55,166.2 2,587.42 885.9 106.9 19
March 31, 08 55,189.5 2,567.10 29,306.4 3,537.0 59
--------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
Trend -654.7 -134.74 , , ,
% -1.2 -5.0 , , ,
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Results of trades in shares on KASE in March 2008 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals)
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Price, tenge per share:
------------------------------------------------------
on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num-
--------------- ------------------ of deals, ber
Shares trend th. de-
code min. max. price % min. max. USD als
------- --------- --------- --------- ----- -------- --------- --------- -------
aHABR 21,161.5 21,161.5 21,161.5 21,161.5 21,161.5 100,315.6 1
ASAV 175,450.0 175,450.0 175,450.0 +14.7 34,351.0 175,450.0 14.5 1
ASBN 23,000.0 26,180.0 23,000.0 -12.6 14,000.0 67,970.0 103.2 7
ASBNp1 11,500.0 11,500.0 11,500.0 +4.6 10,610.0 25,000.0 909.0 3
ASFI 15,000.0 22,728.0 22,728.0 8,100.0 22,728.0 203.2 15
ASFIp 10,000.0 10,000.0 10,000.0 -5.6 4,309.6 14,500.0 24,865.3 7
ATFB 8,181.8 8,690.0 8,690.0 8,100.0 14,000.0 55.6 7
aUTMK 20,105.0 27,000.0 20,105.0 20,105.0 27,000.0 43,885.2 9
BTAS 72,000.0 80,000.0 72,500.0 -8.8 850.0 157,275.0 11,922.2 154
CCBN 1,510.0 1,770.0 1,510.0 -7.1 1,000.0 2,050.0 5,623.8 165
CSBN 5,550.0 5,822.0 5,550.0 -4.3 5,000.0 8,000.0 108.9 7
DNBN 3,600.0 3,600.0 3,600.0 0 1,449.0 6,727.5 3,169.9 6
GB_KZMS 3,500.0 4,105.0 3,770.0 +1.3 2,640.0 4,105.0 1,613.5 80
HSBK 490.0 540.0 496.0 -5.5 402.0 740.0 5,195.3 65
HSBKp 285.0 285.0 285.0 0 285.0 333.5 132.8 2
HSBKp1 293.0 322.0 321.0 +0.9 290.0 353.0 969.0 26
KIBN 340.0 365.0 346.5 -7.4 110.0 1,150.0 171.6 11
KKGB 901.0 1,059.0 935.0 -11.4 600.0 1,430.0 2,071.4 82
KKGBp 375.0 440.0 390.0 0 255.0 499.0 4,563.7 72
KZTCp 2,000.0 2,100.0 2,000.0 -7.0 1,044.0 8,750.0 58.1 3
KZTK 31,500.0 33,750.0 31,520.0 -2.4 31,500.0 52,000.0 2,152.3 65
KZTKp 17,000.0 18,000.0 17,699.0 +1.1 14,500.0 27,100.0 1,279.3 23
MMGZp 10,000.0 15,500.0 13,500.0 +8.0 7,500.0 16,400.0 2,665.7 36
NFBN 4,500.0 5,200.0 4,920.0 +9.3 2,530.0 7,622.5 929.3 9
NRBN 20,050.0 20,050.0 20,050.0 -8.9 17,500.0 54,050.0 43.5 3
RDGZ 17,520.0 19,630.0 18,100.0 +3.4 13,000.0 24,595.0 12,312.6 264
RMXR 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.0 5.0 1,014.7 5
TEBN 7,000.0 7,001.0 7,000.0 0 4,450.5 9,000.0 1,218.8 19
TEBNp 2,550.0 2,750.0 2,700.0 +2.8 1,274.0 3,300.0 2,892.5 21
TSBN 2,100.0 2,343.0 2,100.0 -4.6 1,680.0 4,500.0 202.0 19
UTMK 27,000.0 27,000.0 27,000.0 0 27,000.0 28,750.0 25.3 2
UTMKp 1,500.0 3,100.0 3,100.0 1,500.0 15,000.0 119.1 6
ZERD 3.5 3.5 3.5 +0.3 3.5 4.5 29.1 1
------- --------- --------- --------- ----- -------- --------- --------- -------
33 230,836.1 1,196.0
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Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (January 1-31, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated.
Top-10 of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in March 2008, including STF RFCA
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Base of liquidity
indicator calculation (Kl):
------------------------------------
Position Position Share number Liqui Volume Number Number
in in dity of deals number of KASE of
March 2008 February indica KZT, of deals mem bers result
2007 tor(Kl) mln days
---------- -------- ------------ ------- -------- -------- -------- ------
1 3 RDGZ 2.61 1,485.9 264 58 18
2 2 BTAS 1.96 1,438.7 154 43 19
3 4 CCBN 1.82 678.4 165 38 18
4 1 KKGB 1.38 250.0 82 36 16
5 12 GB_KZMS 1.25 194.8 80 28 17
6 6 HSBK 1.24 626.6 65 30 16
7 8 KKGBp 1.21 550.7 72 27 16
8 5 KZTK 1.05 259.8 65 21 16
9 10 HSBKp1 0.80 117.0 26 11 19
10 14 MMGZp 0.65 321.5 36 11 11
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Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades. Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in corresponding chapter of the document, published at see more in Russian language and at see more in English language.
10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates)
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As of March 31, 08: as of February 29, 08: Change:
--------------------- ---------------------- ---------------
Company's code or po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi-
name
on KASE (the same si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake,
code is used for ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, %
common share) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points
----------------- --- -------- ------ ---- -------- ------ ------- ------
KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 14,211.4 25.75 1 13,816.2 24.74 +395.3 +1.01
EP Kazmunaygas 2 10,622.2 19.25 2 10,168.5 18.21 +453.6 +1.04
Bank TuranAlem 3 5,027.4 9.11 3 5,506.2 9.86 -478.8 -0.75
Kazkommertsbank 4 4,860.7 8.81 4 5,454.9 9.77 -594.1 -0.96
Halyk bank 5 4,315.8 7.82 5 4,544.4 8.14 -228.6 -0.32
Kazakhtelecom 6 2,911.8 5.28 6 2,983.3 5.34 -71.5 -0.07
Alliance Bank 7 2,028.7 3.68 8 2,032.3 3.64 -3.7 +0.04
ATFBank 8 1,874.7 3.40 7 2,133.8 3.82 -259.0 -0.42
Bank CenterCredit 9 1,704.6 3.09 9 1,752.3 3.14 -47.7 -0.05
Temirbank 10 1,217.7 2.21 10 1,213.1 2.17 +4.6 +0.03
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Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of February 29, 2008 was $55,844.2 m. There were 91 shares of 68 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of codes of issuers with the names of companies is published at see more
[2008-04-15]