ANALYSIS: In March 2008 quotes on KASE repo market still slide due to excess liquidity

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, April 15, 2008/ - In March 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 4,668 deals were registered for the total of KZT1,333.6 bn. or USD11,053.4 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 61.6% of the KASE total March turnover (in February 2008 - 62.6 %). Compared to February 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT14.6 bn. ($93.7 m.) or by 1.1 %. Relative to March 2007, the volume of transactions decreased by KZT7365.6 bn. ($2,634.0 m.) or by 21.5% (by 19.2% expressed in dollar). The exchange turnover stake in the total volume of repo deals on the Kazakhstan market in March on comparable operations totaled 100%. In February 2008 the stake was 100% KASE repo market turnover structure in the analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 93.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,252.9 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 74.2% (KZT990.0 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 19.7% (KZT262.9 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 6.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT80.7 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.0% (KZT12.9 bn.), deals in CS - 5.1% (KZT67.8 bn.). For comparison, the structure of the stock exchange repo market in February 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 92.5% (GS -73.1%; CS - 19.4%); repo by nego method - 7.5% (GS - 1.1%; CS - 6.4%). In March there wasn't much activity on repo market. Despite the volume of concluded deals increased compared to the previous month, on the whole it is not too attractive. Along with this, the increased volume of supply was fixed on US dollar Kazakhstan market. This shows that banks continue to develop currency reserves satisfying the needs in tenge. This situation, connected with liquidity problems restrains investors from activity on securities and bond markets. Accumulated tenge liquidity provoked the continuation of repo stakes sliding tendency, which to some extent affected the volume of deals increase. The other part of free money was taken by GS market, where the National Bank and Ministry of Finance short term securities purchase increased; at times the purchase volume was surpassing that of supply by more than 3 times. In April short-term GS volume increase is expected due to the state budget deficit. At the same time the negative news continue to come from the finance market and oil sector. Therefore, in April, IRBIS specialists expect repo rates to remain on the current level with possible sliding down. Below are the tables which characterize primary segments of KASE repo market in March 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.1% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 74.2% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Number Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ KZT_001 5.00 0.01 20.00 5.00 2.17 412,901.2 821 81.18 KZT_002 0.50 0.50 3.00 3.00 2.60 18,025.0 22 3.54 KZT_003 1.50 0.01 3.00 1.00 1.02 7,480.0 12 1.47 KZT_007 3.50 3.00 11.00 5.50 6.22 32,541.0 97 6.40 KZT_014 7.00 4.75 7.00 6.00 5.30 12,790.0 19 2.51 KZT_028 7.50 6.30 12.00 7.50 6.99 24,890.0 46 4.89 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 508,627.2 1,017 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 19.7% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBNb3_001 3.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 3.54 477.0 6 0.37 ASBNb3_007 6.50 3.50 7.75 7.75 6.83 412.0 5 0.32 ASBNb4_001 , , , , 4.00 130.0 1 0.10 ASBNb4_007 , , , , 3.75 129.0 1 0.10 ASBNb4_014 , , , , 7.75 130.0 1 0.10 ASBNp1_007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 20.0 2 0.02 ASFI_030 , , , , 14.00 1,607.0 1 1.24 ASFIb5_001 3.00 2.50 4.00 4.00 3.18 1,540.0 4 1.19 ASFIb5_007 , , , , 4.50 200.0 1 0.15 ASFIb5_014 7.75 7.00 7.75 7.65 7.54 778.0 3 0.60 ASFIb7_001 3.00 2.50 6.10 6.10 4.60 4,479.0 7 3.47 ASFIb7_003 , , , , 3.00 201.0 1 0.16 ASFIb7_007 6.50 4.50 6.50 6.00 5.63 698.0 5 0.54 ASFIb7_014 7.75 7.00 7.75 7.75 7.73 982.0 3 0.76 ASFIb9_028 , , , , 9.00 159.0 1 0.12 ASFIp_001 11.84 8.50 11.84 8.50 8.52 1,420.0 4 1.10 ASFIp_007 9.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.68 1,470.0 3 1.14 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 9,185.1 20 7.11 ATFBb3_003 , , , , 5.50 260.0 1 0.20 ATFBb4_001 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.50 4.20 411.0 2 0.32 ATFBb4_002 6.50 3.00 6.50 4.00 5.22 1,405.0 8 1.09 ATFBb4_014 7.00 7.00 7.75 7.65 7.41 990.0 5 0.77 ATFBb5_007 , , , , 9.50 166.0 1 0.13 ATFBb5_028 , , , , 10.00 17.0 1 0.01 ATFBb6_001 2.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 3.15 352.0 4 0.27 ATFBb6_007 3.00 2.00 5.50 2.00 3.10 117.0 7 0.09 ATFBb6_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 460.0 3 0.36 BTAIb5_014 6.50 6.50 7.50 7.50 7.24 135.0 2 0.10 BTAIb6_001 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50 2.94 327.0 2 0.25 BTAIb6_014 5.50 5.50 7.75 7.75 7.45 468.0 3 0.36 BTAIb7_007 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 56.0 5 0.04 BTAS_001 3.00 3.00 4.00 3.00 3.40 951.2 8 0.74 BTAS_007 11.00 4.00 11.00 5.00 8.08 4,937.7 26 3.82 BTAS_030 11.50 9.00 15.00 12.00 13.15 5,182.4 23 4.01 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,700.3 10 3.64 BTASb1_007 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.75 2,858.0 4 2.21 BTASb2_028 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.59 206.0 3 0.16 BTASb4_001 5.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 4.17 92.0 3 0.07 BTASb4_007 3.75 3.50 6.00 6.00 4.38 76.0 3 0.06 BTASb4_014 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 430.0 4 0.33 BTASb5_001 3.00 506.0 1 0.39 BTASb5_007 6.50 505.0 1 0.39 BTASb5_014 7.75 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.62 1,014.0 2 0.79 BTASb5_028 6.00 334.0 1 0.26 BTASb7_001 5.50 3.00 5.50 3.00 3.91 615.0 5 0.48 BTASb7_007 6.50 3.00 7.50 7.50 5.63 1,416.0 12 1.10 BTASb7_090 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,663.0 4 1.29 BTTRb1_001 4.50 3.50 4.50 3.50 4.26 1,239.0 4 0.96 BTTRb1_007 9.00 340.0 1 0.26 CCBN_001 3.50 2.50 6.20 4.00 3.52 377.0 10 0.29 CCBN_007 3.75 3.75 9.00 7.00 6.10 169.0 8 0.13 CCBN_014 9.50 7.75 10.00 10.00 9.60 826.0 9 0.64 CCBN_030 10.00 10.00 14.00 14.00 12.78 2,502.0 12 1.94 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 3,698.0 2 2.86 CCBNb12007 9.50 5.50 9.50 5.50 7.54 1,105.0 4 0.86 CCBNb13003 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.50 4.39 415.0 4 0.32 CCBNb13007 5.00 186.0 1 0.14 CCBNb13014 7.50 186.0 1 0.14 CCBNb7_001 4.00 10.0 1 0.01 CCBNb9_001 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.67 21.0 2 0.02 CCBNb9_007 7.50 8.0 1 0.01 CSBNb4_007 8.00 4.50 8.00 7.65 7.38 989.1 8 0.77 CSBNb5_007 4.50 4.50 7.65 7.65 6.79 745.0 4 0.58 CSBNb6_007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 673.1 4 0.52 DTJLb1_001 3.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 5.58 199.0 4 0.15 DTJLb1_007 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.63 275.0 5 0.21 EUBNb3_001 3.50 3.00 6.50 3.00 5.42 1,459.0 5 1.13 EUBNb3_007 6.50 4.50 7.25 7.25 5.50 1,422.0 8 1.10 EUBNb3_014 9.50 7.00 9.50 7.65 8.17 920.0 5 0.71 EUBNb3_028 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.43 350.0 3 0.27 GLOTb2_028 11.50 150.0 1 0.12 HSBKb10007 9.50 355.0 1 0.27 HSBKb3_014 7.00 248.0 1 0.19 HSBKb3_028 12.00 70.0 1 0.05 HSBKb7_014 7.00 314.0 1 0.24 HSBKp1_001 3.00 3.00 6.50 6.50 5.61 1,776.0 7 1.38 HSBKp1_003 3.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 3.19 323.0 2 0.25 HSBKp1_007 5.50 5.00 8.00 5.00 6.44 2,570.0 10 1.99 HSBKp1_014 6.50 6.50 7.65 7.65 7.06 1,202.0 4 0.93 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 1,784.0 2 1.38 KKGB_007 5.50 5.50 9.00 9.00 8.40 35.0 2 0.03 KKGB_028 14.00 48.0 1 0.04 KKGBb2_001 6.50 117.0 1 0.09 KKGBb2_003 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.50 4.16 256.1 2 0.20 KKGBb2_007 4.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.54 254.0 2 0.20 KKGBb2_014 9.50 7.50 9.50 8.50 8.70 1,255.2 4 0.97 KKGBb2_028 10.00 30.0 1 0.02 KZIKb10028 12.00 300.0 1 0.23 KZIKb12028 6.00 6.00 12.00 12.00 8.46 560.0 2 0.43 KZIKb2_028 12.00 90.0 1 0.07 KZIKb8_007 9.50 6.00 9.50 6.50 6.65 653.0 4 0.51 KZTCb1_001 5.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 4.54 184.0 6 0.14 KZTCb1_007 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 76.0 2 0.06 KZTK_001 2.50 2.00 2.50 2.00 2.30 47.0 2 0.04 KZTK_007 3.50 3.50 6.00 6.00 5.68 31.0 2 0.02 NFBN_028 9.00 9.00 14.00 9.00 10.75 1,668.0 14 1.29 NRBNb2_001 3.00 2.50 4.00 4.00 3.03 1,560.0 4 1.21 NRBNb2_014 7.75 429.0 1 0.33 NRBNb4_001 4.00 3.00 4.00 3.00 3.55 516.0 3 0.40 NRBNb4_007 3.75 3.75 7.75 7.50 6.84 835.0 6 0.65 NRBNb5_001 3.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 2.83 1,995.0 3 1.54 NRBNb5_007 8.50 7.50 8.50 7.50 7.87 2,654.0 4 2.06 ORDB_003 8.00 54.0 1 0.04 ORDB_014 14.00 13.00 14.00 13.00 13.78 690.0 6 0.53 ORDB_028 14.00 13.00 15.00 14.50 14.70 786.0 10 0.61 ORDB_090 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 240.0 4 0.19 ORNKb1_028 12.00 10.0 1 0.01 PRKRb2_001 2.00 2.00 8.00 3.50 3.95 7,239.0 9 5.61 PRKRb2_003 5.00 1,000.0 1 0.77 PRKRb2_007 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 56.0 5 0.04 PRKRb2_014 9.50 290.0 1 0.22 PRKRb2_028 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.19 785.0 2 0.61 RDGZ_001 4.00 2.50 8.50 8.00 5.65 5,760.1 14 4.46 RDGZ_007 6.50 3.75 9.00 8.00 8.31 6,936.2 24 5.37 RDGZ_014 7.00 6.50 9.50 9.50 8.70 3,560.1 19 2.76 RGBRb4_028 10.00 53.0 1 0.04 ROSA_001 5.00 200.0 1 0.15 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 180.0 2 0.14 ROSA_090 13.00 120.0 1 0.09 TEBN_001 5.00 3.00 5.00 3.00 3.98 1,108.0 7 0.86 TEBN_007 4.00 4.00 8.50 5.00 7.29 921.0 10 0.71 TEBN_014 7.75 7.75 8.50 8.00 8.37 470.0 6 0.36 TEBN_030 9.00 270.0 1 0.21 TSBNb3_007 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 56.0 5 0.04 UTMK_007 14.00 9.00 14.00 14.00 13.98 3,012.1 7 2.33 VITAb5_030 13.00 13.00 14.00 14.00 13.91 175.0 2 0.14 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 129,139.2 567 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.0% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 1.00 1.00 10.00 2.00 8.01 2,654.5 8 34.77 2 1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 1.58 315.0 3 4.13 3 7.48 0.00 8.00 2.00 4.20 1,068.0 8 13.99 4 4.00 4.00 5.50 5.50 4.46 200.0 3 2.62 7 7.00 5.71 7.00 6.00 6.67 1,019.9 11 13.36 8 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 567.1 5 7.43 9 8.00 7.34 8.00 7.34 7.79 160.0 2 2.10 11 5.55 86.1 1 1.13 12 5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34 632.2 7 8.28 13 7.54 103.6 1 1.36 14 8.00 7.50 8.50 8.50 8.02 631.2 7 8.27 17 11.00 46.9 1 0.61 20 11.00 9.1 1 0.12 39 7.49 42.0 1 0.55 62 8.50 46.7 1 0.61 79 8.65 52.4 1 0.69 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 7,634.8 61 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-04-15]