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18.03.2008 21:18 #KASE news

ANALYSIS: In February 2008 the repo market on KASE was marked by a quotes' decrease because of an absence of a demand

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, March 18, 2008/ - In February 2008 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 5,282 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,319.0 bn. or USD10,959.8 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 62.6% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in January 2008 - 73.3 %).

Compared to January 2008 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT493.5 bn. ($4,096.8 m.) or by 27.2 %. Relative to February 2007, the volume of transactions decreased by KZT718.5 bn. ($5,383.8 m.) or by 0.6% (by 0.7% in dollar terms).

Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals on Kazakhstan market in February on comparable operations totaled 100.0%, in January 2008 the given indicator made 100%.

Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in the analyzed month was as follows:

  • the stake of automatic repo transactions was 92.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,220.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 73.1% (KZT964.0 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 19.4% (KZT256.5 bn.);
  • the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 7.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT98.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.1% (KZT14.5 bn.), deals in CS - 6.4% (KZT84.0 bn.).

For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in January 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 92.9% (GS -76.7%; CS - 16.2%); repo by nego method - 7.1% (GS - 0.7%; CS - 6.4%).

As it was expected by IRBIS specialists, in March there was an increased demand on bonds of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. An actual volume of the offerings exceeded a plan by 30-40%. This fact averted an insignificant part of means from repo sector of KASE, which in some degree explains almost 30% decrease of the volume of deals in this sector.

Specialists of IRBIS are inclined to entitle that a preparation of the second tier banks to the forthcoming redemption of syndicated loans could be another reason of the decreased volume of repo. However, these events do not need an attraction of additional means to the internal and external markets, which explains considerably low amplitude of quotes' fluctuations on repo market.

This situation continued until the middle of the month. Nevertheless, as it typically used to be, in the second half of the month with the beginning of the tax payments, this segment of stock market was characterized by the rapid growth of quotes. So, TONIA indicator increased almost 6 times in comparison to the beginning of the analyzed month, up to 6.50% APR, with the further downward correction, and by the end of the month it almost returned to its initial position.

Overall, in February average weighted repo quotes showed a decrease in comparison to January in allowable limits, which explains the absence of the correcting activities of the overhead bank of the country. IRBIS specialists partly connect this decrease with that fact that banks preferred currency market rather than repo market, satisfying its needs in Kazakh tenge by the sale of US dollars.

Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in February 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (6.4% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table).

Automatic repo with GS - 73.1% of the market

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
                                                             Num-  
Instrument  -------------------------------------   Volume,  ber  Market
(currency,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted       KZT    of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average        m. deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
KZT_001         2.50  0.10  8.00    1.00     2.33 374,923.4  1032  78.82
KZT_002         1.90  0.20  8.00    4.00     3.37  21,791.0    32   4.58
KZT_003         4.50  0.10  6.00    3.00     1.96  16,581.0    29   3.49
KZT_007         5.00  3.00  8.50    4.70     5.56  38,189.0    83   8.03
KZT_014         6.50  5.00 12.00    5.50     6.43   6,092.0    18   1.28
KZT_028         9.50  6.00  9.50    7.50     8.43  18,120.0    47   3.81
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
TOTAL                                             475,696.5 1,241    100
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Automatic repo with CS - 19.4% of the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
 Instrument -------------------------------------   Volume,   Num- Market
(security,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted        m. ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       KZT  deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ASBNb3_001                                   3.50     149.0      1   0.12
ASBNb3_007      9.50  6.00  9.50    7.00     7.77     339.0      4   0.26
ASBNb4_001                                   3.50     129.0      1   0.10
ASBNb4_007                                   9.50     115.0      1   0.09
ASBNb4_014                                   8.50     115.0      1   0.09
ASFI_030                                    14.00   1.586.0      1   1.22
ASFIb5_001      6.50  4.00  6.50    4.00     4.94     645.0      4   0.50
ASFIb5_003                                   4.00     331.0      1   0.26
ASFIb5_007      7.50  7.00  7.50    7.00     7.01     889.0      3   0.69
ASFIb5_014      9.50  8.50  9.50    8.50     8.63     285.0      2   0.22
ASFIb5_030                                   8.50      70.0      1   0.05
ASFIb7_001      6.50  2.00  6.50    2.00     5.12     593.0      3   0.46
ASFIb7_003                                   6.00     200.0      1   0.15
ASFIb7_007      9.20  6.50 11.00    7.00     8.09   1.954.0      9   1.51
ASFIb7_014     11.00  8.50 11.00   10.00     9.99     740.0      4   0.57
ASFIb9_014                                   9.50     157.0      1   0.12
ASFIp_001                                    5.00     150.0      1   0.12
ASFIp_007      10.00  7.00 10.00    9.00     9.48   1.675.0      5   1.29
ASFIp_014      10.50 10.00 10.50   10.50    10.30   2.514.0      5   1.94
ASFIp_028      11.84 11.84 11.84   11.84    11.84   7.353.0     10   5.68
ATFBb4_002                                   6.50     117.0      1   0.09
ATFBb4_014     10.20  7.50 10.20    8.00     8.25   1.109.0      7   0.86
ATFBb5_007      8.25  8.25  9.50    9.50     8.66   1.486.0      4   1.15
ATFBb5_028     11.00 10.00 11.00   10.00    10.45     921.0      2   0.71
ATFBb6_007      8.00  2.00  8.00    2.00     7.03     755.0      4   0.58
ATFBb6_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     460.0      2   0.36
BTAIb4_001                                   5.50      80.0      1   0.06
BTAIb6_001                                   3.50     264.0      1   0.20
BTAIb6_007      9.00  6.50  9.50    7.00     7.98     470.0      4   0.36
BTAIb6_014      9.50  7.50  9.50    8.00     8.01     269.0      3   0.21
BTAS_001        5.00  3.00  9.00    5.00     4.49   1.025.4     14   0.79
BTAS_007        6.50  6.50 11.00    9.00     9.98  13.307.9     35  10.27
BTAS_030       12.00 12.00 15.00   15.00    14.51   4.500.3     12   3.47
BTAS_090       12.00 12.00 16.00   16.00    12.01   4.582.5     11   3.54
BTASb1_007     10.00  9.80 10.00    9.80     9.90   2.827.0      4   2.18
BTASb3_014                                   9.50      90.0      1   0.07
BTASb4_014     10.00  8.50 10.00    8.50     9.85     378.0      5   0.29
BTASb4_028                                  12.00      45.0      1   0.03
BTASb5_007                                   8.00   1.000.0      1   0.77
BTASb5_014      9.50  9.00  9.50    9.00     9.10     131.0      2   0.10
BTASb7_001                                   6.00     211.0      1   0.16
BTASb7_007      8.00  6.00  9.00    7.00     7.89   2.123.0      8   1.64
BTASb7_030     13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00   1.646.0      4   1.27
BTASb7_090     16.00 16.00 16.00   16.00    16.00     749.0      3   0.58
CCBN_001        6.00  5.00 12.00   10.00     6.69   1.544.0     11   1.19
CCBN_007       10.00  9.00 10.00    9.00     9.25     923.0      9   0.71
CCBN_014       10.00  9.70 11.50    9.70    10.44   1.525.0     21   1.18
CCBN_030       12.25 10.00 14.00   14.00    13.55   2.107.0      7   1.63
CCBNb12007      9.00  9.00  9.50    9.50     9.23   2.050.0      5   1.58
CCBNb13007      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     370.0      2   0.29
CCBNb13014                                  10.00     184.0      1   0.14
CCBNb14028                                  12.50     193.0      1   0.15
CSBNb4_007     10.50  6.50 11.00    6.50     8.32     860.1      9   0.66
CSBNb5_007     10.50  6.50 10.50    6.50     8.34     740.0      4   0.57
CSBNb6_001      3.00  3.00  9.00    9.00     6.95     365.0      2   0.28
CSBNb6_007      9.20  8.00 10.00    8.00     8.37     626.1      5   0.48
DNBN_028                                    14.50      21.0      1   0.02
DTJLb1_007      5.00  5.00  8.50    5.00     7.29      70.0      6   0.05
EUBNb3_001      5.00  4.00  5.00    4.00     4.02   1.538.0      5   1.19
EUBNb3_007      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00   1.434.0      4   1.11
EUBNb3_014      9.00  8.00 10.00    8.00     9.28     488.0      4   0.38
EUBNb3_028     10.50  8.50 10.50    8.50    10.23     149.0      2   0.12
HSBKb10007      9.00  9.00  9.50    9.50     9.17   1.060.0      3   0.82
HSBKb3_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     145.0      2   0.11
HSBKp1_001      6.50  3.00  6.50    3.00     3.68   2.046.0      4   1.58
HSBKp1_003      6.00  4.00  6.00    4.00     4.56     694.0      2   0.54
HSBKp1_007      9.00  6.50  9.00    6.50     6.88   3.939.0      8   3.04
KASTb2_007      9.00  8.50  9.00    9.00     8.97   4.342.0      5   3.35
KIBNb3_028                                  10.50      36.0      1   0.03
KKGB_028                                    14.00      48.0      1   0.04
KKGBb2_007      7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00     511.1      2   0.39
KKGBb2_014     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00   1.533.2      4   1.18
KKGBp_014                                    8.50       5.0      1   0.00
KZIKb10028                                  12.00     420.0      1   0.32
KZIKb11007                                   8.00     160.0      1   0.12
KZIKb12028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     460.0      2   0.36
KZIKb2_028                                  12.00      70.0      1   0.05
KZIKb8_007      9.00  8.00  9.50    9.50     8.99   1.653.0      6   1.28
KZTCb1_007     10.50  8.50 10.50    8.50     9.17     114.0      4   0.09
KZTK_003                                     5.00       3.0      1   0.00
KZTK_007        7.00  7.00  7.00    7.00     7.00      56.0      2   0.04
NFBN_028       12.00  9.00 14.00    9.00    10.73   1.728.0     16   1.33
NRBNb2_001                                   5.00      65.0      1   0.05
NRBNb2_007      6.50  6.50  7.00    7.00     6.75     878.0      3   0.68
NRBNb2_014                                   8.50     412.0      1   0.32
NRBNb4_001                                   3.00     225.0      1   0.17
NRBNb4_007      9.50  7.00  9.50    7.00     8.52     393.0      4   0.30
NRBNb5_001      6.50  5.00  6.50    5.00     5.77     654.0      4   0.50
NRBNb5_007      9.50  6.50  9.50    8.50     8.12   1.889.0      5   1.46
ORDB_003                                     7.00     120.0      1   0.09
ORDB_007       11.00  8.00 11.00    8.00     8.77      90.0      4   0.07
ORDB_014       10.50 10.50 14.00   14.00    13.47     718.0      7   0.55
ORDB_028       14.00 12.00 15.00   12.00    14.16   1.019.0     12   0.79
ORDB_090                                    14.50      15.0      1   0.01
ORNKb1_028                                  11.00      20.0      1   0.02
PRKRb2_001      5.00  3.00  5.00    4.00     4.24  14.892.0     14  11.50
PRKRb2_007      9.00  8.50  9.00    9.00     8.94   2.041.0      3   1.58
PRKRb2_014                                  10.00     300.0      1   0.23
PRKRb2_028                                  10.50     491.0      1   0.38
RDGZ_001        6.15  0.50  6.15    6.15     4.64   6.127.1     10   4.73
RDGZ_007        9.50  6.00  9.50    9.00     7.72   1.509.1     13   1.17
RDGZ_014        9.00  8.50 10.00    8.50     9.04     122.0      9   0.09
RDGZ_028       12.50 10.00 12.50   10.00    12.27     440.0      3   0.34
RGBRb4_001                                   3.00      30.0      1   0.02
RGBRb4_014                                  10.00     135.0      1   0.10
RGBRb4_028                                  11.00      65.0      1   0.05
ROSA_028       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     180.0      2   0.14
TEBN_007        9.00  8.00  9.00    8.00     8.44     565.0      3   0.44
TEBN_014       11.00 10.50 11.00   10.50    10.68     696.0      3   0.54
TEBN_030       12.50 12.00 12.50   12.00    12.31     320.0      7   0.25
TEBNb16014                                  12.50      37.0      1   0.03
TEBNp_001                                    7.00      10.0      1   0.01
TSBN_014       11.00 10.00 11.80   10.00    10.89     637.0      7   0.49
UTMK_030       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1.500.1      3   1.16
VITAb5_030     13.00 13.00 15.00   15.00    14.83     175.0      2   0.14
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
TOTAL                                             129.517.1    487    100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.1% of the market

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Repo rate, % APR
Term of  -----------------------------------------  Volume,    Num-  Market
 repo,   on first  mini-  maxi-  on last  weighted       m.  ber of  share,
 days        deal    mum    mum     deal   average      KZT   deals       %
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
1            7.00   3.00   9.50     3.00      5.03    311.8       6    7.02
2            1.60   1.60  11.00     4.50      4.15    136.8       4    3.08
3            5.00   0.01  10.00    10.00      2.35  2,404.6      17   54.15
5                                             6.50     24.9       1    0.56
6            7.00   7.00   7.00     7.00      7.00    200.0       2    4.50
7                                             0.06     30.0       1    0.68
9                                             9.00      9.7       1    0.22
13          11.00  11.00  11.00    11.00     11.00     72.9       2    1.64
14           6.50   6.50   6.50     6.50      6.50     87.0       2    1.96
18           7.20   7.20   7.20     7.20      7.20    150.0       2    3.38
29          11.00   5.24  11.00     5.24      6.12    165.1       4    3.72
31           9.00   9.00   9.00     9.00      9.00     77.7       2    1.75
32           6.00   6.00   6.00     6.00      6.00    700.0       5   15.76
34                                            8.09     70.4       1    1.59
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
TOTAL                                               4,441.0      50     100
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[2008-03-18]