ANALYSIS: In February 2008 the repo market on KASE was marked by a quotes' decrease because of an absence of a demand

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, March 18, 2008/ - In February 2008 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 5,282 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,319.0 bn. or USD10,959.8 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 62.6% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in January 2008 - 73.3 %). Compared to January 2008 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT493.5 bn. ($4,096.8 m.) or by 27.2 %. Relative to February 2007, the volume of transactions decreased by KZT718.5 bn. ($5,383.8 m.) or by 0.6% (by 0.7% in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals on Kazakhstan market in February on comparable operations totaled 100.0%, in January 2008 the given indicator made 100%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in the analyzed month was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 92.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,220.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 73.1% (KZT964.0 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 19.4% (KZT256.5 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 7.5% of the sector's turnover (KZT98.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.1% (KZT14.5 bn.), deals in CS - 6.4% (KZT84.0 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in January 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 92.9% (GS -76.7%; CS - 16.2%); repo by nego method - 7.1% (GS - 0.7%; CS - 6.4%). As it was expected by IRBIS specialists, in March there was an increased demand on bonds of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. An actual volume of the offerings exceeded a plan by 30-40%. This fact averted an insignificant part of means from repo sector of KASE, which in some degree explains almost 30% decrease of the volume of deals in this sector. Specialists of IRBIS are inclined to entitle that a preparation of the second tier banks to the forthcoming redemption of syndicated loans could be another reason of the decreased volume of repo. However, these events do not need an attraction of additional means to the internal and external markets, which explains considerably low amplitude of quotes' fluctuations on repo market. This situation continued until the middle of the month. Nevertheless, as it typically used to be, in the second half of the month with the beginning of the tax payments, this segment of stock market was characterized by the rapid growth of quotes. So, TONIA indicator increased almost 6 times in comparison to the beginning of the analyzed month, up to 6.50% APR, with the further downward correction, and by the end of the month it almost returned to its initial position. Overall, in February average weighted repo quotes showed a decrease in comparison to January in allowable limits, which explains the absence of the correcting activities of the overhead bank of the country. IRBIS specialists partly connect this decrease with that fact that banks preferred currency market rather than repo market, satisfying its needs in Kazakh tenge by the sale of US dollars. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in February 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (6.4% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 73.1% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Num- Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, ber Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_001 2.50 0.10 8.00 1.00 2.33 374,923.4 1032 78.82 KZT_002 1.90 0.20 8.00 4.00 3.37 21,791.0 32 4.58 KZT_003 4.50 0.10 6.00 3.00 1.96 16,581.0 29 3.49 KZT_007 5.00 3.00 8.50 4.70 5.56 38,189.0 83 8.03 KZT_014 6.50 5.00 12.00 5.50 6.43 6,092.0 18 1.28 KZT_028 9.50 6.00 9.50 7.50 8.43 18,120.0 47 3.81 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ TOTAL 475,696.5 1,241 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 19.4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBNb3_001 3.50 149.0 1 0.12 ASBNb3_007 9.50 6.00 9.50 7.00 7.77 339.0 4 0.26 ASBNb4_001 3.50 129.0 1 0.10 ASBNb4_007 9.50 115.0 1 0.09 ASBNb4_014 8.50 115.0 1 0.09 ASFI_030 14.00 1.586.0 1 1.22 ASFIb5_001 6.50 4.00 6.50 4.00 4.94 645.0 4 0.50 ASFIb5_003 4.00 331.0 1 0.26 ASFIb5_007 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.01 889.0 3 0.69 ASFIb5_014 9.50 8.50 9.50 8.50 8.63 285.0 2 0.22 ASFIb5_030 8.50 70.0 1 0.05 ASFIb7_001 6.50 2.00 6.50 2.00 5.12 593.0 3 0.46 ASFIb7_003 6.00 200.0 1 0.15 ASFIb7_007 9.20 6.50 11.00 7.00 8.09 1.954.0 9 1.51 ASFIb7_014 11.00 8.50 11.00 10.00 9.99 740.0 4 0.57 ASFIb9_014 9.50 157.0 1 0.12 ASFIp_001 5.00 150.0 1 0.12 ASFIp_007 10.00 7.00 10.00 9.00 9.48 1.675.0 5 1.29 ASFIp_014 10.50 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.30 2.514.0 5 1.94 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 7.353.0 10 5.68 ATFBb4_002 6.50 117.0 1 0.09 ATFBb4_014 10.20 7.50 10.20 8.00 8.25 1.109.0 7 0.86 ATFBb5_007 8.25 8.25 9.50 9.50 8.66 1.486.0 4 1.15 ATFBb5_028 11.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.45 921.0 2 0.71 ATFBb6_007 8.00 2.00 8.00 2.00 7.03 755.0 4 0.58 ATFBb6_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 460.0 2 0.36 BTAIb4_001 5.50 80.0 1 0.06 BTAIb6_001 3.50 264.0 1 0.20 BTAIb6_007 9.00 6.50 9.50 7.00 7.98 470.0 4 0.36 BTAIb6_014 9.50 7.50 9.50 8.00 8.01 269.0 3 0.21 BTAS_001 5.00 3.00 9.00 5.00 4.49 1.025.4 14 0.79 BTAS_007 6.50 6.50 11.00 9.00 9.98 13.307.9 35 10.27 BTAS_030 12.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 14.51 4.500.3 12 3.47 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 16.00 16.00 12.01 4.582.5 11 3.54 BTASb1_007 10.00 9.80 10.00 9.80 9.90 2.827.0 4 2.18 BTASb3_014 9.50 90.0 1 0.07 BTASb4_014 10.00 8.50 10.00 8.50 9.85 378.0 5 0.29 BTASb4_028 12.00 45.0 1 0.03 BTASb5_007 8.00 1.000.0 1 0.77 BTASb5_014 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.10 131.0 2 0.10 BTASb7_001 6.00 211.0 1 0.16 BTASb7_007 8.00 6.00 9.00 7.00 7.89 2.123.0 8 1.64 BTASb7_030 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 1.646.0 4 1.27 BTASb7_090 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 749.0 3 0.58 CCBN_001 6.00 5.00 12.00 10.00 6.69 1.544.0 11 1.19 CCBN_007 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.25 923.0 9 0.71 CCBN_014 10.00 9.70 11.50 9.70 10.44 1.525.0 21 1.18 CCBN_030 12.25 10.00 14.00 14.00 13.55 2.107.0 7 1.63 CCBNb12007 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.23 2.050.0 5 1.58 CCBNb13007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 370.0 2 0.29 CCBNb13014 10.00 184.0 1 0.14 CCBNb14028 12.50 193.0 1 0.15 CSBNb4_007 10.50 6.50 11.00 6.50 8.32 860.1 9 0.66 CSBNb5_007 10.50 6.50 10.50 6.50 8.34 740.0 4 0.57 CSBNb6_001 3.00 3.00 9.00 9.00 6.95 365.0 2 0.28 CSBNb6_007 9.20 8.00 10.00 8.00 8.37 626.1 5 0.48 DNBN_028 14.50 21.0 1 0.02 DTJLb1_007 5.00 5.00 8.50 5.00 7.29 70.0 6 0.05 EUBNb3_001 5.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 4.02 1.538.0 5 1.19 EUBNb3_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1.434.0 4 1.11 EUBNb3_014 9.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 9.28 488.0 4 0.38 EUBNb3_028 10.50 8.50 10.50 8.50 10.23 149.0 2 0.12 HSBKb10007 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.17 1.060.0 3 0.82 HSBKb3_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 145.0 2 0.11 HSBKp1_001 6.50 3.00 6.50 3.00 3.68 2.046.0 4 1.58 HSBKp1_003 6.00 4.00 6.00 4.00 4.56 694.0 2 0.54 HSBKp1_007 9.00 6.50 9.00 6.50 6.88 3.939.0 8 3.04 KASTb2_007 9.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.97 4.342.0 5 3.35 KIBNb3_028 10.50 36.0 1 0.03 KKGB_028 14.00 48.0 1 0.04 KKGBb2_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 511.1 2 0.39 KKGBb2_014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 1.533.2 4 1.18 KKGBp_014 8.50 5.0 1 0.00 KZIKb10028 12.00 420.0 1 0.32 KZIKb11007 8.00 160.0 1 0.12 KZIKb12028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 460.0 2 0.36 KZIKb2_028 12.00 70.0 1 0.05 KZIKb8_007 9.00 8.00 9.50 9.50 8.99 1.653.0 6 1.28 KZTCb1_007 10.50 8.50 10.50 8.50 9.17 114.0 4 0.09 KZTK_003 5.00 3.0 1 0.00 KZTK_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 56.0 2 0.04 NFBN_028 12.00 9.00 14.00 9.00 10.73 1.728.0 16 1.33 NRBNb2_001 5.00 65.0 1 0.05 NRBNb2_007 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.75 878.0 3 0.68 NRBNb2_014 8.50 412.0 1 0.32 NRBNb4_001 3.00 225.0 1 0.17 NRBNb4_007 9.50 7.00 9.50 7.00 8.52 393.0 4 0.30 NRBNb5_001 6.50 5.00 6.50 5.00 5.77 654.0 4 0.50 NRBNb5_007 9.50 6.50 9.50 8.50 8.12 1.889.0 5 1.46 ORDB_003 7.00 120.0 1 0.09 ORDB_007 11.00 8.00 11.00 8.00 8.77 90.0 4 0.07 ORDB_014 10.50 10.50 14.00 14.00 13.47 718.0 7 0.55 ORDB_028 14.00 12.00 15.00 12.00 14.16 1.019.0 12 0.79 ORDB_090 14.50 15.0 1 0.01 ORNKb1_028 11.00 20.0 1 0.02 PRKRb2_001 5.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 4.24 14.892.0 14 11.50 PRKRb2_007 9.00 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.94 2.041.0 3 1.58 PRKRb2_014 10.00 300.0 1 0.23 PRKRb2_028 10.50 491.0 1 0.38 RDGZ_001 6.15 0.50 6.15 6.15 4.64 6.127.1 10 4.73 RDGZ_007 9.50 6.00 9.50 9.00 7.72 1.509.1 13 1.17 RDGZ_014 9.00 8.50 10.00 8.50 9.04 122.0 9 0.09 RDGZ_028 12.50 10.00 12.50 10.00 12.27 440.0 3 0.34 RGBRb4_001 3.00 30.0 1 0.02 RGBRb4_014 10.00 135.0 1 0.10 RGBRb4_028 11.00 65.0 1 0.05 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 180.0 2 0.14 TEBN_007 9.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.44 565.0 3 0.44 TEBN_014 11.00 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.68 696.0 3 0.54 TEBN_030 12.50 12.00 12.50 12.00 12.31 320.0 7 0.25 TEBNb16014 12.50 37.0 1 0.03 TEBNp_001 7.00 10.0 1 0.01 TSBN_014 11.00 10.00 11.80 10.00 10.89 637.0 7 0.49 UTMK_030 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1.500.1 3 1.16 VITAb5_030 13.00 13.00 15.00 15.00 14.83 175.0 2 0.14 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 129.517.1 487 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.1% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 7.00 3.00 9.50 3.00 5.03 311.8 6 7.02 2 1.60 1.60 11.00 4.50 4.15 136.8 4 3.08 3 5.00 0.01 10.00 10.00 2.35 2,404.6 17 54.15 5 6.50 24.9 1 0.56 6 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 200.0 2 4.50 7 0.06 30.0 1 0.68 9 9.00 9.7 1 0.22 13 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 72.9 2 1.64 14 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 87.0 2 1.96 18 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 150.0 2 3.38 29 11.00 5.24 11.00 5.24 6.12 165.1 4 3.72 31 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 77.7 2 1.75 32 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 700.0 5 15.76 34 8.09 70.4 1 1.59 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 4,441.0 50 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-03-18]