ANALYSIS: In February 2008, shares market of KASE continued a careful growth
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, March 17, 2008/ - In February 2008 2,104 deals were registered with shares in all sectors, including deals, made on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT29,079.3 m. or $247.0 m. at the current exchange rate on dates, on which deals were made.
The specified amount makes 56.5 % of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in January - 68.0%) and 1.4% of the entire month exchange turnover (1.1%).
Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in February and January 2008
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Month:
---------------------
--------- ---------- Trend
February, January, February 2008
Indicator 2008 2008 to January 2008
------------------------------------- --------- ---------- ---------------
Trades volume, th. USD 246,955.0 219,355.3 +12.6,%
Trades volume, m KZT 29,728.9 26,407.8 +12.6,%
Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х
including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD 1,245.88 116.0 +973.7,%
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 149.93 14.0 +974.7,%
Number of deals 2,104 1,712 +22.9,%
Number of instruments, 40 39 +2.6,%
involved in deals
Average day number of deals 100 86 +17.0,%
Average day volume of deals, th. USD 11,759.8 10,967.8 +7.2,%
Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.9 1.4 +0.5,пп
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 5.2 10.2 -5.0,пп
Part of pension assets, % on gross 9.1 3.2 +5.9,пп
Part of physical entities, % on gross 14.9 16.3 -1.3,пп
Part of non-residents entities, % on 16.7 7.5 +9.2,пп
gross
Number of exchange's members, 53 42 +26.2,%
who made deals
Market concentration, %* 46.7 51.9 -5.2,пп
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*it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE)
Shares market of KASE continued January growth; however, changes have considerably careful character. High level of volatility on the external markets of funding contributed to this, nevertheless, an optimism of investors is in the process, which served as a restrictive factor of this growth.
By the results of January, on London stock exchange, GDR prices of common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC continued falling fell by 8.5% (+13.4% in January). Negative trend of the securities' quotes of the flagship of the economy of Kazakhstan is explained by the undetermined situation on the introduction of tariffs on export of oil by the government authorities of Kazakhstan. Accordingly, the level of implication of this measure to the given issuer is also not determined. By all appearances, the market disposed pessimistic expectations, and the fall of the GDR of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC can be stopped only by a distinctly synchronized position of the government of the Kazakhstan about this question, that is an adoption of decisions of government bodies that will be obligatory to execute, which will assume changes in the tax and custom regimes concerning the company. Herewith, a situation on the trade markets favors companies operating in oil sector - during one month the price of mixture of Light Sweet Crude Oil (NYMEX) increased by 14.5% up to $101.84. Prices on common stocks of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC have also dropped on KASE. (see Results of trades in shares on KASE on February 2008)
Equity securities of banks of Kazakhstan, which were laid with minus sign on LSE during the last quarter of last year, returns to the growth dynamics from the beginning of a current year. Shares of Halyk Savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC increased by 4.4% (+13.9% in January), Kazkommertsbank JSC - by 17.5% (+7.9 %), and Alliance Bank JSC - by 22.7 % (+3.8 %). Almost all shares of banks of Kazakhstan showed a growth on KASE. (see Results of trades in shares on KASE on February 2008)
Nervous situation on the world exchanges, fever of the main indices, and a permanent fall of US dollar in relation to the main currencies to daily antirecords holding against expectations of the USA recession forthcoming, turned investors to the developing markets. Besides, banks themselves actively spread positive news about their functioning in the normal working regime in February. Thus Alliance Bank JSC, whose trust rating suffered the most from the current crisis, informed about a reconsideration of its credit policy and correction of model of customer crediting. There were many gossips around Kazkommertsbank JSC in February, which the bank was actively refusing. However, intrinsically inside has proven about a health condition of the bank and qualitative approach to risk management - for instance, information about planned issue of Eurobonds in 2008 and acquisition of a large block of shares by the aside investor. The bank itself proved information about its participation in the government program on stabilization of social and economic development, within which the bank finances projects of two large construction companies in Astana (BI group and KUAT); the risks from the project are taken by the bank. Overall, features of the rapid collapse of the banking system that was shadowed by the international rating agencies is not observed on the market, though the final results can be done only in the second half of the current year, when crisis agiotage will drop, and how local banks are relative towards the external markets it will be finally clear.
Shares of KAZAKHMYS PLС on LSE increased by 27.2% (11.2% in January) - in February the company announced that the program of redemption of own shares in the range of $400 m., started on October 24, 2007, was finished.
In whole, by results of February, average weighted day prices were divided on two parts according to growth and fall - in February 38% of shares showed the growth and 45% of shares showed the fall in February. Maximum trends showed ZNGRp shares that increased by 673.6% and aASND shares that decreased by 54.5% in February.
Below are given the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the analyzed month more fully.
Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in Febraury 2008 (end of month, change over the month)
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Shares: Issuers:
------------- Instruments -------------
Category of ------ ----- ------ -----
admission number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 45 0 45 0 31 0
B 46 0 46 0 40 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 91 0 91 0 68 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N 5 0 5 0 5 0
A+B+N 96 0 96 0 73 0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 23 +2 23 +2 16 +2
A+B+C+N 96 0 119 +2 74 0
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Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE;
"А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion.
Changes of KASE index for different periods at the moment of trades' closing on February 29, 2008 (basis actual/365)
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Change:
------------
----- -----
Period % % APR
-------------------------------- ----- -----
For previous 30 days +3.9 +47.9
For the last 365 days (year) +2.5 +14.5
For year 2006 +3.9 +3.9
Since the beginning of year 2005 +12.2 +12.2
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Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in February of year 2008
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Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of
pitalization, deals, deals, deals
Data m. USD KASE Index th. USD m. KZT
--------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
January 1, 08 52,415.18 2,625.54 4,910.0 590.2 96
February 1, 08 53,499.20 2,627.62 5,422.6 651.3 77
February 4, 08 53,596.76 2,635.19 2,798.2 336.3 92
February 5, 08 52,681.74 2,640.02 32,218.7 3,877.5 78
February 6, 08 52,042.61 2,545.57 6,571.0 791.0 99
February 7, 08 51,963.96 2,544.43 18,842.9 2,265.7 156
February 8, 08 51,521.48 2,577.73 55,069.5 6,627.6 83
February 11, 08 51,415.13 2,578.98 7,390.4 889.4 74
February 12, 08 52,310.70 2,625.55 2,685.8 323.3 96
February 13, 08 52,807.53 2,625.96 5,397.5 649.4 92
February 14, 08 52,934.91 2,647.50 8,733.4 1,049.3 89
February 15, 08 52,874.12 2,657.52 4,747.1 570.8 58
February 18, 08 53,428.13 2,710.64 8,982.4 1,078.5 107
February 19, 08 55,012.17 2,725.30 19,568.3 2,351.9 161
February 20, 08 55,502.38 2,794.59 4,914.8 590.4 127
February 21, 08 56,733.82 2,858.11 11,949.0 1,436.5 194
February 22, 08 55,844.44 2,755.16 3,418.8 411.6 109
February 25, 08 55,463.45 2,768.41 2,670.4 321.8 79
February 26, 08 55,749.08 2,774.85 4,178.6 504.6 82
February 27, 08 56,400.41 2,759.35 3,506.3 423.5 103
February 28, 08 56,362.38 2,735.09 5,379.7 650.2 88
February 29, 08 55,844.18 2,701.84 31,404.2 3,795.2 53
--------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
Trend +3,429.0 +76.30 , , ,
% +6.5 +2.9 , , ,
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Results of trades in shares on KASE in January 2008 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals)
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Price, tenge per share:
-------------------------------------------------
------- ------- -------------- ------------------ Volume Num-
on last deal for last 365 days:
-------------- ------------------
-------- --------- of deals, ber
Shares trend th. de-
code min. max. price % min. max. USD als
------- ------- ------- ------- ------ -------- --------- --------- -----
aASND 25.000 25.000 25.000 . 5.060 55.000 17.6 1
aHSBK 528 561 561 . 500 650 32.9 5
aHSBKp1 308 308 308 . 300 350 2.6 1
AMGZp 38.000 38.000 38.000 . 20.000 75.000 69.5 1
ASAV 153.000 168.300 153.000 . 34.351 168.300 253.5 9
ASBN 23.000 28.710 26.300 +15.86 14.000 69.000 394.4 20
ASBNp1 11.000 12.000 11.000 -8.33 10.610 25.000 1.076.0 13
ASFIp 10.591 10.597 10.591 . 4.001 14.500 26.294.2 2
aTEBNp 2.530 2.717 2.717 . 1.500 2.717 87.4 3
ATFBp8 5.800 5.800 5.800 +3.57 1.570 8.999 3.7 2
AZNO 9.957 11.606 11.606 . 9.200 11.606 201.2 2
BTAS 66.000 85.000 79.500 +3.52 850 157.275 58.028.2 249
CCBN 1.550 1.675 1.625 -0.37 1.000 2.050 14.858.0 166
CHFM 957 990 990 . 900 1.501 116.5 4
CSBN 5.550 6.105 5.800 -3.34 4.522 8.000 495.2 11
DNBN 3.600 3.795 3.600 -5.14 1.400 6.728 221.8 6
GB_KZMS 2.900 3.720 3.720 +27.62 2.640 3.800 563.7 34
HSBK 486 542 525 +4.79 402 781 715.7 65
HSBKp 285 292 285 -3.72 285 334 92.4 5
HSBKp1 290 318 318 -5.14 270 353 369.1 27
KIBN 330 374 374 +10.00 110 1.150 131.5 14
KKGB 860 1.255 1.055 +18.54 600 1.430 40.969.3 682
KKGBp 350 390 390 +8.33 191 499 9.133.3 38
KZTCp 2.150 2.310 2.150 -4.44 1.044 8.750 89.9 6
KZTK 31.800 34.500 32.300 -0.62 31.800 52.100 7.413.9 97
KZTKp 17.000 23.500 17.505 -5.38 14.500 27.100 472.4 23
MMGZp 12.500 15.500 12.501 -19.35 7.000 16.050 3.752.3 57
NFBN 4.500 4.501 4.500 -2.17 2.530 7.623 449.9 22
NRBN 22.000 22.000 22.000 +10.00 17.500 54.050 32.9 1
ORDB 2.750 4.000 2.750 -31.25 2.750 4.600 59.1 4
RAHT 2.800 3.000 3.000 -28.57 1.000 4.200 79.7 3
RDGZ 17.100 20.000 17.500 -7.36 13.000 24.595 9.657.5 339
ROSA 580 580 580 . 580 723 24.1 1
TEBN 7.000 7.300 7.000 -2.78 4.450 9.000 52.256.3 24
TEBNp 2.400 2.800 2.627 +9.47 1.114 3.200 2.034.4 63
TSBN 1.680 2.200 2.200 +22.22 1.680 4.550 1.099.8 45
TSBNp 1.070 1.133 1.133 -1.48 1.070 2.415 55.8 2
UTMK 27.000 27.000 27.000 0 27.000 28.750 171.1 6
ZERD 4 4 4 0 4 5 515.6 2
ZNGRp 10.000 10.000 10.000 . 450 10.000 759.6 2
------- ------- ------- ------- ------ -------- --------- --------- -----
40 233.052.1 2.057
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Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (January 1-31, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated.
Top-10 of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in February 2008, including STF RFCA
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Base of liquidity
indicator calculation (Kl):
------------------------------------
-------- -------- -------- ------
Position Liqui Volume Number Number Position
in February Share dity of deals number of KASE of in
2008 symbol indica KZT, of deals mem bers result January,
tor(Kl) mln days 2007
----------- ------ ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ --------
1 KKGB 2.9 4,926.7 682 82 21 1
2 BTAS 2.1 6,982.6 249 58 21 4
3 RDGZ 1.9 1,162.7 339 66 21 2
4 CCBN 1.4 1,788.2 166 43 21 3
5 KZTK 1.0 891.9 97 34 14 6
6 HSBK 0.9 86.1 65 30 18 5
7 TEBN 0.8 6,289.2 24 7 9 15
8 KKGBp 0.72 1,098.1 38 23 13 7
9 TEBNp 0.66 244.7 63 16 15 17
10 HSBKp1 0.6 44.4 27 7 21 12
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Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades. Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in corresponding chapter of the document, published at see more in Russian language and at see more in English language.
10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates)
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As of January 31, 08: as of December 29, 07: Change:
--------------------- ---------------------- ----------------
--- -------- ------ ---- -------- ------ -------- ------
Company's code or po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi-
name
on KASE (the same si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake,
code is used for ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, %
common share) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points
----------------- --- -------- ------ ---- -------- ------ -------- ------
KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 13.816.2 24.74 1 11.032.3 21.12 +2.783.9 +3.62
EP Kazmunaygas 2 10.168.5 18.21 2 11.001.9 21.06 -833.4 -2.85
Bank TuranAlem 3 5.506.2 9.86 3 5.095.8 9.75 +410.5 +0.11
Kazkommertsbank 4 5.454.9 9.77 4 4.585.1 8.78 +869.7 +0.99
Halyk bank 5 4.544.4 8.14 5 4.387.9 8.40 +156.6 -0.26
Kazakhtelecom 6 2.983.3 5.34 6 3.015.2 5.77 -31.9 -0.43
Alliance Bank 7 2.133.8 3.82 8 1.832.5 3.51 +301.2 +0.31
ATFBank 8 2.032.3 3.64 7 2.024.9 3.88 +7.5 -0.24
Bank CenterCredit 9 1.752.3 3.14 9 1.773.5 3.39 -21.2 -0.26
Temirbank 10 1.213.1 2.17 10 1.241.1 2.38 -28.0 -0.20
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Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of February 29, 2008 was $55,844.2 m. There were 91 shares of 68 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of codes of issuers with the names of companies is published at see more
[2008-03-17]