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07.02.2008 16:33 #KASE news

/CORRECTED/ ANALYSIS: In January 2008, shares market of KASE looked somewhat better than in December

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, Ruslan Dzyubaylo, February 7, 08, re-sent due to correction of total amount of shares in second table/ - In January 2008 1,711 deals were registered with shares in all sectors, including deals, made on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT26,393.9 m. or $219.3 m. at the current exchange rate on dates, on which deals were made.

The specified amount makes 68.0% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in December - 54.1%) and 1.1% of the entire month exchange turnover (1.5%).

Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in January 2008 and December 2007

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Month:
                                      ---------------------            Trend
                                       January, December,       January 2008
Indicator                                  2008        2007 to December 2007
------------------------------------- --------- ----------- ----------------
Trades volume, th. USD                219,239.3   393,711.3          -44.3,%
Trades volume, m KZT                   26,393.9    47,518.5          -44.5,%
Including on offerings, th. USD               -           -                Х
including on offerings, m. KZT                -           -                Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD                -           -                Х
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT                 -           -                Х
Number of deals                           1,711       1,511          +13.2,%
Number of instruments,                       39          46          -15.2,%
involved in deals
Average day number of deals                  86          84           +2.0,%
Average day volume of deals, th. USD   10,973.4    21,872.8          -49.8,%
Stake of nego deals (number), %             1.4         4.6          -3.2 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), %            10.2        13.3          -3.1 pp
Part of pension assets, % on gross          3.2         2.3          +0.9 pp
Part of physical entities, % on gross      16.3        18.5          -2.3 pp
Part of non-residents entities, % on        7.5        33.6         -26.1 pp
gross
Number of exchange's members,                42          46           -8.7,%
who made deals
Market concentration, %*                   51.9        38.5         +13.4 pp
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
* it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is 
  numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total 
  number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE)

By the results of January, on London stock exchange, GDR prices of common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC fell by 13.4% (+14.3% in December), KAZAKHMYS PLС - by 11.2 % (+1.7 %). GDR of Halyk saving bank of Kazakhstan JSC grew by 13.9% (-13.1%), and GDR of Kazkommertsbank JSC - by 7.9% (+13.7%), GDR of Alliance Bank JSV - by 3.8% (-18.0%).

Overall, by the results of January, the growth of weighted average day prices was shown by 38% of share denominations involved in deals (31% in December), 45% (53%) of shares showed reduction, 18% (16%) - unchanged trend. The next shares demonstrated the maximal trends as of month's results: KANT grew by 225.6 %, HSBKp fell in price by 25.4%.

Despite of the relative low activity during January, stocks market looked fairly positive, which is seen by the dynamics of KASE index that has increased by 11.7% since the beginning of year. From the stand point of technical analysis, the index achieved to lock in at the level of 2,600 points and to shift the horizontal consolidation channel up by 100 points to 2,500-2,700 points.

The growth of stocks market was happening against the background of global concerns regarding the U.S. economy, which was proved the whole month by the coming statistical data. Particularly, it became known that the U.S. GDP grew only by 0.6% in the fourth quarter against the forecasted 1.2%. In case if in the first quarter of 2008 another decrease in the growth rate of economy is observed, it would be possible to talk about the recession of the American economy as a matter of fact. As a result, in the response to the wild reaction of markets on January 21 ( the Monday, named by the journalists "black" with a reference on the black Monday on October 19, 1987), the Federal Reserve System (the U.S. FRS) had to decrease the prime rate twice: on January 22 by 75 b.p. (which turned to be a complete surprise for the market) and on January 30 by 50 b.p.

The big probability of recession of the American and consequently global economy caused decrease in forecasts of the main resources consumption, which has led to their reduction of prices. For example, Brent Forties oil cheapened by 2.2% over the month down to $92.23 per barrel (during January the oil price for this brand fell to $87.71 per barrel). The talks about an imposture of a state duty on oil export have also deteriorated the situation for the Kazakhstani oil-producing companies. Thus, for the shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC (RDGZ) that influence in the greatest way the capitalization of the domestic market and also for the KASE index, a decrease by 10.7% was registered.

The message about repayment of the first tranche of the syndicated loan to the sum of $700 m. by Kazkommertsbank, together with a considerable oversold character of Kazakhstani bonds and stirring up on the market of mergers and acquisitions in the Kazakhstani banking system have led to decreased of yield to maturity on all Eurobonds of Kazakhstani organizations. Prices on shares in Kazakhstan that react keenly to the trends on foreign markets of debt liabilities from recent time have reacted by the movements in different directions. Common shares of Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGB) that used to be greatly oversold earlier rejoiced with 13% growth, and so did common shares of Temirbank JSC (TEBN) that increased by almost 18%. In contrast to them, the shares of Halyk Savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC fell by 4.6 % and those of Bank TuranAlem - "- "3.4 %.

IRBIS analysts forecast a smooth continuation of growth of stocks market in February on KASE with short-term downward corrections. Traders who have been considerably tired of the last five negative months will react keenly to every positive news. The main point for growth will be the banking sector of the country that will go up following the growth of Eurobonds on foreign markets, and also waiting for new news about mergers and acquisitions. Shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC will continue being traded at the same level due to uncertainty over imposed state duties from one side, and the message about an increase in the explored stocks of the company from another one.

Below are given the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the analyzed month more fully.

Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in January 2008 (end of month, change over the month)

---------------------------------------------------
                  Shares:                  Issuers:
Category of  ------------  Instruments ------------
admission    number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A                45     0     45     0     31     0
B                46    +1     46    +1     40    +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B              91    +1     91    +1     70    +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N                 5     0      5     0      5     0
A+B+N            96    +1     96    +1     75    +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA)     21     0     21     0     14     0
A+B+C+N          97    +1    117    +1     76    +1
---------------------------------------------------

Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE;
"А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion.

Changes of KASE index for different periods at the moment of trades' closing on January 31, 2008 (basis actual/365)

--------------------------------------------
                                     Change:
                                 -----------
Period                               % % APR
-------------------------------- ----- -----
For previous 30 days              -0.4  -4.8
For the last 365 days (year)      +3.5  +3.5
For year 2006                    +12.2 +12.2
Since the beginning of year 2005 +11.7  +5.6
--------------------------------------------

Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in January of year 2008

----------------------------------------------------------------------
                   Market ca-            Volume of Volume of Number of
                pitalization,               deals,    deals,     deals
Data                   m. USD KASE Index   th. USD    m. KZT
--------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
December 29, 07      53,830.7   2,637.02  38,870.5   4,676.1        53
January 3, 08        53,957.9   2,640.15   1,196.3     144.0        28
January 4, 08        53,652.6   2,600.12  76,350.3   9,204.0        74
January 8, 08        53,577.4   2,587.90   5,507.2     664.4        67
January 9, 08        55,240.1   2,624.95   2,323.3     280.3        56
January 10, 08       55,348.1   2,640.19  10,830.6   1,306.0       114
January 11, 08       55,921.4   2,676.91   6,526.7     786.3        91
January 14, 08       55,606.5   2,680.48   1,886.8     227.3        55
January 15, 08       56,451.8   2,740.60   2,066.2     248.8        95
January 16, 08       55,286.7   2,675.15   3,281.9     394.6       124
January 17, 08       54,500.1   2,650.86   7,874.7     945.4        55
January 18, 08       52,946.2   2,609.12   1,682.6     202.3        70
January 21, 08       52,591.7   2,607.29   3,338.9     402.3        76
January 22, 08       51,751.9   2,518.01  15,320.6   1,844.0        97
January 23, 08       52,139.4   2,582.24   6,373.6     766.5        71
January 24, 08       52,584.2   2,591.71  56,019.7   6,734.7        96
January 25, 08       52,618.4   2,610.51   1,775.8     213.3        77
January 28, 08       52,301.6   2,596.34   3,255.7     391.3       100
January 29, 08       53,383.2   2,611.59   3,528.1     424.3       122
January 30, 08       52,646.8   2,599.54   5,190.2     624.0       147
January 31, 08       52,415.2   2,625.54   4,910.0     590.2        96
--------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
Trend                -1,415.5     -11.48
%                        -2.6       -0.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Results of trades in shares on KASE in January 2008 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals)

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Price, tenge per share:
        ------------------------------------------------
                         on last deal for last 365 days:    Volume  Num-
                        ------------- ------------------ of deals,   ber
Shares                          trend                          th.   de-
code       min.    max.   price     %      min.     max.       USD   als
------- ------- ------- ------- ----- --------- -------- --------- -----
ASBN     20,000  22,700  22,700  -9.2    14,000   69,000      81.8     6
ASBNp1   12,000  12,000  12,000 -14.3    10,610   25,000      22.5     1
ASFI     15,000  15,000  15,000     0     8,100   15,000     400.0     8
ATFB      8,727   9,700   8,727 -12.7     8,100   14,000     138.7     8
ATFBp     4,818   5,200   4,818 -12.4     3,000    6,500     128.7     6
ATFBp8    5,600   5,700   5,600  -1.8     1,566    8,999      62.2     3
BTAS     69,100  80,000  76,800  -3.4       850  157,275  37,117.0   102
CCBN      1,311   1,720   1,631 +18.2     1,000    2,050  14,210.1   270
CSBN      5,550   6,000   6,000  -1.6     4,500    8,000     189.7    13
DNBN      3,600   3,960   3,795  +5.4     1,400    6,728   3,482.7    24
EXBNp     1,900   1,900   1,900     0     1,100    2,200      11.0     1
GB_KZMS   2,640   3,200   2,915  -9.0     2,640    3,700     274.3    19
HSBK        450     515     501  -4.6       402      781   1,691.2    84
HSBKp       296     296     296  -0.7       290      334      29.1     1
HSBKp1      305     336     336  +8.2       249      353     261.5    22
KANT        770   2,971   2,971     ,       770    2,971  75,904.9    15
KIBN        340     340     340     0       110    1,150      46.6     4
KKGB        705     890     890 +12.9       600    1,550  12,895.3   477
KKGBp       340     360     360  +2.3       190      499   2,433.5    55
KZIS     61,000  61,000  61,000     ,    33,000   75,000      17.7     1
KZTCp     2,250   2,400   2,250  -6.3     1,044    8,750      49.9     6
KZTK     32,500  37,100  32,500 -11.7    32,500   55,000   1,031.0    47
KZTKp    18,000  21,300  18,500 -11.9    12,380   27,100     461.7    13
LNAT      8,700   8,700   8,700     0     1,649    9,999       3.6     1
MMGZp    13,000  15,600  15,500 +19.2     7,000   16,050   1,619.1    44
NFBN      4,500   4,800   4,600  +2.1     2,530    7,623     627.2    32
NRBN     20,000  20,010  20,000  -0.3    17,500   54,050     141.7     8
NRBNp6   13,000  13,000  13,000  +4.8    12,400   27,800      17.1     1
ORDB      4,000   4,000   4,000     ,     2,807    4,600      87.4     3
PDES        976     976     976     0       920    1,096     334.8     1
RAHT      3,000   4,200   4,200 +20.0     1,000    4,200      20.0     4
RDGZ     18,051  24,595  18,890 -10.7    13,000   24,595  13,472.3   332
SUMB    300,000 302,000 302,000  +0.7   270,000  302,000   1,669.3     2
TEBN      7,000   7,200   7,200  +2.9     4,450    9,000  24,372.2     6
TEBNp     2,400   2,500   2,400  -2.8     1,114    3,200   2,445.8    26
TSBN      1,800   2,250   1,800 -18.2     1,800    4,550     940.5    36
TSBNp     1,150   1,200   1,150  -6.5     1,150    2,415      49.1     2
UTMK     27,000  27,000  27,000     ,    27,000   28,750      58.4     2
ZERD          4       4       4  -9.2         3        5       8.7     1
------- ------- ------- ------- ----- --------- -------- --------- -----
39                                                       196,808.7 1 687
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (December 1-29, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated.

Top-10 of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in January 2008, including STF RFCA

--------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Base of liquidity
                                indicator calculation (Kl):
                          ---------------------------------
  Position          Liqui   Volume            Number Number Position
in January Share     dity of deals   number  of KASE    of        in
      2008 symbol  indica    KZT,  of deals mem bers result  August,
                  tor(Kl)      mln                     days     2007
---------- ------ ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ --------
         1 KKGB       2.6  1,551.5      477       74     20        2
         2 RDGZ       2.0  1,621.3      332       55     20        1
         3 CCBN       1.8  1,709.8      270       48     19        3
         4 BTAS       1.3  4,463.0      102       29     18        4
         5 HSBK       1.1    203.5       84       35     17        5
         6 KZTK       1.0    124.0       47       28     19        7
         7 KKGBp      0.8    292.7       55       18     17        8
         8 KANT       0.7  9,150.4       15        7      3        -
         9 TSBN       0.6    113.2       36       17     12       14
        10 MMGZp      0.5    194.7       44        9     11       15
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades. Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in corresponding chapter of the document, published at see more in Russian language and at see more in English language.

10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  As of January 31, 08: as of December 29, 07:         Change:
                  --------------------- ---------------------- ---------------
Company's code or  po-     capi-  stake  po-     capi-   stake    capi-
name
on KASE (the same  si-   taliza- of the  si-   taliza-  of the  taliza- stake,
code is used for   ti-     tion, compa-  ti-     tion,  compa-    tion,      %
common share)       on     m USD  ny, %   on     m USD   ny, %    m USD points
----------------- ---- --------- ------ ---- --------- ------- -------- ------
KAZAKHMYS PLС        1  11,203.3  21.37    2  12,308.7   22.87 -1,105.4  -1.49
EP Kazmunaygas       2  11,001.9  20.99    1  12,439.1   23.11 -1,437.2  -2.12
Bank TuranAlem       3   5,095.8   9.72    3   4,642.4    8.62   +453.4  +1.10
Kazkommertsbank      4   4,585.1   8.75    5   4,081.1    7.58   +504.0  +1.17
Halyk bank           5   4,387.9   8.37    4   4,262.5    7.92   +125.4  +0.45
Kazakhtelecom        6   3,015.2   5.75    6   3,368.5    6.26   -353.3  -0.51
ATFBank              7   2,024.9   3.86    8   2,252.1    4.18   -227.3  -0.32
Alliance Bank        8   1,832.5   3.50    7   2,049.4    3.81   -216.8  -0.31
Bank CenterCredit    9   1,773.5   3.38    9   1,445.7    2.69   +327.8  +0.70
Temirbank           10   1,241.1   2.37   10   1,211.4    2.25    +29.7  +0.12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of January 31, 2008 was $52,415.2 m. There were 94 shares of 70 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of codes of issuers with the names of companies is published at see more

[2008-02-07]