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06.02.2008 21:24 #KASE news

ANALYSIS: In January 2008 repo rates on KASE increased because of traditional high need in tenge, characteristic for the beginning of a year

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, February 6, 08/ - In January 2008 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,459 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,812.5 bn. or USD15,056.5 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 73.3% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in December 2007 - 57.0%).

Compared to December 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT52.3 bn. ($556.5 m.) or by 3.0% (by 3.8% in dollar terms). Relative to January 2007 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT219.8 bn. ($1,100.3 m.) or by 10.8% (by 6.8% times in dollar terms).

Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in January on comparable operations totaled 100%, in December 2007 - 100%.

Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows:

  • the stake of automatic repo transactions was 92.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,684.1 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 76.7% (KZT1,390.9 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 16.2% (KZT293.2 bn.);
  • the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 7.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT128.4 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.7% (KZT13.1 bn.), deals in CS - 6.4% (KZT115.3 bn.).

For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in Decemebr, 2007 was as follows: autorepo - 94.4% (GS - 75.7%; CS - 18.7%); repo by nego method - 5.6% (GS - 0.4%; CS - 5.2%).

In the first month of a new year on repo market, a growth of rates with a subsequent downward correction was observed. The most pronounced rise was noted at the beginning of the second half of January when TONIA indicator increased almost twice to 10.35% APR, and the weighted average rate on repo operations with seven0day term that had had the second place by quantity and volume of deals grew from 7.39 % APR to 9.38 % APR. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, this can be explained by the need to make payments in the state budget and the need in tenge of the companies, traditional for the first quarter of each year (annual payments in the budget, repayment on the long-term contracts, payment to the auditors and other expenses, directly or indirectly related to the end of year).

It is worth noting the high degree of participation of the National Bank in this segment of market in the analyzed month. Following the main directions of a new monetary and credit policy, the National Bank actively satisfied the needs in money of the second tier banks, having smoothing by that the sharp fluctuations of rates.

In February IRBIS specialists expect the conservation of the repo rates on the current level. Among the factors that are able to hold the decrease in yield on repo operations the next can be emphasized: reduction of banks' in buying dollar, and also floatation of MEOKAM and MUIKAM, planned by the Ministry of finance. Thus, floatation of MUIKAM can tie some part of free money and will work for growth of TONIA indicator.

Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in January 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.9% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table).

Automatic repo with GS - 76.7% of the market

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
 Instrument                                         Volume,  Num- Market
            -------------------------------------             ber
(currency,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted       KZT    of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average        m. deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
KZT_000         2.00  1.00  3.50    1.00     1.80   7,500.0     6   1.11
KZT_001         4.00  0.10 20.00    1.00     4.55 509,968.3  1288  75.28
KZT_002         4.00  0.50  8.70    2.00     3.29  17,111.0    23   2.53
KZT_003         6.00  1.00  9.00    2.00     4.34  10,505.0    34   1.55
KZT_007         9.50  4.00 12.00    5.50     8.03  83,497.0   138  12.33
KZT_014         9.00  5.70  9.50    7.00     8.36  29,998.0    41   4.43
KZT_028         9.50  8.50 12.00    9.50     9.40  18,805.0    64   2.78
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------
ИТОГО                                             677,384.4 1,594    100
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Automatic repo with CS - 16.2% of the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
 Instrument -------------------------------------   Volume,   Num- Market
(security,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted        m. ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       KZT  deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ASBN_090        8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00   1,978.0      5   1.37
ASBNb3_001      5.50  5.00  7.50    7.50     6.24     617.0      6   0.43
ASBNb3_003      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      60.0      1   0.04
ASBNb3_007      8.00  8.00 10.00    9.50     9.39     479.0      6   0.33
ASBNb4_001      5.50  5.00  6.00    5.00     5.51     598.0      5   0.41
ASBNb4_007      9.50  9.00  9.50    9.00     9.25     229.0      3   0.16
ASBNb4_014     10.50 10.50 10.50   10.50    10.50      23.0      2   0.02
ASFIb5_001      6.00  5.50  8.00    8.00     6.27     813.0      5   0.56
ASFIb5_003      9.00  6.50  9.00    8.00     7.34     295.0      3   0.20
ASFIb5_007      9.50  9.00  9.50    9.50     9.42   1,687.0      9   1.17
ASFIb5_014     10.00 10.00 11.00   10.00    10.81     258.0      3   0.18
ASFIb5_030     10.50 10.50 10.50   10.50    10.50      10.0      1   0.01
ASFIb6_003      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00      50.0      1   0.03
ASFIb7_001      6.50  4.00  8.00    6.50     6.16   2,073.0     12   1.44
ASFIb7_003      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     375.0      1   0.26
ASFIb7_007      9.50  8.50 10.00    9.00     9.39   2,902.0     11   2.01
ASFIb7_014     10.00 10.00 11.50   10.50    10.71     882.0      8   0.61
ASFIb8_007     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00     230.0      1   0.16
ASFIb9_007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     109.0      9   0.08
ASFIp_001       8.50  8.50  8.50    8.50     8.50     215.0      2   0.15
ASFIp_007      12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   1,000.0      1   0.69
ASFIp_014      12.00 11.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   2,006.0      3   1.39
ASFIp_028      11.84 11.84 11.84   11.84    11.84   6,097.0      9   4.22
ATFBb3_007     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50   1,400.0      2   0.97
ATFBb4_001      7.00  7.00  9.50    9.00     9.20     400.0      5   0.28
ATFBb4_002      9.50  9.00  9.50    9.00     9.26     780.0      8   0.54
ATFBb4_014     10.50 10.00 11.50   10.00    10.78     840.0      6   0.58
ATFBb6_001      6.00  5.00  6.00    5.00     5.17      30.0      2   0.02
ATFBb6_028     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     460.0      3   0.32
BRKZe2_001      7.00  5.00  7.00    5.00     6.07   2,150.0      2   1.49
BRKZe2_003      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     500.0      1   0.35
BRKZe2_007     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00   1,000.0      1   0.69
BRKZe3_001      7.00  5.00  7.00    5.00     5.80   1,476.0      3   1.02
BRKZe4_001      7.00  5.00  7.00    5.00     6.17     618.0      3   0.43
BTAIb14002      9.00  8.00 12.00    8.00     9.14   1,173.0      5   0.81
BTAIb6_001      5.50  5.50  6.00    6.00     5.56     307.0      2   0.21
BTAIb6_007      8.00  8.00  9.50    9.00     9.31     857.0      5   0.59
BTAIb6_014     11.00  9.50 11.00   10.50    10.44     187.0      4   0.13
BTAS_001        5.00  4.00 11.00    6.50     6.22   5,914.7     36   4.10
BTAS_007       11.50  6.50 14.00    8.00    10.66  17,091.7     74  11.84
BTAS_030       11.00 10.50 15.00   15.00    13.51   5,555.4     15   3.85
BTAS_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   3,200.1      7   2.22
BTASb1_007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00      64.0      4   0.04
BTASb2_028     10.50 10.50 11.00   11.00    10.90     188.0      2   0.13
BTASb3_014     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00      91.0      3   0.06
BTASb4_007      9.50  9.50  9.50    9.50     9.50      39.0      1   0.03
BTASb4_014     10.85  9.50 10.85    9.50    10.48     595.0      4   0.41
BTASb4_028     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00      39.0      1   0.03
BTASb5_001      6.50  6.50  6.50    6.50     6.50     124.0      3   0.09
BTASb5_007      9.00  8.00  9.50    8.00     8.76   2,107.0      9   1.46
BTASb5_014     10.00 10.00 10.50   10.50    10.20     129.0      2   0.09
BTASb5_028     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00      70.0      1   0.05
BTASb7_001      7.00  6.50  7.00    6.50     6.91     458.0      5   0.32
BTASb7_007      9.50  9.00 10.50    9.00     9.85   1,215.0      6   0.84
CCBN_001        7.00  3.00  7.00    6.00     6.55     227.0      5   0.16
CCBN_007       10.50  9.00 11.50   11.50    10.18   1,051.0     11   0.73
CCBN_014       11.00  0.00 12.00   11.25    11.36   2,979.0     21   2.06
CCBN_030        9.00  9.00 13.00   12.50    12.09   1,032.0     10   0.71
CCBN_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   8,558.0      5   5.93
CCBNb12007     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50     600.0      2   0.42
CCBNb13001      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     161.0      1   0.11
CCBNb13007      9.50  9.00  9.50    9.00     9.25     366.0      2   0.25
CCBNb13014     10.50 10.50 10.50   10.50    10.50     183.0      1   0.13
CCBNb14028     12.50 12.50 12.50   12.50    12.50     150.0      1   0.10
CSBNb4_007     11.00  9.00 11.00    9.00    10.55   1,117.1     15   0.77
CSBNb5_007     11.00 10.50 11.00   10.50    10.70     878.0      5   0.61
CSBNb6_007     11.00  9.00 11.00    9.00     9.82     416.0      5   0.29
DNBN_028       14.50 14.50 14.50   14.50    14.50      21.0      2   0.01
EUBNb3_001      5.50  4.00  5.50    4.00     4.63     345.0      4   0.24
EUBNb3_007      9.00  8.00  9.50    8.00     8.54     895.0      6   0.62
EUBNb3_014     11.00 10.00 11.00   10.50    10.72   1,614.0     13   1.12
EUBNb3_028     11.00 10.50 11.00   10.50    10.53     320.0      2   0.22
HSBKb10007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     100.0      1   0.07
HSBKb7_028     13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     325.0      1   0.23
HSBKb9_001      8.00  5.00  8.00    7.00     6.32     188.0      4   0.13
HSBKp1_001      6.50  3.50  7.00    6.50     4.61   2,641.0     17   1.83
HSBKp1_003      6.00  6.00  9.00    6.00     8.07   1,809.0      7   1.25
HSBKp1_007      9.50  8.50 10.00    8.50     9.01   1,612.0      3   1.12
HSBKp1_014     10.00 10.00 11.00   10.50    10.76     423.0      3   0.29
KKGB_001        4.00  4.00  4.50    4.50     4.47      86.0      5   0.06
KKGB_007       11.00 11.00 12.00   12.00    11.64     218.0      3   0.15
KKGB_028       10.00 10.00 12.00   12.00    11.66      58.0      2   0.04
KKGBb2_007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     812.3     11   0.56
KKGBb2_014     11.00 10.00 11.00   10.00    10.64   1,762.2      5   1.22
KKGBp_007       8.50  8.50  8.50    8.50     8.50       4.0      1   0.00
KKGBp_014      10.50 10.50 10.50   10.50    10.50       9.0      1   0.01
KZIKb11007      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00     160.0      1   0.11
KZIKb12028     12.00 12.00 13.00   13.00    12.69     802.0      3   0.56
KZIKb2_028     12.00 11.00 12.00   11.00    11.67     180.0      2   0.12
KZIKb3_014     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     300.0      1   0.21
KZIKb6_007     11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00      56.0      1   0.04
KZIKb8_007      9.50  9.50  9.50    9.50     9.50     937.0      1   0.65
KZIKb9_014     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     730.0      2   0.51
KZIKb9_028     13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00      71.0      1   0.05
KZTCb1_007     11.00 10.50 11.00   10.50    10.63     148.0      7   0.10
KZTK_014       11.00  9.00 11.00    9.00    10.26      86.0      4   0.06
NFBN_028        9.00  9.00 13.00    9.00    10.44   2,402.0     20   1.66
NRBNb2_001      5.50  4.50  7.50    4.50     5.56   1,828.1      6   1.27
NRBNb2_003      6.50  6.00  6.50    6.00     6.38     196.0      3   0.14
NRBNb2_007     10.00  9.50 10.00    9.50     9.60   1,230.0      5   0.85
NRBNb4_001      5.00  5.00  7.00    7.00     6.34     679.0      3   0.47
NRBNb4_007     11.00  8.50 11.00    9.00     9.40     793.0      6   0.55
NRBNb5_001      5.50  4.50  6.50    6.50     5.57   3,465.0     11   2.40
NRBNb5_003      5.50  5.00  5.50    5.00     5.21     453.0      2   0.31
NRBNb5_007      8.00  8.00 10.50    9.50     9.64   1,372.0     16   0.95
ORDB_003        6.00  6.00 10.00   10.00     9.82     178.0      2   0.12
ORDB_007       10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     240.0      4   0.17
ORDB_014       11.50 11.50 14.00   14.00    13.39     732.0     12   0.51
ORDB_028       14.50 14.00 15.00   14.50    14.65   1,255.0     17   0.87
ORNKb1_007      9.30  9.30  9.30    9.30     9.30      28.0      1   0.02
ORNKb1_014     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00      42.0      2   0.03
PRKRb2_007      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     112.0      5   0.08
PRKRb2_014      9.50  9.50 11.00   10.50    10.55   1,129.0      8   0.78
PRKRb2_028     11.00 10.50 13.00   11.00    12.10     384.0     10   0.27
RDGZ_001        5.00  1.00  8.50    1.00     7.78   9,099.1     11   6.30
RDGZ_007       11.50  9.00 11.50   10.00    10.31     772.1      9   0.53
RDGZ_014       10.50 10.40 11.50   10.50    10.94   1,408.1     11   0.98
RDGZ_028       11.00 11.00 11.00   11.00    11.00      62.0      2   0.04
ROSA_028       13.00 13.00 13.00   13.00    13.00     180.0      2   0.12
ROSA_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     120.0      1   0.08
TEBN_001        7.00  4.50  7.00    4.50     6.19   1,449.0      9   1.00
TEBN_007       11.50  9.00 11.50   11.50    10.68   1,340.0      6   0.93
TEBN_014       12.00 11.00 12.00   11.00    11.74     965.0      4   0.67
TEBN_030       14.00 14.00 15.00   15.00    14.60      53.0      2   0.04
TSBN_001        5.50  5.50  5.50    5.50     5.50      40.0      1   0.03
TSBN_007       10.00 10.00 10.50   10.00    10.22      72.0      3   0.05
TSBN_014       11.00 10.50 12.50   10.50    11.33   1,139.0      6   0.79
TSBN_030       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00      15.0      1   0.01
UTMK_007       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   3,000.1      6   2.08
UTMK_030       14.00 14.00 14.00   14.00    14.00   1,500.1      3   1.04
VITAb5_030     15.00 15.00 15.00   15.00    15.00     160.0      1   0.11
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
TOTAL                                             144,368.6    741    100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.7% of the market

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Repo rate, % APR
Term of  -----------------------------------------  Volume,    Num-  Market
 repo,   on first  mini-  maxi-  on last  weighted       m.  ber of  share,
 days        deal    mum    mum     deal   average      KZT   deals       %
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
0                                                      33.3       1    0.34
2            4.00   4.00   4.00     4.00      4.00    218.6       8    2.24
3            1.50   1.50   1.50     1.50      1.50    135.0       4    1.39
5            8.50   5.00   8.50     5.00      7.27    778.6      10    7.99
6            5.50   5.50   5.50     5.50      5.50    101.0       1    1.04
7            6.00   6.00   6.00     6.00      6.00  1,023.4       1   10.51
8            6.00   5.44   6.00     5.44      5.99  4,671.6       6   47.96
10           6.39   6.39   6.39     6.39      6.39     38.0       1    0.39
17           8.01   8.01   8.01     8.01      8.01     20.0       1    0.21
21           8.00   8.00  10.51     8.00     10.32    119.5       5    1.23
30           9.50   9.50   9.50     9.50      9.50     35.5       1    0.36
31           9.50   7.01  11.00     7.01      8.43  1,486.0      11   15.26
32           9.50   9.50  11.00    11.00     10.29    110.1       2    1.13
34          14.00  14.00  14.00    14.00     14.00    333.0       4    3.42
125          7.50   7.50   7.50     7.50      7.50    637.5       6    6.54
-------  --------  -----  -----  -------  --------  -------  ------  ------
TOTAL                                               9,741.2      62     100
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[2008-02-06]