ANALYSIS: In November 2007 repo rates on KASE fell due to conserved high volume of short-term tenge liquidity

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, December 6, 07/ - In November 2007 at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 8,271 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,251.8 bn. or USD18,656.8 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 59.4% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in October 2007 - 77.8%). Compared to October 2007 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT283.2 bn. ($2,322.7 m.) or by 11.2% (by 11.1% in dollar terms). Relative to November 2006 the volume of transactions increased by KZT738.9 bn. ($6,830.0 m.) or 1.5 times (1.6 times in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in November on comparable operations totaled 100%, in October 2007 - 100%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 93.7% of the sector's turnover (KZT2,110.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 78.4% (KZT1,765.4 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 15.3% (KZT345.1 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 6.3% of the sector's turnover (KZT141.2 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.4% (KZT7.7 bn.), deals in CS - 5.9% (KZT133.5 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in October, 2007 was as follows: autorepo - 94.8% (GS - 80.0%; CS - 14.8%); repo by nego method - 5.2% (GS - 0.2%; CS - 5.0%). In November, 2007 on repo market, decrease in repo rates on autorepo deals with GS was observed; traditionally, they form the main stake of turnover of repo market on KASE. While in October, the weighted average repo overnight rate was at 4.43% APR, in the analyzed month, it totaled 3.28% APR. This allows supposing that the period of placing short money on repo market by the majority of participants who have been observing the reaction of the market of corporate securities on the consequences of August events from a "high mountain" has continued. However, the volume of deals decreased in comparison with October while in the sector of purchase-sale of shares it grew almost six times. It is not unlikely that some investors start buying cheapened shares since no fundamental factors that would be able to push the market of shares further down have been seen. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in November 2007 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.9% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 78.4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_000 4.00 77.0 1 0.01 KZT_001 4.00 0.20 9.50 0.50 3.28 705,452.5 1747 80.61 KZT_002 2.00 1.00 5.00 2.00 2.73 44,244.0 53 5.06 KZT_003 3.00 3.00 9.00 4.00 5.34 6,803.0 13 0.78 KZT_007 5.50 4.50 9.00 5.00 7.37 85,732.0 128 9.80 KZT_014 6.00 6.00 9.00 6.00 7.34 5,562.0 11 0.64 KZT_028 9.00 8.50 11.00 9.00 9.23 27,254.0 103 3.11 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ TOTAL 875,124.6 2,056 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 15.3% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument -------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ALLZb1_001 7.00 70.0 1 0.04 ASBN_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 15.0 3 0.01 ASBN_014 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 20.0 2 0.01 ASBNb3_001 5.00 5.00 8.50 7.00 7.13 901.0 8 0.53 ASBNb3_007 9.50 9.50 10.50 10.50 10.13 457.0 5 0.27 ASBNb4_001 5.00 5.00 8.00 6.00 7.27 1,196.0 12 0.71 ASBNb4_007 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.52 357.0 5 0.21 ASFIb5_001 6.00 4.80 8.00 5.00 6.14 2,547.0 16 1.50 ASFIb5_003 8.00 7.50 8.00 7.50 7.98 468.0 3 0.28 ASFIb5_007 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.85 1,543.0 13 0.91 ASFIb5_014 11.50 133.0 1 0.08 ASFIb7_001 6.00 5.50 8.50 5.50 6.89 6,279.0 19 3.71 ASFIb7_003 9.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.59 1,453.0 3 0.86 ASFIb7_007 10.00 9.50 10.00 10.00 9.68 2,148.0 8 1.27 ASFIb7_014 10.50 10.50 11.00 11.00 10.75 160.0 2 0.09 ATFBb3_001 6.00 6.00 7.00 6.00 6.35 2,309.0 7 1.36 ATFBb3_003 6.50 80.0 1 0.05 ATFBb3_007 10.00 503.0 1 0.30 ATFBb4_002 9.25 9.00 10.00 9.50 9.68 1,527.0 8 0.90 ATFBb4_014 11.50 10.00 12.50 10.00 11.07 1,146.0 6 0.68 ATFBb5_007 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 400.0 2 0.24 ATFBb6_001 8.00 6.00 9.00 8.00 7.84 1,693.0 21 1.00 ATFBb6_007 10.50 70.0 1 0.04 ATFBb6_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 38.0 3 0.02 BTAIb4_001 9.00 6.50 9.30 6.50 8.79 744.0 13 0.44 BTAIb5_014 11.50 11.00 11.50 11.00 11.27 271.0 2 0.16 BTAIb6_001 6.50 6.00 7.00 6.00 6.25 1,048.0 7 0.62 BTAIb6_003 7.50 298.0 1 0.18 BTAIb6_007 9.70 9.00 9.70 9.50 9.58 438.0 4 0.26 BTAIb6_014 9.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 11.67 146.0 3 0.09 BTAS_001 7.50 1.00 10.50 3.00 6.71 17,713.0 79 10.46 BTAS_007 10.00 8.00 12.50 10.00 10.14 11,438.1 72 6.75 BTAS_030 12.00 9.00 16.00 16.00 12.36 7,289.8 22 4.31 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 16.00 16.00 12.01 4,703.4 13 2.78 BTASb1_007 9.50 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.76 832.1 12 0.49 BTASb1_030 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 10.60 206.0 2 0.12 BTASb2_028 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 32.0 2 0.02 BTASb3_014 10.50 10.00 10.50 10.00 10.26 201.0 2 0.12 BTASb4_001 8.00 6.00 9.30 7.00 6.79 1,314.0 12 0.78 BTASb4_007 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.50 446.0 5 0.26 BTASb4_014 10.50 10.50 10.75 10.75 10.63 821.0 3 0.48 BTASb4_028 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 40.0 2 0.02 BTASb5_001 7.50 5.50 8.00 5.50 6.65 842.0 5 0.50 BTASb5_003 9.50 7.00 9.50 7.50 8.74 1,622.0 3 0.96 BTASb5_007 9.50 6.50 10.00 9.00 8.37 2,900.1 18 1.71 BTASb5_014 12.00 10.75 12.00 10.75 11.04 435.0 2 0.26 BTASb7_001 2.00 2.00 8.50 6.00 7.59 4,892.0 10 2.89 BTASb7_007 8.00 8.00 10.00 10.00 9.42 1,331.0 3 0.79 BTASb7_090 12.00 12.00 16.00 16.00 13.24 2,320.0 7 1.37 CCBN_001 8.00 8.00 10.00 10.00 8.89 1,301.0 10 0.77 CCBN_007 9.50 9.50 11.50 10.00 10.63 1,018.0 13 0.60 CCBN_014 11.00 11.00 11.50 11.00 11.25 1,078.0 11 0.64 CCBN_030 9.00 9.00 12.50 12.50 10.56 384.0 3 0.23 CCBN_060 15.00 400.0 1 0.24 CCBN_090 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,524.0 3 0.90 CCBNb13001 6.00 250.0 1 0.15 CCBNb13007 9.25 9.25 10.00 10.00 9.79 567.0 3 0.33 CCBNb13014 11.00 159.0 1 0.09 CCBNb14001 8.50 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.63 219.0 4 0.13 CCBNb14007 9.50 150.0 1 0.09 CCBNb7_001 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 820.0 2 0.48 CCBNb7_003 9.00 7.00 9.00 7.00 7.67 1,244.0 3 0.73 CSBNb4_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 854.1 7 0.50 CSBNb5_001 7.50 6.50 7.50 6.50 6.87 79.0 3 0.05 CSBNb5_007 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.74 685.0 6 0.40 CSBNb6_001 6.00 5.50 7.50 5.50 6.31 470.0 6 0.28 CSBNb6_003 6.50 29.0 1 0.02 CSBNb6_007 9.00 9.00 11.00 10.00 10.30 635.0 6 0.38 EUBNb3_001 7.00 5.50 8.00 5.50 6.79 1,421.0 11 0.84 EUBNb3_007 9.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.69 1,983.0 13 1.17 EUBNb3_014 11.00 10.00 11.00 10.75 10.75 1,642.0 10 0.97 GLOTb2_028 12.00 12.00 14.00 14.00 13.73 149.0 2 0.09 HSBKb10003 6.50 155.0 1 0.09 HSBKb10007 9.00 24.0 1 0.01 HSBKb10030 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 220.0 2 0.13 HSBKb3_001 30.00 6.00 30.00 6.00 11.28 394.0 3 0.23 HSBKb3_003 6.50 6.50 9.50 9.50 7.21 478.0 3 0.28 HSBKb3_007 9.50 250.0 1 0.15 HSBKb3_014 11.00 76.0 1 0.04 HSBKb9_001 7.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 6.82 280.0 5 0.17 HSBKp1_001 5.50 5.50 8.00 6.50 6.28 3,150.0 15 1.86 HSBKp1_003 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 1,440.0 4 0.85 HSBKp1_007 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.49 3,275.0 12 1.93 HSBKp1_014 11.00 10.60 11.00 11.00 10.87 1,041.0 4 0.61 KKGB_001 7.00 72.0 1 0.04 KKGB_007 10.00 9.00 435.00 9.00 38.37 361.0 8 0.21 KKGB_028 10.50 47.0 1 0.03 KKGBb2_007 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.73 1,348.2 6 0.80 KKGBb2_014 10.50 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.42 1,007.3 5 0.59 KKGBb2_028 10.50 10.50 11.00 11.00 10.75 162.1 2 0.10 KKGBb5_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 340.0 2 0.20 KKGBp_007 9.50 8.0 1 0.00 KKGBp_014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 16.0 2 0.01 KZIKb11001 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1,200.0 4 0.71 KZIKb11003 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,200.0 4 0.71 KZIKb12001 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 490.0 2 0.29 KZIKb12003 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 490.0 2 0.29 KZIKb2_028 11.00 200.0 1 0.12 KZIKb3_028 10.50 134.0 1 0.08 KZIKb6_028 11.00 100.0 1 0.06 KZIKb9_001 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1,935.0 3 1.14 KZIKb9_003 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,590.0 2 0.94 KZIKb9_007 6.50 790.0 1 0.47 KZTCb1_001 6.50 22.0 1 0.01 KZTCb1_007 9.70 9.50 11.00 9.50 10.31 115.0 4 0.07 KZTK_001 9.00 6.50 9.00 6.50 8.95 1,228.2 15 0.73 KZTK_007 9.70 9.50 9.70 9.50 9.60 50.0 2 0.03 KZTK_014 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.32 79.1 4 0.05 NFBN_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 600.0 5 0.35 NRBNb2_001 5.00 5.00 8.00 6.00 7.05 2,390.1 21 1.41 NRBNb2_003 7.50 102.0 1 0.06 NRBNb2_007 9.00 9.00 10.50 10.00 10.00 1,195.7 11 0.71 NRBNb4_001 5.00 5.00 9.50 6.00 7.29 3,120.0 16 1.84 NRBNb4_007 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.64 514.0 6 0.30 NRBNb5_001 10.00 5.00 10.00 6.00 7.32 5,586.0 20 3.30 NRBNb5_003 9.50 6.50 9.50 7.50 7.73 1,779.0 6 1.05 NRBNb5_007 11.00 9.50 11.00 10.00 9.90 1,039.0 4 0.61 ORDB_003 11.50 360.0 1 0.21 ORDB_007 12.30 12.30 12.30 12.30 12.30 270.0 2 0.16 ORDB_028 14.50 13.20 14.50 14.50 14.15 1,225.0 14 0.72 ORNKb1_001 9.50 57.0 1 0.03 PRKRb2_028 10.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 10.69 664.0 8 0.39 RDGZ_001 6.00 5.00 10.00 7.00 6.87 2,359.1 12 1.39 RDGZ_007 10.50 9.00 10.50 9.50 9.58 5,324.1 20 3.14 RDGZ_014 11.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.44 2,126.0 7 1.26 RDGZ_028 11.50 500.0 1 0.30 RGBRb3_007 10.00 65.0 1 0.04 RGBRb4_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 161.0 5 0.10 RGBRb4_014 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 205.0 4 0.12 TEBN_001 7.00 3.00 8.50 3.00 7.28 2,404.0 14 1.42 TEBN_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 2,050.0 9 1.21 TEBN_014 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 500.0 2 0.30 TEBNp_001 9.00 50.0 1 0.03 TSBN_001 7.50 34.0 1 0.02 TSBN_003 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 16.0 2 0.01 TSBN_014 11.50 350.0 1 0.21 TSBN_030 13.00 167.0 1 0.10 TSBNb3_003 9.50 450.0 1 0.27 TSBNb3_007 8.00 450.0 1 0.27 UTMK_007 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,500.2 9 2.66 VITAb4_030 14.50 49.0 1 0.03 ----------- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 169,328.3 912 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.4% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 2.27 2.27 11.50 11.50 5.19 255.4 6 5.02 2 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 50.0 2 0.98 3 0.39 0.12 0.39 0.12 0.37 31.2 2 0.61 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 163.9 4 3.22 7 7.00 5.00 7.00 5.00 5.32 2,380.5 5 46.78 8 8.00 185.7 1 3.65 9 0.10 20.0 1 0.39 20 10.02 200.0 1 3.93 21 7.00 7.00 9.00 9.00 8.04 821.4 5 16.14 28 7.01 1.00 7.01 1.00 5.23 540.5 5 10.62 30 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 329.2 4 6.47 31 8.00 15.0 1 0.29 97 5.50 10.0 1 0.20 103 5.50 85.7 1 1.68 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 5,088.6 39 100 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