REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN AND GOVT SUBS ON WATCH NEG PENDING EXTERNAL FINANCING RISK ASSESSMENT
03.10.07 11:51
/Standard & Poor's, London, October 2, 07/ - Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it placed the Republic of Kazakhstan's 'BBB/A-3'
sovereign foreign currency ratings and 'BBB+/A-2' sovereign local currency
ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"The CreditWatch placement follows growing concern about the more
adverse international financial environment, which affects Kazakhstan
through the very substantial external financing needs of the domestic
banking system," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Luc Marchand.
Net external debt of the financial system rose from 15% of current account
receipts at year-end 2003 to a projected 58% at year-end 2007, financing an
unprecedented domestic credit boom.
"Tighter liquidity conditions will contribute to an expected significant
slowdown of credit growth, reducing the overall speed at which the Kazakh
economy expands and potentially compromising asset quality in the future,"
added Mr. Marchand.
As the repricing of risk in international financial markets persists and
intensifies, Kazakhstan's banks are among the most vulnerable institutions
in Eastern Europe and the CIS. To the extent that banking institutions'
refinancing risks rise, this will affect sovereign creditworthiness through
the eventual budgetary realization of contingent liabilities and the further
decline in foreign exchange reserves. Standard & Poor's will request and
analyze additional information from the Kazakh authorities to complete its
assessment of the refinancing and fiscal risks.
Due to their tight relationships with the Kazakh government, which are a key
supporting factor in their respective ratings, Standard & Poor's has also
placed the ratings of the following Kazakh-based institutions on CreditWatch
with negative implications: Development Bank of Kazakhstan ('BBB/Watch
Neg/A-3'); Kazpost (JSC) (BB+/Watch Neg/-); Kazakh Agrarian Credit Corp.
(BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3); and Mortgage Guarantee Fund of Kazakhstan (JSC)
(BB/Watch Neg/-).
Standard & Poor's expects to resolve all CreditWatch actions by Oct. 9,
2007. Given the government's strong balance-sheet position, an adjustment
in the long-term ratings is unlikely to exceed one notch.
Primary Credit Analyst:
Luc Marchand, London, (44) 20-7176-7111;
luc_marchand@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Credit Analysts:
Ben Faulks, London, (44) 20-7176-7108;
ben_faulks@standardandpoors.com
Moritz Kraemer, Frankfurt, (49) 69-33-99-9249;
moritz_kraemer@standardandpoors.com
Additional Contact:
Sovereign Ratings;
SovereignLondon@standardandpoors.com
[2007-10-03]