ANALYSIS: In August 2007 under influence of world liquidity crisis the repo rates on KASE increased to four years' maximum

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 17, 07/ - In August 2007 at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,307 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,282.5 bn. or USD18,263.9 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 58.2% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in July 2007 - 64.5%). Compared to July 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT160.9 bn. ($880.3 m.) or by 7.6% (by 5.1% in dollars). Relative to August 2006 the volume of transactions increased by KZT727.8 bn. ($5,667.7 m.) or 1.5 times (1.4 times in dollars). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in August on comparable operations totaled 99.9%, in July 2007 - 99.0%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 94.0% of the sector's turnover (KZT2,144.7 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 84.5% (KZT1,928.3 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 9.5% (KZT216.4 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 6.0% of the sector's turnover (KZT137.8 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.3% (KZT6.4 bn.), deals in CS - 5.7% (KZT131.4 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in July 2007 was as follows: autorepo - 93.7% (GS - 82.4%; CS - 11.3%); repo by nego method - 6.3% (GS - 1.4%; CS - 4.9%). The significant growth of repo rates on Kazakhstan market in the analyzed month had become the consequence of so-called global liquidity crisis. Under influence of it and also as then result of rushed purchasing by the population of the cash dollars, banks were actively purchasing the American currency on internal market. It had lead to increased need in tenge, which had become the main reason of growth of cost of short money. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in August 2007 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.7% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 84.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ---------- ----- ------ KZT_001 6.00 0.00 17.00 7.00 8.36 513,099.20 1269 51.54 KZT_002 10.50 4.00 10.80 10.80 8.17 6,727.00 14 0.68 KZT_003 5.00 4.00 10.00 6.00 6.60 2,173.00 8 0.22 KZT_007 9.00 6.50 10.50 9.00 8.99 471,455.15 527 47.35 KZT_014 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.22 1,560.01 19 0.16 KZT_028 5.00 5.00 9.50 9.50 8.97 579.00 6 0.06 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ---------- ----- ------ TOTAL 995,593.4 1,843 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 9.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ALLZb1_030 11.50 29.00 1 0.03 ASBN_030 10.75 7.00 10.75 8.00 8.04 1,947.05 6 1.77 ASBNb3_001 6.00 6.00 7.50 7.50 6.75 320.00 2 0.29 ASBNb3_007 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 480.00 3 0.44 ASBNb4_001 6.00 120.00 1 0.11 ASBNb4_014 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.12 250.00 4 0.23 ASFI_030 12.00 32.01 1 0.03 ASFIb5_003 9.00 9.00 10.50 10.50 9.46 490.00 2 0.45 ASFIb5_007 7.50 7.00 10.50 10.50 7.92 584.00 8 0.53 ASFIb5_014 9.50 9.50 10.00 10.00 9.73 769.00 6 0.70 ASFIb7_001 6.00 6.00 10.00 10.00 7.05 2,620.00 5 2.39 ASFIb7_014 9.50 9.50 11.20 11.20 10.35 1,639.00 8 1.49 ASFIp_014 9.57 9.57 13.17 13.17 10.88 2,200.00 3 2.01 ASFIp_028 9.57 9.57 9.57 9.57 9.57 3,263.01 5 2.97 ATFBb4_014 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 1,310.00 8 1.19 ATFBb5_007 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 1,990.00 4 1.81 ATFBb6_001 9.90 250.00 1 0.23 ATFBb6_014 9.00 9.00 13.00 13.00 11.71 163.00 5 0.15 ATFBb6_028 10.50 9.50 13.00 9.50 10.84 286.00 6 0.26 ATFBp8_028 9.30 120.00 1 0.11 BTAIb10028 9.50 8.30 9.50 8.30 8.75 1,608.00 2 1.47 BTAIb5_014 9.25 9.25 10.60 10.60 9.92 303.00 2 0.28 BTAIb7_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 200.00 2 0.18 BTAS_001 5.50 5.50 11.00 8.50 9.08 3,150.69 12 2.87 BTAS_007 7.00 7.00 10.00 9.80 8.57 3,859.79 26 3.52 BTAS_030 9.00 7.00 15.00 15.00 9.27 19,756.46 56 18.01 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,570.50 10 4.17 BTASb1_028 8.50 8.50 9.50 9.50 9.44 235.02 4 0.21 BTASb2_028 9.30 8.50 9.50 9.50 9.30 432.02 4 0.39 BTASb3_014 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 212.02 2 0.19 BTASb4_014 9.00 7.50 9.20 9.00 8.85 755.03 6 0.69 BTASb5_007 10.50 9.00 10.50 10.00 9.77 1,580.03 8 1.44 BTASb7_001 6.50 6.50 10.50 10.50 9.29 655.03 9 0.60 BTASb7_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 400.01 2 0.36 BTASb7_030 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 13.17 1,084.01 5 0.99 CCBN_001 7.50 5.50 7.50 5.50 6.69 134.00 2 0.12 CCBN_007 7.00 203.00 1 0.19 CCBN_014 11.20 140.00 1 0.13 CCBN_030 9.50 9.50 12.00 12.00 9.96 1,335.01 13 1.22 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 6,044.01 6 5.51 CCBNb12007 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 1,370.00 5 1.25 CSBNb4_007 9.50 9.20 9.50 9.20 9.40 717.01 3 0.65 CSBNb5_001 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.29 424.02 4 0.39 CSBNb5_007 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.37 363.05 7 0.33 CSBNb6_001 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 344.00 2 0.31 CSBNb6_003 10.50 174.01 1 0.16 CSBNb6_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 302.02 2 0.28 DNBN_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 209.01 10 0.19 EUBNb3_001 6.00 6.00 10.50 10.50 8.10 938.00 5 0.86 EUBNb3_007 7.50 7.00 10.00 10.00 8.17 750.00 13 0.68 EUBNb3_014 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.25 800.00 4 0.73 EUBNb3_028 10.00 9.50 10.00 9.80 9.68 855.00 3 0.78 GLOTb2_028 10.00 17.00 1 0.02 HSBKp1_001 8.00 8.00 11.00 10.00 10.45 2,350.00 12 2.14 HSBKp1_007 7.00 7.00 11.50 10.00 10.02 1,286.00 5 1.17 HSBKp1_030 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.38 803.00 2 0.73 KASTb1_028 12.00 500.00 1 0.46 KASTb2_007 12.00 1,000.00 1 0.91 KKGB_028 9.00 9.00 10.50 10.50 9.46 147.00 2 0.13 KKGBb2_007 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.27 915.17 7 0.83 KKGBb2_014 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 383.05 2 0.35 KKGBb2_028 10.00 8.50 10.00 9.50 9.74 520.18 5 0.47 KKGBp_001 10.00 80.00 1 0.07 KKGBp_007 7.50 7.00 10.00 7.00 7.62 408.00 4 0.37 KKGBp_014 11.20 255.00 1 0.23 KKGBp_028 8.00 12.00 1 0.01 KZIKb8_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 184.00 5 0.17 KZTC_001 7.00 7.00 11.00 11.00 9.58 5,025.43 39 4.58 KZTC_007 7.00 7.00 12.00 12.00 9.84 1,598.10 10 1.46 KZTCb1_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 48.00 4 0.04 KZTK_001 10.50 9.00 11.00 9.00 10.70 390.04 6 0.36 KZTK_003 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 203.06 3 0.19 KZTK_007 7.00 41.03 1 0.04 KZTK_028 9.50 9.00 13.00 12.00 9.49 926.13 10 0.84 NRBNb2_001 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 1,354.01 3 1.23 NRBNb2_003 9.00 9.00 10.50 10.50 9.90 754.01 2 0.69 NRBNb2_007 9.00 167.00 1 0.15 NRBNb2_014 8.00 8.00 8.50 8.50 8.07 115.01 2 0.10 NRBNb4_001 6.00 6.00 10.50 10.50 8.75 1,979.00 10 1.80 NRBNb4_007 8.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 8.50 140.00 2 0.13 NRBNb5_001 10.00 80.00 1 0.07 NRBNb5_003 10.50 80.00 1 0.07 NRBNb5_007 8.70 80.00 1 0.07 ORDB_007 7.00 7.00 9.00 9.00 8.85 150.00 3 0.14 ORDB_028 11.50 10.50 12.50 12.50 11.80 535.01 10 0.49 PRKRb2_028 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.07 84.00 5 0.08 RDGZ_001 9.00 7.00 12.00 12.00 9.32 3,734.12 17 3.40 RDGZ_007 7.00 7.00 12.00 12.00 11.93 1,880.03 8 1.71 RDGZ_014 8.50 8.50 11.00 10.00 9.66 259.02 4 0.24 RDGZ_028 9.00 9.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 588.04 5 0.54 RGBRb3_014 8.00 25.00 1 0.02 RGBRb4_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 50.00 2 0.05 RGBRb4_028 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.19 116.00 2 0.11 ROSA_001 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 116.00 2 0.11 TEBN_007 9.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.36 390.01 3 0.36 TEBN_014 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 400.01 2 0.36 TEBN_030 10.00 156.00 1 0.14 TEBNp_001 7.00 7.00 13.00 11.00 8.92 2,268.02 12 2.07 TEBNp_030 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 400.00 2 0.36 TSBN_030 7.50 7.50 11.50 11.50 11.14 550.00 2 0.50 UTMK_030 12.00 11.00 12.00 11.00 11.45 3,346.10 7 3.05 VITAb4_030 11.00 50.00 1 0.05 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ИТОГО 109,704.4 547 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.3% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ 0 122.40 4 3.46 1 8.00 7.00 9.75 9.50 7.76 1,028.11 5 29.02 2 7.00 5.01 25.63 25.42 15.86 418.40 7 11.81 3 9.00 3.33 20.60 3.33 16.25 370.53 4 10.46 4 8.00 6.50 10.32 8.00 8.10 288.98 9 8.16 5 9.75 46.90 1 1.32 6 9.91 9.91 9.91 9.91 9.91 106.23 2 3.00 7 10.00 20.00 1 0.56 8 9.88 9.88 10.00 10.00 9.90 113.90 2 3.22 10 8.68 56.00 1 1.58 14 5.50 250.00 1 7.06 15 5.50 250.00 1 7.06 30 5.50 250.00 1 7.06 33 9.50 45.00 1 1.27 34 12.00 1.50 12.00 10.31 8.92 101.79 31 2.87 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ TOTAL 3,542.3 75 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------- [2007-09-17]