ANALYSIS: In June 2007 the sterilization of the Kazakhstan market trough sales of dollars by Natsbank on KASE has lead to the rise of repo rates and the record level of deals in that sector

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 1o, 07/ - In June 2007, at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 5, 645 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,536.1 bn. or USD20,783.4 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 59.3% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in May 2007 - 65.4%). The given figure is the greatest month turnover of repo operations on KASE since the whole history of stock exchange existence. The previous record had been registered in April of the current year when the volume of the operations had achieved KZT2,167.1 bn. or USD17,766.6 m. Compared to May 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT582.8 bn. ($4,541.7 m.) or by 29.8% (by 28.0% in dollars). Relative to June 2006 the volume of transactions increased by KZT1, 520.5 bn. ($12,294.9 m.) or 2.5 times (2.4 times in dollars). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals on Kazakhstan market in May on comparable operations totaled 99.4%, in May 2007 the given indicator made 100.0%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in May was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 83.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT2,127.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 75.7% (KZT1,919.2 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 8.2% (KZT208.3 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 16.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT408.5 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.9% (KZT24.0 bn.), deals in CS - 15.2% (KZT384.5 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in May 2007 was as follows: autorepo - 92.3% (GS - 79.6%; CS - 12.7%); repo by nego method - 7.7% (GS - 0.1%; CS - 7.6%). The given data show that the repo market became considerably more active in June with the existing changes in the structure of traded instruments turnover. As the main cause of the situation, the analysts of IRBIS tend to point out the particular behavior of the National Bank on the currency floor of KASE. While the demand for US dollars by the second tier banks was high, the National Bank has preferred to fulfill this demand against the increase of USD rates. That resulted in an increased interest for tenge by the market subjects, especially during the period of budget payments. The influence of the given factor has lead to the rise of repo operations volume and to the increase in the value of short tenge (only TONIA index increased from annual 2.97% to annual 4.65%, in June). The increased activeness on the stocks' market, which was triggered by several factors, has also affected the repo market in the analyzed month. As it was shown above, the rate of direct repo operations with GS increased significantly. The results of analysis by the specialists of IRBIS allows connecting this trend with the intention of Alyance Bank JSC to run SPO of their stocks in the form of GDR on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The sum of direct repo with common shares of the given bank on KASE is KZT125,131.4 m. (on opening operations) in June and ideally correlates with the volume of buy-sell deals with these stocks on KASE. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in June 2007 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (15.2% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 75.7% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Num- Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, ber Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_000 4.99 579.0 1 0.06 KZT_001 2.00 0.50 12.00 8.00 4.64 702,074.2 1,346 71.19 KZT_002 2.10 1.80 7.00 7.00 5.06 89,214.0 91 9.05 KZT_003 5.00 3.00 9.70 3.00 4.01 59,766.0 49 6.06 KZT_007 4.50 4.50 9.00 8.00 7.97 103,476.0 158 10.49 KZT_014 5.00 5.00 8.50 7.00 6.53 18,705.0 38 1.90 KZT_028 5.50 5.50 9.00 8.00 7.90 12,425.0 34 1.26 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ TOTAL 986,239.3 1,717 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 8.2% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_030 7.00 1.0 1 0.001 ASBNb3_003 6.00 62.0 1 0.06 ASBNb3_007 6.70 6.70 7.20 7.00 6.96 363.0 6 0.34 ASBNb4_007 6.70 6.70 7.20 7.20 6.95 250.0 2 0.23 ASFI_030 10.00 9.00 10.00 9.50 9.33 1,007.0 7 0.94 ASFIb5_007 6.50 6.00 8.50 6.00 8.21 288.0 4 0.27 ASFIb5_014 7.50 6.50 9.00 9.00 7.80 821.0 5 0.77 ASFIb7_001 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 3.69 483.0 2 0.45 ASFIb7_003 6.00 58.0 1 0.05 ASFIb7_007 6.70 50.0 1 0.05 ASFIb7_014 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 1,370.0 3 1.29 ASFIp_014 7.10 7.10 7.10 7.10 7.10 6,197.0 4 5.81 ATFB_028 8.00 59.0 1 0.06 ATFBb4_001 6.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.70 660.0 2 0.62 ATFBb4_002 8.50 7.00 8.50 7.00 7.37 1,220.0 3 1.14 ATFBb4_014 7.00 7.00 7.20 7.20 7.06 665.0 3 0.62 ATFBb5_028 9.50 400.0 1 0.38 ATFBb6_007 7.00 6.50 8.00 8.00 6.86 281.0 4 0.26 ATFBb6_014 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.65 455.0 4 0.43 ATFBb6_028 9.50 120.0 1 0.11 ATFBb6_090 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 140.0 4 0.13 ATFBp8_001 5.00 5.00 7.00 7.00 5.22 785.0 4 0.74 ATFBp8_007 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 85.0 3 0.08 BTAIb10028 8.00 8.00 8.30 8.30 8.17 1,773.0 3 1.66 BTAIb5_014 7.00 7.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 318.0 2 0.30 BTAIb7_007 7.50 420.0 1 0.39 BTAIb7_030 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 359.0 2 0.34 BTAS_001 4.00 3.50 8.30 8.30 5.42 5,830.7 19 5.47 BTAS_007 6.50 5.00 8.00 6.50 6.44 3,270.4 31 3.07 BTAS_030 7.00 7.00 15.00 8.50 9.96 24,415.4 63 22.91 BTAS_090 12.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 11.82 5,145.8 17 4.83 BTASb3_014 8.50 200.0 1 0.19 BTASb4_014 7.00 7.00 8.50 8.50 8.35 390.0 3 0.37 BTASb5_007 6.00 6.00 8.75 8.50 8.08 1,573.0 7 1.48 BTASb7_001 7.00 3.00 7.00 3.00 6.97 604.0 3 0.57 BTASb7_007 5.00 5.00 8.00 8.00 7.52 325.0 4 0.30 BTASb7_030 8.30 7.00 15.00 15.00 12.72 1,457.0 11 1.37 CCBN_001 4.50 4.50 6.00 6.00 5.74 546.0 4 0.51 CCBN_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 30.0 2 0.03 CCBN_030 7.50 7.00 7.50 7.00 7.10 251.0 2 0.24 CCBN_090 9.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 11.80 3,696.0 6 3.47 CSBNb4_007 6.30 6.30 7.10 7.00 6.76 590.1 9 0.55 CSBNb5_007 7.10 190.0 1 0.18 CSBNb6_003 6.00 100.0 1 0.09 DNBN_028 11.50 11.00 11.50 11.50 11.37 387.0 8 0.36 EUBNb3_001 6.00 5.50 6.00 5.50 5.64 273.0 3 0.26 EUBNb3_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 19.0 2 0.02 EUBNb3_014 7.00 7.00 9.00 9.00 7.64 1,690.0 9 1.59 GLOTb2_028 9.50 8.50 9.50 9.50 9.37 349.0 4 0.33 HSBK_030 8.50 1.0 1 0.001 KASTb1_028 9.50 1,600.0 1 1.50 KKGB_028 8.00 7.00 8.50 7.00 7.76 206.0 4 0.19 KKGBb2_014 7.20 295.1 1 0.28 KKGBb4_014 7.00 105.0 1 0.10 KKGBp_001 5.50 3.50 7.00 7.00 5.59 655.0 5 0.61 KKGBp_007 6.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 3.28 809.0 5 0.76 KKGBp_014 6.50 3.00 7.20 7.20 5.14 372.0 7 0.35 KKGBp_028 3.00 3.00 8.00 7.00 3.18 2,063.0 13 1.94 KZTC_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,400.0 7 1.31 KZTC_028 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,974.0 9 1.85 KZTCb1_001 4.50 4.50 6.00 6.00 5.25 74.0 2 0.07 KZTK_003 5.25 3.00 5.25 3.00 3.02 8,479.1 9 7.95 KZTK_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 300.0 2 0.28 KZTK_014 3.00 53.0 1 0.05 KZTK_028 8.00 7.00 8.50 7.00 7.51 1,656.2 14 1.55 NFBN_028 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 7.40 414.0 3 0.39 NRBNb2_028 9.00 430.0 1 0.40 NRBNb4_007 8.50 200.0 1 0.19 NRBNb5_001 4.00 4.00 6.00 6.00 5.21 505.0 2 0.47 NRBNb5_007 10.00 7.20 10.00 7.20 7.59 1,719.0 3 1.61 ORDB_007 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 300.0 3 0.28 ORDB_028 11.50 11.00 11.50 11.00 11.16 1,354.0 18 1.27 ORDB_090 8.00 120.0 1 0.11 PDES_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 500.0 2 0.47 PRKRb2_028 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.31 2,258.0 2 2.12 RDGZ_001 6.00 5.00 7.50 5.00 6.69 710.0 6 0.67 RDGZ_007 6.00 6.00 8.50 6.00 7.61 590.0 11 0.55 RDGZ_014 6.50 6.50 9.00 9.00 8.09 594.0 9 0.56 RDGZ_028 7.00 7.00 9.30 7.00 7.26 81.0 3 0.08 RGBRb3_028 8.00 8.00 8.50 8.50 8.25 102.0 3 0.10 RGBRb4_014 7.70 26.0 1 0.02 RGBRb4_028 8.50 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.77 493.0 10 0.46 ROSA_001 6.00 120.0 1 0.11 ROSA_003 10.00 70.0 1 0.07 TEBN_014 8.50 27.0 1 0.03 TEBNp_007 8.50 8.50 9.92 8.50 8.59 220.0 10 0.21 TEBNp_014 8.50 8.20 8.50 8.20 8.22 343.0 3 0.32 TEBNp_030 9.50 8.00 9.50 8.00 8.43 350.0 4 0.33 TSBN_030 7.00 7.00 10.00 10.00 8.04 101.0 3 0.09 UTMK_030 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 4,896.1 10 4.59 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 106,588.2 479 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.9% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ 1 5.00 5.00 7.00 7.00 6.50 400.0 2 1.71 3 5.02 3.00 7.50 6.00 3.17 10,497.2 15 45.00 4 3.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 3.03 10,021.0 7 42.96 7 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 520.0 3 2.23 14 5.99 100.0 1 0.43 33 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 280.4 3 1.20 90 3.50 1,506.0 1 6.46 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ TOTAL 23,324.6 32 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------- [2007-07-10]