ANALYSIS: In April 2007 activity of the corporate bonds market decreased significantly due to number of reasons
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, May 15, 07/ - In April 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 312 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT30,169.5 m. or USD247.9 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 41.6% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in March 2007 - 58.8%) and 1.0% of monthly exchange turnover (2.5%).
Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in April and March of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals)
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Month:
------------------- Trend
April March 2007
2007 March compared to
Indicator 2007 Feb 2007
------------------------------------------- --------- --------- -----------
Trades volume, th., USD 247,854.5 533,745.6 -53.6%
Trades volume, m., KZT 30,169.5 66,087.5 -54.3%
including, on offerings, th. USD 15,452.3 2,620.1 +489.8%
including, on offerings, m. KZT 1,897.0 324.3 +484.9%
including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 0 323.1 X
including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 0 40.0 X
Number of deals 312 309 +1.0%
Number of instruments, 90 76 +18.4%
involved in deals
Stake of nego deals (number), % 5.1 4.9 +0.3 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 5.0 0.4 +4.6 pp
Participation of pension assets, % gross 8.0 9.5 -1.41 pp
Participation of physical entities, % gross 14.6 25.8 -11.2 pp
Number of exchange's members, 36 35 +2.9%
who made deals
Market concentration, %* 42.6 67.6 -25.0 pp
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*it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which
are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total
quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE)
The main particularity of the April market of corporate bonds on KASE is the activization of sector of exchange offerings. For the month here were registered 11 deals amounting $15.5 m. on offering of four issues of bonds (KZIKb8, KZIKb10, KZIKb15 and KDTSb1). We remind that in March on KASE were offering bonds of two issues, and in previous four month the given sector remind not active.
As a whole the turnover of sector for the month decreased more than for half, despite the significant increase of number of instruments, involved into deals. On the contrary to previous years, the increase of supply of new securities on primary market do not provide the growth of liquidity of bonds on secondary market. The offerings are passing very hard. Investors do not want to purchase low profitable securities, and issuers yet are not ready to go to compromise. As the result the specialized exchange trades on offering of liabilities are passing with low supply, and actual volumes of offering as a rule are far from planned even with satisfaction of all submitted bids.
On the secondary market of KASE the corporate bonds are still low liquid. In average fro the month on instrument here are making three four deals, while on shares' market - about thirty.
Here is one more factor, the action of which did not promote the growth of volume of deals with debt liabilities. In the analyzed month the participants of financial market of Kazakhstan had the increased need in tenge, caused by budget payments by results of the quarter and firming of annual bonuses.
The price background of exchange market of corporate bonds in April is characterized by he next statistics.
In the analyzed month out of 90 bonds denominations, involved in deals at the secondary market, 54 denominations were traded lower than the nominal value; 35 were traded with premium. On ORDKb1 the only deal was conducted by nominal. KKGBb2 looked the most overpurchased (their weighted average net price for the month totaled 120.08%, which is caused by subject factor - special algorithm of maturity of these bonds, on which only now had paid the attention some traders and KASE), the most oversold were- BTAIb11 (85.02%). In March deals at the secondary market were carried out with bonds of 76 denominations, securities of 43 denominations were traded with discount, 32 - with premium, 1 security - at face value. KRZHb1 looked most overpurchased (118.42%), most oversold - ASFIb11 (90.50%).
The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in April totaled 99.77%, in February - 96.98%.
In March on concluded deals the yield to maturity for a buyer of 54 corporate bonds increased, of 31 decreased. There was nothing to compare with the yield of five securities. In March the corresponding indicators are 36, 29 and 11.
The given data mean that the market of corporate bonds is seriously mood on growth of yield. It seems logic on the background of toughening of monetary-credit policy of National Bank and requirements o regulators to the main participants of corporate bonds market -second tier banks.
Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in April, are given below.
Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in April 2007
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Bonds: Issuers:
Category of ------------ Instruments ------------
admission number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 192 +8 192 +8 61 +1
B 21 0 21 0 21 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 213 +8 213 +8 82 +2
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 41 +14 41 +14 12 +3
A+B+C 213 +8 254 +22 82 +2
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Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with.
Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in April 2007
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Market.
value of Index Volume of Volume of
debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals,
Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT
----------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
March 30,07 13,178.7 7.47 206.57 130.89 90,026.5 11,148.9
April 2,07 13,168.0 7.91 203.93 129.09 9,193.7 1,133.9
April 3,07 13,286.2 7.89 204.13 129.21 1,984.1 245.1
April 4,07 13,285.4 7.90 204.06 129.14 294.0 36.3
April 5,07 13,298.0 7.53 206.54 130.70 12,680.2 1,564.4
April 6,07 13,145.4 8.06 203.43 128.63 27,151.6 3,352.1
April 9,07 13,163.3 7.92 204.57 129.40 7,225.6 889.0
April 10,07 13,166.3 7.93 204.70 129.26 9,511.4 1,168.6
April 11,07 13,194.1 7.94 204.58 129.26 2,681.2 328.2
April 12,07 13,364.8 7.52 207.30 131.08 16,018.3 1,955.7
April 13,07 13,655.9 7.94 204.92 129.43 12,927.3 1,574.5
April 16,07 13,660.4 7.93 205.44 129.51 19,070.5 2,322.8
April 17,07 13,629.5 7.93 205.12 129.46 5,808.4 708.7
April 18,07 13,614.1 7.94 205.26 129.53 8,841.9 1,080.9
April 19,07 13,639.2 7.95 205.18 129.44 27.8 3.4
April 20,07 13,685.4 7.95 205.39 129.55 12,529.1 1,516.9
April 23,07 13,692.5 7.95 205.50 129.55 6,128.1 741.0
April 24,07 13,685.0 7.58 207.77 131.06 39,346.6 4,762.9
April 25,07 13,696.9 7.52 208.44 131.53 3,089.3 373.5
April 26,07 13,581.3 7.93 205.87 129.74 12,876.0 1,553.9
April 27,07 13,612.7 7.98 205.58 129.52 35,190.1 4,223.5
April 30,07 13,615.9 7.97 205.89 129.66 5,279.5 634.1
----------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
Trend +437.2 +0.5 -0.7 -1.2
,% +3.32 +6.64 -0.33 -0.95
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Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in April 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals)
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Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR:
--------------------------------------
on for last
Code the last deal: 365 days Volume
of bond -------------- ----------- of deals, Number
on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals
--------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- --------
ASAVb1 9.80 9.80 9.80 0 9.80 9.80 141.6 1
ASBNb1 10.85 10.85 10.85 -0.65 9.00 12.00 28.8 5
ASBNb3 10.15 10.15 10.15 +1.17 7.50 11.80 19.5 2
ASBNb5 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 15.8 1
ASBNb6 9.27 9.27 9.27 -0.03 8.49 9.53 524.7 1
ASBNb7 9.01 9.01 9.01 +0.03 8.50 9.01 10,026.4 2
ASBNb8 9.55 9.55 9.55 +0.04 9.51 9.70 13,603.3 2
ASFIb10 9.09 9.09 9.09 +1.09 8.00 9.09 2,351.4 1
ASFIb11 9.09 9.09 9.09 +0.09 9.00 9.09 1,648.2 1
ASFIb3 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.10 8.60 251.4 1
ASFIb4 11.30 11.30 11.30 9.39 11.30 12.0 2
ASFIb5 9.00 11.50 9.51 -0.09 8.83 11.50 1,142.1 11
ASFIb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.50 11.94 97.6 2
ASFIb7 9.60 11.00 9.60 -0.79 8.50 11.00 473.0 6
ATFBb3 8.70 8.70 8.70 +0.20 6.10 8.70 7.3 1
ATFBb5 9.17 9.26 9.26 +0.11 7.55 9.28 1,633.6 3
ATFBb6 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 8.50 2,030.0 4
BTAIb1 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 10.00 299.4 2
BTAIb10 7.99 7.99 7.99 -0.51 6.99 8.50 10,545.9 2
BTAIb11 7.56 8.94 8.94 +1.39 7.56 8.94 11,072.6 4
BTAIb13 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 74.6 1
BTAIb7 9.97 9.97 9.97 0 9.50 10.00 3,215.7 12
BTASb1 10.50 11.00 11.00 0 6.50 11.50 185.3 3
BTASb3 9.50 10.91 9.50 7.50 10.91 845.1 5
BTASb4 10.68 11.10 11.07 +3.37 7.00 11.10 4,994.5 8
BTASb5 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.40 8.50 22,422.9 3
BTASb7 7.00 8.42 8.00 +1.00 6.85 8.60 41,391.9 10
BTTRb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 +1.00 8.00 9.00 4,564.7 1
CCBNb10 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 7.89 9.00 709.7 1
CCBNb14 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 8.50 445.6 2
CCBNb7 9.10 9.10 9.10 7.00 9.40 0.9 1
CSBNb4 9.80 9.80 9.80 8.75 9.87 8.4 1
CSBNb6 9.43 10.75 10.50 +0.25 8.50 10.75 4,596.0 4
DNTLb1 12.00 12.30 12.00 -0.30 12.00 12.30 10.3 2
EUBNb3 8.50 9.70 9.30 +1.10 8.00 9.70 3,785.0 5
EXBNb1 9.25 9.25 9.25 -0.05 9.25 9.70 4,096.9 1
FRMPb1 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92 7.45 61.3 1
GLOTb1 9.80 13.78 9.80 -0.20 9.00 13.78 3,330.7 6
HSBKb 11.55 12.50 11.55 -0.95 8.30 12.50 102.6 3
HSBKb3 8.80 8.80 8.80 0 7.16 8.80 1.7 1
KAFIb1 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 5,945.0 1
KASSb1 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.80 9.50 782.4 5
KASTb2 10.50 10.70 10.70 0 8.40 10.70 158.4 2
KATRb1 11.50 12.50 11.50 0 10.00 13.00 1,292.5 11
KAZIb1 10.98 10.98 10.98 -0.02 10.00 11.13 729.1 1
KAZIb2 10.30 10.50 10.30 +0.01 10.10 10.50 5,999.0 6
KKAGb1 11.80 11.80 11.80 10.71 12.30 164.4 1
KKAGb3 10.50 10.50 10.50 +0.20 9.20 10.50 2,236.2 2
KKGBb2 9.00 14.04 9.00 +2.50 5.00 14.04 1,729.2 24
KKGBb4 8.50 9.00 9.00 +1.00 6.00 9.00 5,555.7 7
KONDb1 7.86 8.02 8.02 +0.26 7.76 10.20 3,357.3 2
KSMKb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 2,343.7 1
KZALb1 12.30 12.30 12.30 +1.90 9.32 12.30 2.2 1
KZASb2 8.70 8.90 8.70 0 8.00 8.90 68.6 3
KZIKb2 8.60 8.60 8.60 6.00 8.60 4.4 1
KZIKb4 8.37 8.37 8.37 6.90 8.37 8.2 1
KZIKb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 0 5.00 7.35 15.1 1
KZIKb8 7.60 8.80 8.80 +1.10 7.60 8.80 8,312.6 3
KZNHb2 10.70 11.00 10.70 +0.85 9.50 13.50 157.6 8
KZPSb1 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 8.90 2.4 1
MREKb3 8.50 8.97 8.50 -0.40 8.50 9.50 2,282.3 3
NFBNb1 10.17 10.65 10.17 -0.48 10.00 11.77 2,866.7 3
NRBNb2 9.80 12.50 12.50 +2.70 7.99 13.00 104.9 7
NRBNb4 8.33 9.30 9.30 +1.10 7.80 9.30 1,495.7 6
NRBNb5 8.90 8.90 8.90 +0.24 8.30 9.10 15.7 1
ORDBb2 11.50 12.07 11.70 -0.10 10.00 13.50 3,590.0 7
ORDKb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 12.00 13.00 991.3 1
PRKRb2 8.00 8.50 8.00 7.71 8.50 218.4 2
RESCb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 2,576.3 1
RGBRb3 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.00 8.50 14.2 1
RGBRb4 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 1,962.9 1
ROSAb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 -1.00 8.00 14.00 31.7 3
TEBNb11 8.85 8.85 8.85 8.50 8.85 4,859.9 1
TEBNb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 13.50 16.00 3.8 1
TEBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 128.4 2
TSBNb1 8.41 10.25 8.41 8.41 10.25 2,842.2 5
TSBNb4 8.51 9.00 9.00 +0.50 8.50 10.20 717.5 3
TSBNb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 10.20 8.8 1
TSNAb1 11.20 11.20 11.20 +0.50 10.70 11.20 9.3 1
TSSMb1 9.27 9.64 9.60 +0.30 8.80 10.44 177.0 6
TXBNb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 +0.20 8.70 11.00 14.9 1
TXBNb3 8.50 10.54 9.00 8.50 10.54 1,723.4 4
UKPFb1 12.00 13.50 13.50 +0.08 9.99 13.50 214.9 6
US_MER_e1 7.32 7.44 7.32 7.32 8.74 25.6 3
VITAb4 10.00 11.40 11.40 8.80 11.80 2,889.2 5
VITAb5 9.40 11.40 11.40 9.12 11.40 675.7 3
--------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- --------
86 220,072.4 285
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Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - March 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at see more
[2007-05-15]