ANALYSIS: As of May 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,410.3 bn. or $11,750.2m.
/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, Andrey Tsalyuk, May 8, 07/ - As of May1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,410.3 bn., or $11,750.2 m. at the rate of KZT120.02 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was registered for the period from February 2007 to April 2007, on MEUJKAM - from May 2006 to April 2007.
Within April 1 - 30 of 2007 the total debt (taking into account changes of the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT34.4 bn. (-2.4%), in dollar equivalent increased by 85.0 m. (+0.7%). Similar indicators of debt change in March of 2007 were plus KZT13.2 bn. (+0.9%) or $94.7 m. (+0.8%).
Following table contains detailed information.
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Amount and structure of debt
------------------------------ Change
as of for the
*Currency of April 30, 07 as of period
------------- ------------------ March 31, 0 --------------
Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT %
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
National Bank KZT KZT 801.276 56.8 847.589 -46,313.3 -5.5
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
Ministry of Finance 604.853 42.9 592.771 +12,081.9 +2.0
incl. face value 450.190 31.9 441.327 +8,863.0 +2.0
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 408.183 28.9 397.983 +10,200.0 +2.6
also, euronotes USD USD 42.007 3.0 43.344 -1,337.0 -3.1
incl. servicing 154.662 11.0 151.443 +3,218.9 +2.1
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 152.326 10.8 149.032 +3,293.3 +2.2
also, euronotes USD USD 2.337 0.2 2.411 -74.4 -3.1
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
Municipals USD KZT 4.129 0.3 4.260 -131.4 -3.1
incl. face value USD KZT 3.741 0.3 3.860 -119.1 -3.1
incl. servicing USD KZT 0.388 0.03 0.400 -12.4 -3.1
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.096 0.1 1.131 -34.9 -3.1
also, face value USD KZT 1.051 0.1 1.084 -33.5 -3.1
also, servicing USD KZT 0.045 0.003 0.046 -1.4 -3.1
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
incl. Atyrau
region akimat USD KZT 3.033 0.2 3.130 -96.5 -3.1
also, face value USD KZT 2.690 0.2 2.775 -85.6 -3.1
also, servicing USD KZT 0.343 0.02 0.354 -10.9 -3.1
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
TOTAL 1,410.258 100.0 1,444.620 -34,362.8 -2.4
incl. face value 1,255.207 89.0 1,292.777 -37,569.4 -2.9
incl. servicing 155.050 11.0 151.844 +3,206.6 +2.1
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 1,365.914 96.9 1,398.865 -32,951.4 -2.4
also, face value KZT KZT 1,213.200 86.0 1,249.433 -36,232.4 -2.9
also, servicing KZT KZT 152.714 10.8 149.433 +3,281.0 +2.2
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----
incl. external debt USD USD 44.344 3.1 45.755 -1,411.4 -3.1
also, face value USD USD 42.007 3.0 43.344 -1,337.0 -3.1
also, servicing USD USD 2.337 0.2 2.411 -74.4 -3.1
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*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
Equivalents as of April 30, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT120.02 per a dollar, as of March 31, 07 - at KZT123.84. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.
Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows.
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Amount and structure of debt
------------------------------ Change
as of for the
*Currency of April 30, 07 as of period
------------- ----------------- March 31, 07 ---------------
Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
National Bank KZT KZT 6,676.2 56.8 6,844.2 -168,041.5 -2.5
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
Ministry of Finance 5,039.6 42.9 4,786.6 +253,013.7 +5.3
incl. face value 3,751.0 31.9 3,563.7 +187,271.2 +5.3
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 3,401.0 28.9 3,213.7 +187,271.2 +5.8
also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 3.0 350.0 0 0
incl. servicing 1,288.6 11.0 1,222.9 +65,742.5 +5.4
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 1,269.2 10.8 1,203.4 +65,742.5 +5.5
also, euronotes USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
Municipals USD KZT 34.40 0.3 34.40 0 0
incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.3 31.2 0 0
incl. servicing USD KZT 3.2 0.03 3.2 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 9.1 0.1 9.1 0 0
also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 8.8 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 0.373 0.003 0.373 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
incl. Atyrau
region akimat USD KZT 25.3 0.2 25.3 0 0
also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.2 22.4 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 2.9 0.02 2.9 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
TOTAL 11,750.2 100.0 11,665.2 +84,972.2 +0.7
incl. face value 10,458.3 89.0 10,439.1 +19,229.7 +0.2
incl. servicing 1,291.9 11.0 1,226.1 +65,742.5 +5.4
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 11,380.7 96.9 11,295.7 +84,972.2 +0.8
also, face value KZT KZT 10,108.3 86.0 10,089.1 +19,229.7 +0.2
also, servicing KZT KZT 1,272.4 10.8 1,206.7 +65,742.5 +5.4
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
incl. external debt USD USD 369.5 3.1 369.5 0 0
also, face value USD USD 350.0 3.0 350.0 0 0
also, servicing USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0
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*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in April 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT389,321.1 m. (in March 2006 - KZT837,485.7 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT439,032.9 (KZT838,139.9 m.). Thus net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT49,711.6 m. Corresponding index in March was minus KZT654.2 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed).
In April the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT10,181.8 m. (in March - KZT4,531.0 m.) and paid coupons on its bonds for a total of KZT1,236.4 m. (in March - KZT2,226.9 m.). April net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT8,945.4 m. (in March - minus KZT4,465.4 m.).
Total April net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT40,766.2 m. Similar indicator of March - plus KZT1,650.0 m.
Given data show that the man "initiator" of forming of the negative balance of net-borrowing in April was National bank. It had "added" money to the market. The sudden decrease of emission activity of regulator in April do not looks logic after recent promise to reduce volume of notes in circulation to KZT2 tr. National bank explained this decrease by more active borrowing of money on deposits market. However the behavior of indicators of money market - TONIA and KazPrime-3M - in April says that the market periodically had felt the sharp deficit of tenge on the background of quarter budget payments and payment of bonuses by results of this year. By opinion of analysts of IRBIS just because of this reason with announced volume at KZT200.0 m. while offering of notes on April 20 the demand did not exceed 6.1% to plan, on April 21 - 9.2%.
Problems with demand in April had also the Ministry of finance, but of other type. While offering of MEKAM the price parameters of submitted bids made Ministry of finance to go on hard cut-off. As the result the budget received in analyzed moth only 52.2% from planed volume of money.
Agency IRBIS draws attention of subscribers and mass media that the data given below are not official statistics and received by result of analysis of information, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty).
[2007-05-08]