ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in March 2007 demonstrated moderate optimism and stayed at the achieved price levels

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, April 16, 07/ - In March 2007 1,351 deals were registered in shares in all sectors , including deals, made on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT46,348.7 m. or $374.0 m. according to the current rate on dates, on which deals were made. The specified amount is 41.2% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in February - 39.7%) and 1.8% of the entire month exchange turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in March and February of year 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ------------------- Trend March Feb March 2007 to Indicator 2007 2007 Feb 2007 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ------------- Trades volume, th. USD 374,000.6 212,625.3 +75.9% Trades volume, m KZT 46,348.7 26,536.5 +74.7% Including on offerings, th. USD 0 0 Х including on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 Х including on STF RFCA, th. USD 39,896.3 0 Х including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 4,944.0 0 Х Number of deals 1,351 1,439 -6.1% Number of instruments, involved in deals 46 44 +4.5% Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.9 5.1 -3.3 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 3.1 29.7 -26.6 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 13.6 8.0 +5.6 pp Part of physical entities, % on gross 23.2 40.0 -16.8 pp Number of exchange's members, 38 36 +5.6% who made deals Market concentration, %* 47.2 30.8 +16.4 pp -------------------------------------------------------------------------- * it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) The particularity of March exchange market of shares is unexampled for this segment reduction of the share of direct deals. It was caused, first of all, by the effect of amendments, in compliance with which since March 1 spreads for obligatory quotations of the market makers of ten most marketable shares have been narrowed with simultaneous withdrawal of Frankfurt auction, while performing trades with them. Reduction of spreads does not make for performing nego deals by it. However, withdrawal of 'Frankfurt' on most marketable share instruments allowed brokers, who agreed preliminary, to conduct deals in March, as the saying is, "it's a child's play" (that is, submitting into KASE trade system counter bids at the same moment). The deal, made in that way, looked like market one, but, in point of fact, it is not that one. Commenting on above-given table, it is notable that growth of partaking of pension assets in the analyzed month happened mainly because of deals, performed in frameworks of selling by Kazakhstan holding for state assets management Samruk JSC (Astana) the part of assets, owned by Kazakhtelecom JSC (Astana), to Kazakhstan accumulative pension funds. This undertaking took place on STF RFCA on March 21. In March, together with volumes of deals, the concentration of debt instruments exchange market grew seriously. 31% sectors turnover falls on BTAS, and five instruments controlled 73.3% turnover. By results of the month, the growth of weighted average day prices was shown by 52% shares denominations, involved in deals; fall - by 37%, the stable rate - by 4%; there was nothing to compare the price of 7% securities (ASFIp, RTCP and aKZTK). Corresponding indicators of February were 48%, 43%, 9% and 0%. Positive change of shares prices in March was viewed in the range of 0.003% (RDGZ) up to 303.9% (UTMKp), negative change - from 0.001% (CSBNp) up to 30.0% (MMGZp). KASE_Shares index (see tables below) in March was stable. During the whole month the index formed the horizontal channel, working out so-called the flat correction after achieving the historical maximum in middle February. Axis of working fluctuations of the index was the stage at 2560. Growth of the indicator's value for the month reached the result of one such positive rises and falls. The main result of March on Kazakhstan exchange share market is - stability. Other markets, to greater extent integrated into world economic community, reacted more expressively on Chinese collapse. However, our market was balanced enough. None of 10 most marketable markets on KASE marked with annual minimum in price. Within the same period KZTKp and HSBK were characterized with maximun. Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in March 2007, are given below. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades closing on March 30 2007 (basis actual/365) ----------------------------------------------------- Change: ------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------ ------ For previous 30 days +3.3 +40.3 Since the beginning of the current year +9.5 +39.2 (since January 1, 07) For the last 365 days (year) +53.5 +53.5 For year 2006 +274.1 +274.1 Since the beginning of year 2005 +309.5 +249.4 ----------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in March of year 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of pitalization, Index deals, deals, Number of Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT deals -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- 28.02.07 63,524.7 2,562.05 6,655.6 826.7 114 01.03.07 62,732.0 2,601.37 18,581.0 2,319.1 100 02.03.07 62,422.0 2,521.01 9,498.2 1,189.3 73 05.03.07 62,577.4 2,539.55 2,601.8 326.1 49 06.03.07 62,693.5 2,517.60 13,071.2 1,634.6 74 07.03.07 63,573.1 2,539.60 7,213.7 897.1 87 11.03.07 64,436.3 2,564.99 3,804.9 470.1 37 12.03.07 64,960.2 2,602.08 19,698.3 2,426.2 80 13.03.07 65,132.2 2,600.73 20,001.9 2,467.0 60 14.03.07 64,361.3 2,577.39 9,918.3 1,226.1 96 15.03.07 64,520.9 2,587.25 20,200.4 2,505.9 100 16.03.07 64,536.3 2,533.34 17,119.4 2,122.8 58 19.03.07 64,659.4 2,593.75 29,788.5 3,683.9 57 20.03.07 64,004.7 2,553.68 8,719.7 1,078.7 87 21.03.07 63,845.8 2,542.67 43,822.5 5,430.5 73 25.03.07 63,982.6 2,549.06 1,270.8 157.2 32 26.03.07 64,139.7 2,555.02 10,376.9 1,279.6 57 27.03.07 63,765.2 2,542.49 6,753.7 836.0 37 28.03.07 63,540.5 2,547.44 61,136.8 7,578.5 55 29.03.07 63,919.0 2,546.74 12,585.0 1,557.4 45 30.03.07 64,263.8 2,646.91 57,837.4 7,162.6 94 -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +739.1 +84.86 % +1.2 +3.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in March 2007 --------------------------------------------------- Shares: Instruments Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 48 0 48 0 32 0 B 47 0 47 0 38 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 95 0 95 0 69 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 4 0 A+B+N 99 0 99 0 72 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 10 +5 10 +5 7 +3 A+B+C+N 99 0 109 +5 72 0 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE; "А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion. Results of trades in shares on KASE in March 2007 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per share: ----------------------------------------------------------- on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ---------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ----- aKZTK 48,965.00 51,050.00 51,050.00 48,965.00 51,050.00 39,896.3 20 AMGZ 55,200.00 55,200.00 55,200.00 +4.2 48,000.01 130,000.00 10.2 4 ASBN 59,800.00 69,000.00 65,500.00 -3.0 11,100.00 69,000.00 341.8 14 ASBNp1 12,500.00 12,700.00 12,700.00 +1.2 10,000.00 16,900.00 4,530.3 8 ASFI 8,100.00 8,100.00 8,100.00 7,500.00 11,400.00 0.5 1 ASFIp 4,001.00 4,001.00 4,001.00 4,001.00 4,001.00 323.1 1 ATFB 11,000.00 12,050.00 11,160.00 -7.8 5,300.00 15,710.00 1,785.6 42 ATFBp 3,000.00 3,330.00 3,330.00 2,800.00 4,200.00 887.9 4 ATFBp8 1,570.00 1,612.46 1,600.00 +1.9 1,300.00 4,150.00 20,684.5 27 AZNO 10,350.00 10,350.00 10,350.00 +12.5 9,201.00 16,000.00 1,170.9 1 BTAS 135,000.00 152,900.00 149,000.00 +6.4 90,000.00 190,000.00 116,061.7 67 CCBN 1,600.01 1,909.00 1,909.00 +19.3 510.02 2,000.00 60,325.3 150 CHFM 1,305.00 1,305.00 1,305.00 +2.4 600.00 1,305.00 9.1 1 CSBN 4,521.74 4,900.00 4,800.00 -4.0 1,500.00 5,590.00 248.0 9 CSBNp 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 0 500.00 1,000.01 12.2 1 DAMU 1,140.00 1,140.00 1,140.00 +14.0 1,000.00 1,140.00 69.0 1 DNBN 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,400.00 -6.7 1,400.00 4,000.00 26.6 1 EXBN 2,270.00 2,270.00 2,270.00 0 2,000.00 2,750.00 1,255.7 21 GLOT 5,600.00 5,600.00 5,600.00 -1.8 3,750.00 7,500.00 83.5 3 HSBK 660.00 781.00 710.00 +7.4 260.00 781.00 1,418.3 68 HSBKp1 270.00 280.00 270.00 +8.4 173.00 300.00 149.0 7 KIBN 172.50 230.00 205.00 +36.7 150.00 230.00 115.8 11 KKGB 1,250.00 1,430.00 1,290.00 -9.2 250.00 1,800.00 9,311.0 110 KKGBp 191.00 300.00 275.00 +44.7 100.00 600.00 16,077.2 182 KZDK 1,140.00 1,140.00 1,140.00 +14.0 1,000.00 1,140.00 69.0 1 KZTC 15,000.00 17,250.00 17,250.00 +1.5 9,000.00 20,000.00 804.6 25 KZTCp 1,150.00 1,300.00 1,150.00 -28.1 1,150.00 9,000.00 41.0 2 KZTK 46,500.00 52,100.00 52,000.00 +4.0 23,502.00 55,000.00 18,007.0 174 KZTKp 22,000.00 26,000.00 25,200.00 +9.6 8,950.00 26,000.00 5,575.4 96 KZZN 6,100.00 7,500.00 6,600.00 +1.5 4,510.00 18,300.00 563.4 22 MMGZp 7,000.00 7,000.00 7,000.00 7,000.00 19,500.00 7.8 1 NFBN 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 +29.0 1,321.00 4,000.00 1,562.3 3 NRBNp6 27,800.00 27,800.00 27,800.00 22,000.00 40,000.00 12.1 1 ORDB 4,000.00 4,400.00 4,000.00 2,841.85 4,400.00 11,392.3 16 ORDBp 2,095.00 2,299.00 2,100.00 0 2,095.00 2,299.00 1,240.6 24 ORNK 4.50 10.06 10.06 1.00 10.06 0.4 2 PDES 1,000.01 1,001.00 1,001.00 655.00 14,325.00 6,457.2 2 PRIN 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 26.6 1 RDGZ 15,000.00 16,200.00 15,300.00 -1.3 11,260.00 18,399.99 3,210.1 106 RTCP 14,613.00 22,500.00 14,613.00 14,613.00 22,500.00 11,550.8 6 TEBN 5,000.01 5,980.00 5,550.00 +11.2 1,031.00 5,980.00 14,727.5 12 TEBNp 1,114.01 1,315.00 1,250.00 -3.8 1,073.75 1,390.00 10,826.9 46 TSBN 2,750.00 4,550.00 2,990.00 -26.2 1,350.00 4,550.00 1,470.9 24 UTMK 27,000.00 27,000.00 27,000.00 0 16,010.00 38,250.00 57.1 3 UTMKp 9,000.00 15,000.00 15,000.00 100.00 29,000.00 79.0 3 ZERD 3.95 4.50 3.95 +31.7 1.00 4.50 0.1 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ----- 46 362,475.4 1,326 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (February 1 - 28, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of March 30, 07: as of Feb 28, 07: Change: ------------------- ------------------- -------------- Short or po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- abbreviated si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, title of the ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, % company on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points ------------------ --- -------- ------ --- -------- ------ ------- ------ KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 13,325.1 20.7 1 12,993.6 20.9 +331.6 -0.2 Exploration Production 2 8,675.6 13.5 2 8,570.3 13.8 +105.3 -0.3 KazMunayGas Bank TuranAlem 3 6,452.6 10.0 4 5,912.0 9.5 +540.6 +0.5 Kazkommertsbank 4 6,136.8 9.5 3 6,476.2 10.4 -339.4 -0.9 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan 5 5,820.1 9.1 5 5,286.2 8.5 +534.0 +0.5 Kazakhtelecom 6 4,668.5 7.3 6 4,373.4 7.0 +295.2 +0.2 CNPC-Aktobe- 7 3,987.8 6.2 7 3,733.6 6.0 +254.2 +0.2 munaygas Alliance-bank 8 3,234.3 5.0 8 3,228.9 5.2 +5.4 -0.2 ATFBank 9 1,930.0 3.0 9 2,023.6 3.3 -93.7 -0.3 TNC Kazchrome 10 1,711.3 2.7 10 1,668.7 2.7 +42.6 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of March 30, 2006 was $64,263.8 m. There were 95 shares of 69 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2007-04-16]