ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in February 2007 has turned downward, but the correction, to all appearances, will not be deep

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 13, 07/ - In February 2007 1,439 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT26,536.5 m. or $212.6 m. according to the current rate on dates, on which deals were made. The specified amount is 39.7% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in January - 46.1%) and 1.0% of the entire month exchange turnover (0.9%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in February and January of year 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: ------------------- Trend Feb Jan Feb 2007 to Indicator 2007 2007 Jan 2007 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 212,625.3 206,880.8 +2.8% Trades volume, m KZT 26,536.5 26,005.1 +2.0% Including on offerings, th. USD 0 0 0 including on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 0 Number of deals 1,439 1,051 +36.9% Number of instruments, involved in deals 44.0 44.0 0 Stake of nego deals (number), % 5.1 12.7 -7.5 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 29.7 50.6 -20.9 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 8.0 3.5 +4.5 pp Part of physical entities, % on gross 40.0 15.0 +25.0 pp Number of exchange's members, 36 34 +5.9% who made deals Market concentration, %* 30.8 49.8 -18.9 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------ *it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) The particularity of February exchange market of shares is record low stake of nego deals (within last 12 months). As it is viewed from the above given table, in February indicating values made 5.1% in quantitative and 29.7% by volume expression, whereas the peak values are counted for December 2006 - 35.3% and 90.4% respectively. It is obvious that the market in the analyzed month got ready meet innovation on the stock exchange, pursuant to which since March 1 it has been planed to narrow greatly spreads for obligatory quotations of market makers of ten most liquid shares with withdrawal of Frankfurt auction while performing trades with them in parallel. It is noteworthy that physical entities have stirred up on exchange market of share instruments. Compared to the previous month, their stake grew over 2.5 times. February indicator is the second in terms of the amount within last 12 months. The highest activity of physical entities fell on July 2006 (42.8% out of the exchange turnover of shares). In February the growth of number of concluded deals greatly prevailed over the growth of trades volume, consequently the tendency to reduction of average volume of deals emerged, which was described in previous similar piece of analysis. In February average volume of one deal made $147.8 th., having decreased compared to January by 33.2%, which partly confirms the fact of activation of physical persons in the market. In terms of price, if to judge on resulting statistics, shares market born few changes. By results of February the growth of weighted average day prices showed 48% shares denominations, involved in deals, the fall - 43%, the stable rate - 9%. The corresponding indicators of January - 48%, 43% and 7%, the price of TSNAp (2%) had nothing to be compared. Positive change in shares price in February was viewed within the range from 0.08% (CCBN) to 100.3% (ZERD), negative - from 0.01% (ORDBp) to 62.5% (DNBN). Turn out of KASE_Shares index in the analyzed month allows to talk about taking a sweep by the market. Having gained on February 12 the historical maximum (2808), the index confidently broke through the bottom of the upward channel, within which it had been since beginning of November of last year, and tended downward. At the end of the month the market was going down, which was mostly caused by state of affairs on world stock exchange and by partial withdrawal of funds of foreign investors from the local market (especially, this fact was seen well on USD domestic market). However, events of the first ten-day period in March allow to conclude that upcoming correction of prices on shares market will be so deep, as it was in spring time last year. Our brokers speculate upward in the presence of any pleasing conditions and when leading shares of the market fall, the demand for less liquid securities comes out. By beginning of March, prices for main favorites of KASE market looked in all neutrally in respect of prices of the same assets on European stock exchanges (including LSE). Some instruments in this context looked rather oversold (BTAS, HSBK, KKGBp), the other - overpurchased (KZTK, RDGZ). Together with the above-said, it raises the hope that the spring market of shares will be stabilized and will be performed in realm of the flat correction, while preparing for the new growth. Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in February 2007, are given below. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on February 28 2007 (basis actual/365) ----------------------------------------------------- Change: ------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------ ------ For previous 30 days +1.0 +12.7 Since the beginning of the current year +6.0 +37.5 (since January 1, 07) For the last 365 days (year) +129.9 +129.9 For year 2006 +274.1 +274.1 Since the beginning of year 2005 +296.3 +255.7 ----------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in Febuary of year 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- 31.01.07 61,252.9 2,535.63 48,177.4 6,087.7 68 01.02.07 61,763.2 2,501.16 12,496.9 1,576.9 72 02.02.07 63,732.0 2,611.26 11,586.8 1,459.7 100 05.02.07 63,977.1 2,590.16 2,252.7 282.8 42 06.02.07 64,122.2 2,630.57 12,627.8 1,584.2 98 07.02.07 63,651.2 2,603.34 16,819.8 2,111.7 79 08.02.07 64,202.4 2,613.99 20,936.0 2,629.1 68 09.02.07 64,575.4 2,656.40 15,941.4 1,992.5 85 12.02.07 66,904.8 2,808.38 8,691.4 1,082.8 67 13.02.07 67,270.8 2,676.65 4,006.1 497.5 58 14.02.07 68,027.9 2,596.95 14,639.5 1,814.6 60 15.02.07 68,314.1 2,634.39 4,981.3 618.0 42 16.02.07 66,950.7 2,664.80 16,789.8 2,087.3 104 19.02.07 64,621.4 2,663.34 16,990.9 2,114.5 67 20.02.07 64,856.7 2,679.55 7,869.4 980.6 84 21.02.07 65,236.1 2,638.44 4,567.2 569.4 54 22.02.07 65,410.7 2,645.45 10,782.7 1,342.7 85 23.02.07 65,710.9 2,648.73 5,193.5 641.6 65 26.02.07 65,893.0 2,573.82 13,342.7 1,649.3 42 27.02.07 64,837.4 2,590.32 5,453.6 674.7 53 28.02.07 63,524.7 2,562.05 6,655.6 826.7 114 -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +2,271.7 +26.42 % +3.7 +1.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in February 2007 --------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ Instruments ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 48 +3 48 +3 32 +1 B 47 -2 47 -2 38 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 95 +1 95 +1 69 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 4 0 A+B+N 99 +1 99 +1 72 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 5 Х 5 Х 4 Х A+B+C+N 99 +1 104 +6 72 0 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE; "А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion. Results of trades in shares on KASE in February 2007 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: ---------------------------------------------------------- on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ---------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- ALKZ 2,050.00 2,050.00 2,050.00 +2.5 1,956.80 2,600.00 1.9 2 AMGZ 53,000.00 89,999.00 53,000.00 -33.8 43,500.00 130,000.00 115.3 5 ASBN 51,900.00 67,500.00 67,500.00 +35.0 11,100.00 67,500.00 23.2 3 ASBNp1 12,300.00 13,000.00 12,550.00 +0.4 10,000.00 16,900.00 8,839.2 14 ATFB 11,150.00 13,000.00 12,100.00 +8.3 5,300.00 15,710.00 5,664.7 105 ATFBp8 1,565.50 1,612.46 1,570.00 +1.3 1,300.00 4,150.00 14,060.7 45 AZNO 9,201.00 9,201.00 9,201.00 9,201.00 16,000.00 603.7 1 BTAS 115,750.0 150,000.00 140,000.0 +17.9 85,500.00 190,000.00 11,163.0 99 CCBN 1,500.00 1,880.00 1,600.00 -17.9 510.02 2,000.00 30,956.9 83 CHFM 850.00 1,275.00 1,275.00 +41.7 600.00 1,650.00 17.5 2 CSBN 4,500.00 5,000.00 5,000.00 +1.0 1,500.00 5,150.00 292.9 7 CSBNp 1,000.01 1,000.01 1,000.01 420.00 1,000.01 12.1 2 DAMU 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.50 0.4 1 DNBN 1,500.00 3,000.00 1,500.00 -62.5 1,500.00 4,000.00 17.7 2 EXBN 2,200.01 2,400.00 2,270.00 -17.5 2,000.00 2,750.00 236.0 26 GLOT 5,700.00 5,800.00 5,700.00 3,750.00 7,500.00 67.5 3 HSBK 622.00 780.01 661.00 +7.0 260.00 780.01 6,899.2 143 HSBKp 290.00 290.00 290.00 180.00 290.00 23.5 1 HSBKp1 249.19 260.00 249.19 -0.3 171.00 300.00 25.4 2 KIBN 150.00 150.00 150.00 150.00 230.00 0.1 1 KKGB 1,400.00 1,550.00 1,420.00 +1.4 250.00 1,800.00 15,396.3 131 KKGBp 190.00 400.00 190.00 -47.2 100.00 600.00 1,086.6 72 KZCR 29,650.00 29,650.00 29,650.00 1.00 30,000.00 95.8 4 KZDK 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.50 0.4 1 KZTC 14,999.99 18,300.00 16,990.00 -5.6 9,000.00 20,000.00 699.6 49 KZTCp 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 9,000.00 6.4 1 KZTK 45,000.00 55,000.00 50,000.00 +12.4 23,502.00 55,000.00 15,030.5 200 KZTKp 12,600.00 26,000.00 23,000.00 +85.8 8,950.00 26,000.00 5,332.7 140 KZZN 6,500.00 7,500.00 6,500.00 -17.2 4,510.00 18,300.00 191.3 14 NFBN 3,100.00 3,100.00 3,100.00 +54.0 1,321.00 3,100.00 9,040.2 5 NRBN 51,000.00 51,000.00 51,000.00 -3.8 40,500.00 62,250.00 4.1 1 ORDBp 2,099.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 0 2,099.00 2,125.00 576.2 16 RAHT 2,800.00 2,800.00 2,800.00 -6.7 600.00 3,200.00 2.2 1 RDGZ 15,000.00 16,050.00 15,500.00 +4.0 11,260.00 18,399.99 4,932.2 139 ROSA 838.00 838.00 838.00 -2.0 570.01 855.00 0.4 1 TEBN 4,510.00 5,002.50 4,990.00 +6.2 1,031.00 5,002.50 2,342.7 20 TEBNp 1,220.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 0 1,073.75 1,390.00 44.8 2 TMLZ 5,058.02 5,779.50 5,779.50 5,058.02 5,779.50 12,102.9 3 TSBN 3,400.00 4,500.00 4,050.00 +35.0 1,350.00 4,500.00 98.6 11 TSBNp 1,988.00 2,100.00 1,988.00 -5.3 1,000.00 2,200.00 77.2 2 TSNAp 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 0 1,000.00 3,358.00 3,373.2 1 UTMK 27,000.00 27,000.00 27,000.00 0 16,010.00 38,250.00 3.9 1 ZERD 3.00 4.00 3.00 +100.0 0.80 4.50 8.9 3 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- 43 149,468.1 1,365 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (January 1 - 31, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of Feb 28, 07: as of Jan 31, 07: Change: Short or -------------------------- ------------------- --------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- taliza- of the compa- si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, company ti- tion, ti- tion, compa- tion, % on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points ------------------ --- -------- ------------- --- -------- ------ -------- ------ KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 12,993.6 20.9 1 13,059.4 21.3 -65.8 -0.4 Exploration Production 2 8,570.3 13.8 2 8,280.2 13.5 +290.0 +0.3 KazMunayGas Kazkommertsbank 3 6,476.2 10.4 3 6,588.1 10.8 -111.9 -0.3 Bank TuranAlem 4 5,912.0 9.5 5 5,037.9 8.2 +874.1 +1.3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan 5 5,286.2 8.5 6 4,960.3 8.1 +325.9 +0.4 Kazakhtelecom 6 4,373.4 7.0 7 3,886.2 6.3 +487.2 +0.7 CNPC-Aktobe- 7 3,733.6 6.0 4 5,664.1 9.2 -1,930.5 -3.2 munaygas Alliance-bank 8 3,228.9 5.2 8 2,414.1 3.9 +814.9 +1.3 ATFBank 9 2,023.6 3.3 9 1,887.8 3.1 +135.8 +0.2 TNC Kazchrome 10 1,668.7 2.7 12 1,131.3 1.8 +537.4 +0.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of February 28, 2006 was $63,524.7 m. There were 95 shares of 69 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2007-03-13]