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Market and Company News
13.03.2007 21:45

ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in February 2007 has turned downward, but the correction, to all appearances, will not be deep

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 13, 07/ - In February 2007 1,439 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT26,536.5 m. or $212.6 m. according to the current rate on dates, on which deals were made.

The specified amount is 39.7% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in January - 46.1%) and 1.0% of the entire month exchange turnover (0.9%).

Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in February and January of year 2007

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Month:
                                         -------------------       Trend
                                               Feb       Jan Feb 2007 to
Indicator                                     2007      2007    Jan 2007
---------------------------------------- --------- --------- -----------
Trades volume, th. USD                   212,625.3 206,880.8       +2.8%
Trades volume, m KZT                      26,536.5  26,005.1       +2.0%
Including on offerings, th. USD                  0         0           0
including on offerings, m. KZT                   0         0           0
Number of deals                              1,439     1,051      +36.9%
Number of instruments, involved in deals      44.0      44.0           0
Stake of nego deals (number), %                5.1      12.7     -7.5 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), %               29.7      50.6    -20.9 pp
Part of pension assets, % on gross             8.0       3.5     +4.5 pp
Part of physical entities, % on gross         40.0      15.0    +25.0 pp
Number of exchange's members,                   36        34       +5.9%
who made deals
Market concentration, %*                      30.8      49.8    -18.9 pp
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered
 by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share
 denominations, included in traded lists of KASE)

The particularity of February exchange market of shares is record low stake of nego deals (within last 12 months). As it is viewed from the above given table, in February indicating values made 5.1% in quantitative and 29.7% by volume expression, whereas the peak values are counted for December 2006 - 35.3% and 90.4% respectively. It is obvious that the market in the analyzed month got ready meet innovation on the stock exchange, pursuant to which since March 1 it has been planed to narrow greatly spreads for obligatory quotations of market makers of ten most liquid shares with withdrawal of Frankfurt auction while performing trades with them in parallel.

It is noteworthy that physical entities have stirred up on exchange market of share instruments. Compared to the previous month, their stake grew over 2.5 times. February indicator is the second in terms of the amount within last 12 months. The highest activity of physical entities fell on July 2006 (42.8% out of the exchange turnover of shares).

In February the growth of number of concluded deals greatly prevailed over the growth of trades volume, consequently the tendency to reduction of average volume of deals emerged, which was described in previous similar piece of analysis. In February average volume of one deal made $147.8 th., having decreased compared to January by 33.2%, which partly confirms the fact of activation of physical persons in the market.

In terms of price, if to judge on resulting statistics, shares market born few changes. By results of February the growth of weighted average day prices showed 48% shares denominations, involved in deals, the fall - 43%, the stable rate - 9%. The corresponding indicators of January - 48%, 43% and 7%, the price of TSNAp (2%) had nothing to be compared. Positive change in shares price in February was viewed within the range from 0.08% (CCBN) to 100.3% (ZERD), negative - from 0.01% (ORDBp) to 62.5% (DNBN).

Turn out of KASE_Shares index in the analyzed month allows to talk about taking a sweep by the market. Having gained on February 12 the historical maximum (2808), the index confidently broke through the bottom of the upward channel, within which it had been since beginning of November of last year, and tended downward. At the end of the month the market was going down, which was mostly caused by state of affairs on world stock exchange and by partial withdrawal of funds of foreign investors from the local market (especially, this fact was seen well on USD domestic market).

However, events of the first ten-day period in March allow to conclude that upcoming correction of prices on shares market will be so deep, as it was in spring time last year. Our brokers speculate upward in the presence of any pleasing conditions and when leading shares of the market fall, the demand for less liquid securities comes out.

By beginning of March, prices for main favorites of KASE market looked in all neutrally in respect of prices of the same assets on European stock exchanges (including LSE). Some instruments in this context looked rather oversold (BTAS, HSBK, KKGBp), the other - overpurchased (KZTK, RDGZ). Together with the above-said, it raises the hope that the spring market of shares will be stabilized and will be performed in realm of the flat correction, while preparing for the new growth.

Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in February 2007, are given below.

Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on February 28 2007 (basis actual/365)

-----------------------------------------------------
                                              Change:
                                        -------------
Period                                       %  % APR
--------------------------------------- ------ ------
For previous 30 days                      +1.0  +12.7
Since the beginning of the current year   +6.0  +37.5
(since January 1, 07)
For the last 365 days (year)            +129.9 +129.9
For year 2006                           +274.1 +274.1
Since the beginning of year 2005        +296.3 +255.7
-----------------------------------------------------

Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in Febuary of year 2007

----------------------------------------------------------------
            Market ca-             Volume of Volume of Number of
         pitalization,       Index    deals,    deals,     deals
Data            m. USD KASE_Shares   th. USD    m. KZT
-------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- ---------
31.01.07      61,252.9    2,535.63  48,177.4   6,087.7        68
01.02.07      61,763.2    2,501.16  12,496.9   1,576.9        72
02.02.07      63,732.0    2,611.26  11,586.8   1,459.7       100
05.02.07      63,977.1    2,590.16   2,252.7     282.8        42
06.02.07      64,122.2    2,630.57  12,627.8   1,584.2        98
07.02.07      63,651.2    2,603.34  16,819.8   2,111.7        79
08.02.07      64,202.4    2,613.99  20,936.0   2,629.1        68
09.02.07      64,575.4    2,656.40  15,941.4   1,992.5        85
12.02.07      66,904.8    2,808.38   8,691.4   1,082.8        67
13.02.07      67,270.8    2,676.65   4,006.1     497.5        58
14.02.07      68,027.9    2,596.95  14,639.5   1,814.6        60
15.02.07      68,314.1    2,634.39   4,981.3     618.0        42
16.02.07      66,950.7    2,664.80  16,789.8   2,087.3       104
19.02.07      64,621.4    2,663.34  16,990.9   2,114.5        67
20.02.07      64,856.7    2,679.55   7,869.4     980.6        84
21.02.07      65,236.1    2,638.44   4,567.2     569.4        54
22.02.07      65,410.7    2,645.45  10,782.7   1,342.7        85
23.02.07      65,710.9    2,648.73   5,193.5     641.6        65
26.02.07      65,893.0    2,573.82  13,342.7   1,649.3        42
27.02.07      64,837.4    2,590.32   5,453.6     674.7        53
28.02.07      63,524.7    2,562.05   6,655.6     826.7       114
-------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- ---------
Trend         +2,271.7      +26.42
%                 +3.7        +1.0
----------------------------------------------------------------

Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in February 2007

---------------------------------------------------
                   Bonds:                  Issuers:
Category of  ------------  Instruments ------------
admission    number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A                48    +3     48    +3     32    +1
B                47    -2     47    -2     38    -1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B              95    +1     95    +1     69     0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N                 4     0      4     0      4     0
A+B+N            99    +1     99    +1     72     0
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA)      5     Х      5     Х      4     Х
A+B+C+N          99    +1    104    +6     72     0
---------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the
regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE;
"А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE,
including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a
security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with,
which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance
and of payment completion.

Results of trades in shares on KASE in February 2007 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Price, tenge per a share:
       ----------------------------------------------------------
                                on last deal   for last 365 days:    Volume  Num-         
                            ---------------- -------------------- of deals,   ber
Shares                                 trend                            th.   de-
code        min.       max.     price      %      min.       max.       USD   als
------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- -----
ALKZ    2,050.00   2,050.00  2,050.00   +2.5  1,956.80   2,600.00       1.9     2
AMGZ   53,000.00  89,999.00 53,000.00  -33.8 43,500.00 130,000.00     115.3     5
ASBN   51,900.00  67,500.00 67,500.00  +35.0 11,100.00  67,500.00      23.2     3
ASBNp1 12,300.00  13,000.00 12,550.00   +0.4 10,000.00  16,900.00   8,839.2    14
ATFB   11,150.00  13,000.00 12,100.00   +8.3  5,300.00  15,710.00   5,664.7   105
ATFBp8  1,565.50   1,612.46  1,570.00   +1.3  1,300.00   4,150.00  14,060.7    45
AZNO    9,201.00   9,201.00  9,201.00         9,201.00  16,000.00     603.7     1
BTAS   115,750.0 150,000.00 140,000.0  +17.9 85,500.00 190,000.00  11,163.0    99
CCBN    1,500.00   1,880.00  1,600.00  -17.9    510.02   2,000.00  30,956.9    83
CHFM      850.00   1,275.00  1,275.00  +41.7    600.00   1,650.00      17.5     2
CSBN    4,500.00   5,000.00  5,000.00   +1.0  1,500.00   5,150.00     292.9     7
CSBNp   1,000.01   1,000.01  1,000.01           420.00   1,000.01      12.1     2
DAMU    1,000.00   1,000.00  1,000.00         1,000.00   1,000.50       0.4     1
DNBN    1,500.00   3,000.00  1,500.00  -62.5  1,500.00   4,000.00      17.7     2
EXBN    2,200.01   2,400.00  2,270.00  -17.5  2,000.00   2,750.00     236.0    26
GLOT    5,700.00   5,800.00  5,700.00         3,750.00   7,500.00      67.5     3
HSBK      622.00     780.01    661.00   +7.0    260.00     780.01   6,899.2   143
HSBKp     290.00     290.00    290.00           180.00     290.00      23.5     1
HSBKp1    249.19     260.00    249.19   -0.3    171.00     300.00      25.4     2
KIBN      150.00     150.00    150.00           150.00     230.00       0.1     1
KKGB    1,400.00   1,550.00  1,420.00   +1.4    250.00   1,800.00  15,396.3   131
KKGBp     190.00     400.00    190.00  -47.2    100.00     600.00   1,086.6    72
KZCR   29,650.00  29,650.00 29,650.00             1.00  30,000.00      95.8     4
KZDK    1,000.00   1,000.00  1,000.00         1,000.00   1,000.50       0.4     1
KZTC   14,999.99  18,300.00 16,990.00   -5.6  9,000.00  20,000.00     699.6    49
KZTCp   1,600.00   1,600.00  1,600.00         1,600.00   9,000.00       6.4     1
KZTK   45,000.00  55,000.00 50,000.00  +12.4 23,502.00  55,000.00  15,030.5   200
KZTKp  12,600.00  26,000.00 23,000.00  +85.8  8,950.00  26,000.00   5,332.7   140
KZZN    6,500.00   7,500.00  6,500.00  -17.2  4,510.00  18,300.00     191.3    14
NFBN    3,100.00   3,100.00  3,100.00  +54.0  1,321.00   3,100.00   9,040.2     5
NRBN   51,000.00  51,000.00 51,000.00   -3.8 40,500.00  62,250.00       4.1     1
ORDBp   2,099.00   2,100.00  2,100.00      0  2,099.00   2,125.00     576.2    16
RAHT    2,800.00   2,800.00  2,800.00   -6.7    600.00   3,200.00       2.2     1
RDGZ   15,000.00  16,050.00 15,500.00   +4.0 11,260.00  18,399.99   4,932.2   139
ROSA      838.00     838.00    838.00   -2.0    570.01     855.00       0.4     1
TEBN    4,510.00   5,002.50  4,990.00   +6.2  1,031.00   5,002.50   2,342.7    20
TEBNp   1,220.00   1,300.00  1,300.00      0  1,073.75   1,390.00      44.8     2
TMLZ    5,058.02   5,779.50  5,779.50         5,058.02   5,779.50  12,102.9     3
TSBN    3,400.00   4,500.00  4,050.00  +35.0  1,350.00   4,500.00      98.6    11
TSBNp   1,988.00   2,100.00  1,988.00   -5.3  1,000.00   2,200.00      77.2     2
TSNAp   1,000.00   1,000.00  1,000.00      0  1,000.00   3,358.00   3,373.2     1
UTMK   27,000.00  27,000.00 27,000.00      0 16,010.00  38,250.00       3.9     1
ZERD        3.00       4.00      3.00 +100.0      0.80       4.50       8.9     3
------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- -----
43                                                                149,468.1 1,365
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were
made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last
deal of the previous month (January 1 - 31, 2007). If there were no deals last
month, trend is not calculated.

10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            As of Feb 28, 07:   as of Jan 31, 07:         Change:
Short or           -------------------------- ------------------- ---------------
abbreviated        po-    capi-         stake po-    capi-  stake    capi-
titleof the        si-  taliza- of the compa- si-  taliza- of the  taliza- stake,
company            ti-    tion,               ti-    tion, compa-    tion,      %
                    on    m USD         ny, %  on    m USD  ny, %    m USD points
------------------ --- -------- ------------- --- -------- ------ -------- ------
KAZAKHMYS PLС        1 12,993.6          20.9   1 13,059.4   21.3    -65.8   -0.4
Exploration
Production           2  8,570.3          13.8   2  8,280.2   13.5   +290.0   +0.3
KazMunayGas
Kazkommertsbank      3  6,476.2          10.4   3  6,588.1   10.8   -111.9   -0.3
Bank TuranAlem       4  5,912.0           9.5   5  5,037.9    8.2   +874.1   +1.3
Halyk savings
bank of Kazakhstan   5  5,286.2           8.5   6  4,960.3    8.1   +325.9   +0.4
Kazakhtelecom        6  4,373.4           7.0   7  3,886.2    6.3   +487.2   +0.7
CNPC-Aktobe-         7  3,733.6           6.0   4  5,664.1    9.2 -1,930.5   -3.2
munaygas
Alliance-bank        8  3,228.9           5.2   8  2,414.1    3.9   +814.9   +1.3
ATFBank              9  2,023.6           3.3   9  1,887.8    3.1   +135.8   +0.2
TNC Kazchrome       10  1,668.7           2.7  12  1,131.3    1.8   +537.4   +0.8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of
market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of
shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This
indicator at the session closing as of February 28, 2006 was $63,524.7 m. There
were 95 shares of 69 issuers in official securities list of KASE.

[2007-03-13]