ANALYSIS: As of March 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,431.4 bn. or $11,570.5 m.

/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 13, 06/ - As of March 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,431.4 bn., or $11,570.5 m. at the rate of KZT123.71 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was registered for the period from December 2006 to February 2007, on MEUJKAM - from March 2006 to February 2007. Within February 1-28 of 2007 the total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT17.9 bn. (-1.2%), in dollar equivalent increased by 90.1 m. (+0.8%). Similar indicators of debt change in January of 2007 were plus KZT332.7 bn. (+29.8%) or $2,688.3 m. (+30.6%). Following table contains detailed information. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Feb 28, 07 as of period ------------- ------------------ Jan 31, 0 ------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- National Bank KZT KZT 838.140 58.6 841.646 -3506.3 -0.4 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- Ministry of Finance 588.993 41.1 603.293 -14299.7 -2.4 incl. face value 436.782 30.5 437.390 -607.7 -0.1 also, domestic GS KZT, +277.8 +0.1 USD KZT 393.483 27.5 393.206 also, euronotes USD USD 43.299 3.0 44.184 -885.5 -2.0 incl. servicing 152.212 10.6 165.904 -13692.0 -8.3 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 149.803 10.5 163.446 -13642.7 -8.3 also, euronotes USD USD 2.408 0.2 2.458 -49.3 -2.0 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- Municipals USD KZT 4.256 0.3 4.343 -87.0 -2.0 incl. face value USD KZT 3.856 0.3 3.935 -78.9 -2.0 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.400 0.0 0.408 -8.2 -2.0 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.129 0.1 1.153 -23.1 -2.0 also, face value USD KZT 1.083 0.1 1.105 -22.2 -2.0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.046 0.003 0.047 -0.9 -2.0 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- incl. Atyrau USD KZT region akimat 3.126 0.2 3.190 -63.9 -2.0 also, face value USD KZT 2.772 0.2 2.829 -56.7 -2.0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.354 0.02 0.361 -7.2 -2.0 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- TOTAL 1431.389 100.0 1449.282 -17893.0 -1.2 incl. face value 1278.777 89.3 1282.970 -4192.8 -0.3 incl. servicing 152.612 10.7 166.312 -13700.1 -8.2 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- OR ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 1385.682 96.8 1402.640 -16958.2 -1.2 also, face value KZT KZT 1235.479 86.3 1238.786 -3307.3 -0.3 also, servicing KZT KZT 150.203 10.5 163.854 -13650.9 -8.3 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- -------- ---- incl. external debt USD USD 45.707 3.2 46.642 -934.8 -2.0 also, face value USD USD 43.299 3.0 44.184 -885.5 -2.0 also, servicing USD USD 2.408 0.2 2.458 -49.3 -2.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of February 28, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT123.71 per a dollar, as of January 31, 07 - at KZT126.24. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Feb 28, 07 as of period ------------- ----------------- Jan 31, 07 -------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- National Bank KZT KZT 6775,0 58,6 6667,0 +108005,2 +1,6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- Ministry of Finance 4761.1 41.1 4778.9 -17856.0 -0.4 incl. face value 3530.7 30.5 3464.7 +65945.2 +1.9 also, domestic GS KZT. USD KZT 3180.7 27.5 3114.7 +65945.2 +2.1 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 3.0 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 1230.4 10.6 1314.2 -83801.2 -6.4 also, domestic GS KZT. 1210.9 USD KZT 10.5 1294.7 -83801.2 -6.5 also, euronotes USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- Municipals USD KZT 34.40 0.3 34.40 0 0 incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.3 31.2 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 3.2 0.0 3.2 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 9.1 0.1 9.1 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 8.8 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.373 0.003 0.373 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 0.2 region akimat 25.3 25.3 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.2 22.4 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 2.9 0.02 2.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- TOTAL 11570.5 100.0 11480.4 +90149.2 +0.8 incl. face value 10336.9 89.3 10162.9 +173950.4 +1.7 incl. servicing 1233.6 10.7 1317.4 -83801.2 -6.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 11201.1 96.8 11110.9 +90149.2 +0.8 also, face value KZT KZT 9986.9 86.3 9812.9 +173950.4 +1.8 also, servicing KZT KZT 1214.2 10.5 1298.0 -83801.2 -6.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ---- incl. external debt USD USD 369.5 3.2 369.5 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 3.0 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in February 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT835,122.6 m. (in January 2006 - KZT838,558.2 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT841,646.1 (KZT535,009.7 m.). February net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT6,523.5 m. Corresponding index in January was plus KZT303,548.5 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In February the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEOKAM KZT277.8 m. (in January - KZT15,000.0 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT4,743.2 m. (in January - KZT1,467.1 m.). February net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT4,465.4 m. (in January - plus KZT13,532.9 m.). Total February net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT10,989.0 m. Similar indicator of January - plus KZT317,081.3 m. The given data reflect essential changes at the primary GS market of Kazakhstan in February 2007. The Ministry of Finance planned this month to borrow KZT16.5 bn. However, the issuer failed to find compromise solution in terms of price with buyers at the single specialized trades for bonds offering. Regardless the good demand, which was three times bigger than the amount of MEOKAM offering, the borrowing sum turned out to be insignificant (see above statistics). The National Bank did not compensate the volume, which was not offered completely by the Ministry of Finance, with additional issue of its notes, and it happened for the first time within several months the bank worked through the period with negative net-borrowing balance. Actually, the head bank of the country could afford itself to behave in that way as the volume of dollar purchase on the domestic market in February relative to January it reduced twice. To say differently, the conjuncture of the domestic currency market in the analyzed market gives an option to the National Bank of going without big tenge interventions, and, consequently, the negative net-borrowing balance on the notes market did not affect seriously the dynamics of monetary aggregates. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2007-03-13]