ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in January 2007 kept elaborating the potential of its growth and came closer to the correction, than according to December indicators

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, February 15, 07/ - In January 2007 1,051 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT26,005.1 m. or $206.9 m. at the current rate on dates of making deals. The specified amount is 46.1% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in December - 73.9%) and 0.9% of the entire month exchange's turnover (3.0%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in January 2007 and December 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------- Trend Jan Dec Jan 2007 to Indicator 2007 2006 Dec 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 206,880.8 682,060.4 -69.7% Trades volume, m KZT 26,005.1 87,173.6 -70.2% Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х Number of deals 1,051 1,208 -13.0% Number of instruments, involved in deals 44 52 -15.4% Stake of nego deals (number), % 12.7 35.3 -22.6 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 50.6 90.4 -39.8 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 3.5 1.1 +2.4 pp Part of physical entities, % on gross 15.0 19.1 -4.1 pp Number of exchange's members, 39 37 +5.4% who made deals Market concentration, %* 49.8 54.9 -5.1 pp --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) The vested indicators in the table give an evidence of that the shares market activity at the beginning of the year dramatically decreased. Compared to average month data 2006, volume of trades in January 2007 dropped by 38.9% in tenge expression (by 38.6% in dollar expression). The number of deals at that grew almost by 69%, and average volume of one deal, compared to 2006, fell 2.7 times to $196.8 th. Comparison of totals of December of January allow to consider that fall of shares turnover on the stock exchange emerged mostly for nego deals, the stake of which in January decreased almost two times. The given data of IRBIS analysts estimates the fact as the warning sign of the overheating market after rally, which started in November. The price background of the shares exchange market is characterized by following statistics (taking into account exceptionally high stake of direct deals in turnover of December, data in this paragraph is given considering their prices). By total of January 48% shares, which were involved in deals, denominations describe the growth of weighted average day prices, the fall - 43%, the stable rate - 7%, TSNAp (5%) had nothing to be compared. The similar indicators of December are 52%, 35%, 4% and 10%, respectively. Positive change in prices of shares in January was viewed in the range from 0.03% (UTMKp - "the leader" of price fall last month) to 126.5% (TSBN), negative - from 0.03% (RAHT) to 39.6% (AMGZp). IRBIS analysts consider that in respect of prices January market was adjusted to stabilization. Contraction of the fluctuations range reflects this fact as well as the change in price by 10% and over percent characterized only 38.6% securities, whereas the relevant indicator of December 2006 made 73.1%, in November - 56.4%. There is one more condition. Behavior of the index KASE_Shares in the analyzed month was characterized with pronounced growth (see the table bellow). The index keeps on working out the buoyant trend, developed in November 2006. However, results of the analysis, conducted by the IRBIS specialists, testify that the positive dynamics of market capitalization of shares market, as well as, the index KASE_Shares, in January was caused by the growth of offered shares of big listing companies (Kazkommertsbank JSC, Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC, Bank TuranAlem JSC, Alliance Bank JSC and other), and not by increase of their prices. It is concluded from all above-said that Kazakhstan shares market in January kept on elaborating the potential of its growth and came closer to the correction, compared to totals of December. Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in January 2007, are given below. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods by the moment of trades' closing on January 31 2007 (basis actual/365) ------------------------------------------------------- Change: -------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------ ------ For previous 30 days +4.9 +59.1 Since the beginning of the current year +4.9 +59.1 (since January 1, 06) For the last 365 days (year) +224.5 +224.5 For year 2005 +274.1 +274.1 Since the beginning of year 2004 +292.3 +270.1 ------------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in December of year 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- 29.12.06 56,611.4 2,418.08 83,630.5 10,621.1 77 03.01.07 58,286.0 2,349.98 3,759.4 476.6 25 04.01.07 58,306.3 2,315.35 4,682.8 592.6 40 05.01.07 58,141.1 2,361.27 7,047.9 888.6 78 08.01.07 57,877.9 2,325.32 2,173.6 273.3 36 09.01.07 57,609.7 2,369.37 5,220.9 655.0 62 10.01.07 57,627.7 2,335.16 9,983.3 1,249.9 66 11.01.07 57,250.9 2,343.72 5,286.7 663.7 62 12.01.07 57,425.2 2,359.87 13,736.4 1,724.5 41 15.01.07 57,475.6 2,276.23 4,485.1 562.0 25 16.01.07 59,977.7 2,284.85 3,583.7 448.9 25 17.01.07 61,220.2 2,541.80 3,894.8 487.5 65 18.01.07 61,102.9 2,430.85 12,779.4 1,597.4 60 19.01.07 61,267.1 2,436.01 29,463.3 3,678.8 48 22.01.07 60,979.0 2,505.03 12,455.4 1,560.2 41 23.01.07 61,042.5 2,480.16 3,869.0 486.4 37 24.01.07 60,869.8 2,538.14 4,865.4 611.7 52 25.01.07 60,937.2 2,499.81 9,696.9 1,219.4 82 26.01.07 60,904.9 2,440.82 9,898.9 1,249.5 53 29.01.07 61,286.1 2,434.64 6,123.1 772.1 37 30.01.07 60,814.4 2,406.08 5,697.4 719.2 48 31.01.07 61,252.9 2,535.63 48,177.4 6,087.7 68 -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +4,641.5 +117.54 % +8.2 +4.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in January 2006 ----------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 45 0 31 0 B 49 +1 39 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 94 +1 69 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 98 +1 69 +1 ----------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official list of "A" category; "В" - official list of "B" category; "А+В" - official list; to the end of month, changes per month. Results of trades in shares on KASE in January 2006 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: ----------------------------------------------------------- Volume Num- on last deal for last 365 days: ---------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 0 1,956.80 2,600.00 57.3 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- AMGZ 80,000.00 95,000.00 80,000.00 -13.0 39,000.00 130,000.00 807.1 8 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBN 11,100.00 50,000.00 50,000.00 +4.2 11,000.00 52,000.00 706.1 21 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBNp1 12,500.00 13,200.00 12,500.00 -1.2 10,000.00 16,900.00 2,033.1 4 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASND 10,000.00 11,218.99 11,175.00 +6.4 4,700.00 15,710.00 8,557.4 59 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFB 2,800.00 2,800.00 2,800.00 1,391.00 4,200.00 3.9 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFBp8 1,550.00 1,550.00 1,550.00 -2.9 1,251.00 4,150.00 1,458.5 20 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- BTAS 118,700.00 124,700.00 118,700.00 -1.1 66,000.00 190,000.00 23,811.2 59 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CCBN 1,505.00 1,950.00 1,950.00 -2.5 400.00 2,000.00 8,527.7 41 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CHFM 600.00 900.00 900.00 -10.0 600.00 1,650.00 19.4 3 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CSBN 4,925.00 5,150.00 4,950.00 +3.1 866.67 5,150.00 128.9 7 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CSBNp 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 8.9 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- EXBN 2,150.01 2,750.00 2,750.00 +37.5 2,000.00 2,750.00 3,792.8 10 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- GB_KZMS 555.00 640.00 618.00 +2.1 255.00 720.00 2,526.5 79 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- GLOT 240.00 266.00 250.00 -13.8 171.00 300.00 1,013.5 15 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- HSBK 1,350.00 1,450.00 1,400.00 +1.1 250.00 1,800.00 3,210.4 60 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- HSBKp1 340.00 380.00 360.00 -11.1 100.00 600.00 1,288.2 20 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KIBN 26,000.01 26,000.01 26,000.01 15,750.00 82,500.00 18.7 2 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGB 14,999.99 20,000.00 18,000.00 0 2,802.00 20,000.00 681.9 46 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGBp 38,500.00 45,000.00 44,500.00 +17.4 23,502.00 52,350.00 3,821.2 103 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZCR 12,000.00 12,600.00 12,380.00 +12.5 8,950.00 21,000.00 565.1 35 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTC 7,200.00 8,000.00 7,850.00 +4.7 4,510.00 18,300.00 154.0 10 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTCp 2,012.50 2,012.50 2,012.50 1,321.00 2,012.50 150.9 2 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTK 53,000.00 62,250.00 53,000.02 -3.6 25,650.00 62,250.00 296.9 8 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTKp 39,000.00 39,000.00 39,000.00 +2.6 22,000.00 40,000.00 17.2 2 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZZN 2,100.00 2,125.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 2,125.00 188.1 7 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBN 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 +10.0 655.00 14,325.00 0.2 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBNp6 3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 0 600.00 3,200.00 62.7 3 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ORNK 14,550.00 18,399.99 14,900.00 -15.8 11,260.00 18,399.99 16,555.3 198 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- PDES 854.99 855.00 854.99 570.01 855.00 0.8 2 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- RAHT 3,550.00 5,000.00 4,700.00 -6.0 1,031.00 5,000.00 159.6 13 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- RDGZ 1,150.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 -3.7 1,001.00 1,390.00 2,327.5 20 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBN 1,510.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 +57.9 1,040.00 3,450.00 2,007.1 38 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBNp 2,100.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 0 1,000.00 2,200.00 16.7 3 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBN 1,000.00 3,358.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 3,358.00 14,708.0 2 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBNp 25,000.00 27,000.00 27,000.00 5,250.00 38,250.00 41.8 5 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- UTMKp 3,001.00 3,001.00 3,001.00 0 100.00 29,000.00 0.2 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ZERD 1.50 4.50 1.50 0 0.80 4.50 2,416.2 8 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- 38 102,141.1 918 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: In case of deals absence for the period (volume = 0), it is specified the last price of resulting trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (November 1 - 30, 2006). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (by the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ As of Jan 31, 07: as of Dec 29, 06: Change: Short or -------------------------- ------------------- --------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- taliza- of the compa- si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, company ti- tion, ti- tion, compa- tion, % (all - JSC) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points --------------- --- -------- ------------- --- -------- ------ -------- ------ KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 13,059.4 21.3 1 12,993.6 23.0 +65.8 -1.6 Exploration Production 2 8,280.2 13.5 2 9,786.7 17.3 -1,506.5 -3.8 KazMunayGas Kazkommertsbank 3 6,588.1 10.8 5 4,518.2 8.0 +2,069.9 +2.8 CNPC-Aktobe- 4 5,664.1 9.2 3 6,480.9 11.4 -816.8 -2.2 munaygas Bank 5 5,037.9 8.2 6 4,304.8 7.6 +733.1 +0.6 TuranAlem Halyk savings bank 6 4,960.3 8.1 4 4,606.1 8.1 +354.2 0 of Kazakhstan Kazakhtelecom 7 3,886.2 6.3 7 2,185.1 3.9 +1,701.1 +2.5 Alliance Bank 8 2,414.1 3.9 10 1,267.8 2.2 +1,146.3 +1.7 ATFBank 9 1,887.8 3.1 8 1,677.5 3.0 +210.3 +0.1 Bank 10 1,532.7 2.5 9 1,551.7 2.7 -18.9 -0.2 CenterCredit ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of January 31, 2007 was $61,252.9 m. There were 94 shares of 69 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2007-02-15]