ANALYSIS: In January 2007 repo rates on KASE kept on falling against the background of growth of the short-term tenge liquidity of the market and the volume of repo transactions

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, Adrey Tsalyuk, February 8, 07/ - In January 2007 at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 4,672 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,032.3 bn. or USD16,156.9 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 69.2% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in December 2006 - 57.7%). Compared to December 2006 the volume of transactions increased by KZT336.6 bn. ($2,897.9 m.) or by 19.9% (by 21.9% in dollars). Relative to January 2006 the volume of transactions increased by KZT1,236.1 bn. ($10,166.0 m.) or 2.6 times (2.7 times in dollars). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in January on comparable operations totaled 99.3%, in December 2006 - 99.7%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in January was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 91.6% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,860.7 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 79.3% (KZT1,611.8 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 12.3% (KZT248.8 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 8.4% of the sector's turnover (KZT171.6 bn.), including deals in GS - 2.3% (KZT47.6 bn.), deals in CS - 6.1% (KZT124.0 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in December 2006 was as follows: autorepo - 85.0% (GS - 71.2%; CS - 13.8%); repo by nego method - 15.0% (GS - 2.7%; CS - 12,2%). January in the described market segment was very similar to the previous month. Active market sterilization, conducted by the National bank at the end of 2006, in light of negligible term of notes circulation did not solve the problem of excess liquidity. In the middle of January borrowed money by the National bank were returned to the market, causing the fall even without that low repo rates "overnight" (the weighted average value of the TONIA indicator decreased from 1.98% APR to 1.19% APR). This very circumstance made for activation of exchange repo market, volume of transactions at which increased almost by 20%). A noticeable change of market turnover structure should be noted, which came back to a classic condition after stresses of December. Continuing rally at the share market no longer required such big borrowings of short money from investors, as in December. According to the assumption of IRBIS analysts, the share market in the analyzed month got a substantial replenishment from the side of foreign investors. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in January 2007 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (6.1% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 79.3% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ---------- ----- ------ KZT_001 1.50 0.01 6.00 0.01 1.19 685,682.19 1063 91.43 KZT_002 3.25 0.30 4.25 1.00 2.04 30,140.00 23 4.02 KZT_003 5.00 2.50 5.00 4.25 4.27 10,390.00 7 1.39 KZT_007 4.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 2.42 16,727.01 27 2.23 KZT_014 3.20 3.20 3.80 3.80 3.46 7,000.00 9 0.93 KZT_028 4.00 20.00 1 0.003 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ---------- ----- ------ TOTAL 749,959.2 1,130 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 12.3% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_014 6.50 183.02 1 0.15 ASBN_060 8.70 400.01 1 0.34 ASBNb3_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 140.00 5 0.12 ASBNb3_003 4.50 159.00 1 0.13 ASBNb3_007 6.20 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.23 465.00 5 0.39 ASBNb4_007 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.25 249.00 2 0.21 ASBNb4_014 7.50 123.00 1 0.10 ASBNp1_007 6.50 60.00 1 0.05 ASBNp1_014 7.50 7.00 8.00 7.00 7.39 271.02 3 0.23 ASFI_007 5.00 15.00 1 0.01 ASFI_030 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 633.01 3 0.53 ASFIb5_003 5.00 20.00 1 0.02 ASFIb5_007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 1,328.00 2 1.12 ASFIb5_014 7.50 650.00 1 0.55 ASFIb7_007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 2,509.00 2 2.12 ASFIb7_014 7.50 1,200.00 1 1.01 ATFB_028 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.75 26.00 2 0.02 ATFBb4_001 4.20 4.20 6.17 6.17 5.16 616.00 2 0.52 ATFBb4_002 5.30 360.00 1 0.30 ATFBp8_001 4.20 3.50 5.00 5.00 4.42 2,260.01 10 1.91 ATFBp8_007 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.08 795.00 3 0.67 BTAIb5_014 6.80 150.00 1 0.13 BTAS_001 3.00 3.00 7.00 3.00 4.82 7,954.14 24 6.72 BTAS_007 5.00 3.00 7.00 3.00 5.84 2,644.66 17 2.23 BTAS_030 6.50 6.50 9.00 7.00 7.01 18,185.84 45 15.36 BTAS_090 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 1,642.19 3 1.39 BTASb7_001 4.80 4.80 6.00 6.00 5.13 360.01 2 0.30 BTASb7_007 6.00 6.00 6.80 6.80 6.39 820.02 3 0.69 BTASb7_030 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 4,000.02 8 3.38 CCBN_001 7.00 3.50 7.00 4.00 4.68 548.00 10 0.46 CCBN_030 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.58 428.00 2 0.36 CSBNb4_007 6.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 6.51 470.01 2 0.40 CSBNb5_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 558.01 3 0.47 CSBNb5_007 6.50 6.00 6.50 6.00 6.11 319.03 4 0.27 DNBN_028 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 450.00 3 0.38 EUBNb3_001 3.60 3.60 5.00 3.70 4.44 1,129.00 8 0.95 EUBNb3_007 6.50 6.00 6.50 6.30 6.13 1,138.00 6 0.96 EUBNb3_014 7.50 6.00 7.50 6.80 7.12 1,220.00 6 1.03 KKGB_007 7.00 415.00 1 0.35 KKGB_028 8.00 43.00 1 0.04 KKGBp_001 4.20 4.00 4.20 4.00 4.14 757.00 6 0.64 KKGBp_003 5.30 4.30 5.30 4.30 4.77 405.00 2 0.34 KKGBp_014 6.00 207.00 1 0.17 KKGBp_028 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 228.00 3 0.19 KZTC_001 3.50 3.00 7.50 3.50 3.81 13,607.60 147 11.49 KZTC_007 6.50 4.50 7.50 7.50 6.04 21,744.59 100 18.36 KZTC_014 6.00 6.00 7.50 6.50 7.16 2,396.06 12 2.02 KZTC_028 7.00 6.00 9.20 7.00 8.11 4,553.10 26 3.84 KZTCb1_001 4.00 3.00 4.00 3.00 3.67 165.00 4 0.14 KZTCb1_007 6.20 6.00 6.20 6.00 6.10 80.00 3 0.07 KZTK_014 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 28.01 2 0.02 KZZN_003 4.50 40.00 1 0.03 NFBNb1_007 5.50 100.00 1 0.08 NFBNb1_014 8.00 86.00 1 0.07 NFBNb1_028 8.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 8.22 356.00 5 0.30 NFBNb1_090 9.00 20.00 1 0.02 NRBNb4_001 4.20 4.00 4.20 4.00 4.15 1,487.00 4 1.26 NRBNb4_003 4.50 372.00 1 0.31 NRBNb4_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1,118.00 3 0.94 NRBNb5_001 4.20 3.70 4.20 3.70 4.10 2,452.00 6 2.07 NRBNb5_003 5.00 4.50 5.00 4.50 4.65 1,137.00 6 0.96 NRBNb5_007 7.50 6.00 7.50 6.50 6.34 2,561.00 9 2.16 ORDB_028 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.05 286.01 4 0.24 ORNKb1_001 3.00 50.00 1 0.04 ORNKb1_007 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 300.00 2 0.25 ORNKb1_014 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.53 296.00 4 0.25 ORNKb1_028 8.00 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.24 425.00 2 0.36 RDGZ_001 4.00 230.01 1 0.19 RDGZ_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 460.02 2 0.39 RDGZ_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 233.01 2 0.20 RDGZ_028 7.00 13.01 1 0.01 RGBRb4_007 7.00 4.00 7.00 6.50 6.91 1,171.00 19 0.99 RGBRb4_014 6.00 30.00 1 0.03 TSBNb1_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 809.00 5 0.68 TSBNb1_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 320.00 2 0.27 UTMK_030 9.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 8.68 4,896.13 9 4.13 VITAb5_090 9.50 9.50 9.61 9.61 9.58 60.00 2 0.05 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 118,416.5 599 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 2.3% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 0.36 0.36 1.50 1.50 1.37 850.00 2 69.83 5 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 118.30 2 9.72 6 2.92 2.92 3.50 2.92 2.92 249.00 6 20.46 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 1,217.3 10 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2007-02-08]