ANALYSIS: In 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued in the form of GS, increased in nominal terms by KZT449.5 bn. or by $7,743.6 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 16, 07/ - In 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, increased in the nominal terms (without taking into account coupon payments) in current prices by KZT449.5 bn. or $3,743.6 m. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Debt amount and structure ---------------------------------- as of Dec. 12,07 as of Dec. 12,05 Change ---------------- ---------------- for the analyzed period bn. stake, bn. stake, ---------------- Issuer KZT % KZT % bn. KZT % -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ National Bank 535.010 55.6 161.275 31.5 +373.734 +231.7 -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ Ministry of Finance 422.656 44.0 345.030 67.4 +77.626 +22.5 out of them domestic GS 378.206 39.3 298.210 58.2 +79.995 +26.8 out of them euronotes 44.450 4.6 46.820 9.1 -2.370 -5.1 -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ Municipal bodies 3.958 0.4 5.794 1.1 -1.836 -31.7 including Astana akimat 1.112 0.1 2.009 0.4 -0.897 -44.6 including akimat of Atyrau 2.846 0.3 3.785 0.7 -0.939 -24.8 oblast -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ TOTAL 961.624 100.0 512.099 100.0 +449.524 +87.8 including domestic debt 917.174 95.4 465.280 90.9 +451.894 +97.1 including foreign debt 44.450 4.6 46.820 9.1 -2.370 -5.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Equivalents as of December 31, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT127.00 per dollar, as of December 31, 05 - at KZT133.77. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Debt amount and structure ---------------------------------- as of Dec. 12,07 as of Dec. 12,05 Change ---------------- ---------------- for the analyzed period m. stake, m. stake, ---------------- Issuer USD % USD % m. USD % -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ National Bank 4,212.7 55.6 1,205.6 31.5 +3,007.1 +249.4 -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ Ministry of Finance 3,328.0 44.0 2,579.3 67.4 +748.7 +29.0 out of them domestic GS 2,978.0 39.3 2,229.3 58.2 +748.7 +33.6 out of them euronotes 350.0 4.6 350.0 9.1 0 0 -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ Municipal bodies 31.2 0.4 43.3 1.1 -12.1 -28.0 including Astana akimat 8.8 0.1 15.0 0.4 -6.3 -41.7 including akimat of Atyrau 22.4 0.3 28.3 0.7 -5.9 -20.8 oblast -------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ -------- ------ TOTAL 7,571.8 100.0 3,828.2 100.0 +3,743.6 +97.8 including domestic debt 7,221.8 95.4 3,478.2 90.9 +3,743.6 +107.6 including foreign debt 350.0 4.6 350.0 9.1 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in 2006 by offering amounts was KZT3,827.0 bn. (in 2005 - KZT1,960.2 bn.). At that, the issuer paid off liabilities for a total sum of KZT3,463.7 (KZT2,210.3 m.). Thus, net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was plus KZT363.3 bn (corresponding index of 2005 - minus KZT250.0 bn.). The "minus" sign in balance indicator means that the specified amount was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, the "plus" sign - by the specified amount the issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In 2006 the Ministry of finance borrowed by means of MEKAM offering KZT167.6 bn. (in 2005 - KZT122.8 m.). Coupon payments (including euronotes) and redemption of the face value of bonds totaled at current rates KZT109.2 bn. (KZT81.4 bn.). In 2006 the net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT58.4 bn. (in 2005 - plus KZT41.4 bn.). Taking into consideration the fact that the Ministry of finance was not interested in the increasing of its debt in view of sufficient receipts in the treasury from other items of income part of the budget, given data illustrate the concern of the Ministry of finance for development of the stock market of Kazakhstan, namely - for support of institutionalized investors of this market and above all of accumulative pension funds. Municipal bodies at GS market in 2006 did not issue bonds. Volume of debt redemption and serving of municipal bodies in 2006 totaled KZT2,006.3 m., in 2005 - KZT2,682.1 m.. Thus, the net-borrowing balance of local executive authorities of Kazakhstan in 2006 was minus KZT2,006.3 m., in 2005 - minus KZT2,682.1 m. Total net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers in the analyzed period is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT419.6 bn. Corresponding indicator of 2005 - minus KZT211.3 bn. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central depository of securities JSC (Almaty). [2007-01-16]