ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in December 2006 looked remarkably positive, worked over all good news through prices to maximum

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 15, 07/ - In December 2006 1,208 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT87,173.6 m. or $682.1 m. at the current rate on dates of making deals. The specified amount is 73.9% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in November - 71.0%) and 3.0% of the entire month exchange's turnover (2.0%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in December and November of year 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------- Trend Dec Nov Dec 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 Nov 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 682,060.4 416,729.0 +38.9% Trades volume, m KZT 87,173.6 53,326.0 +38.8% Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х including by subscription, th. USD - 208,190.3 Х including by subscription, m. KZT - 26,644.2 Х Number of deals 1,208 761.0 +37.0% Number of instruments, involved in deals 52 39 +25.0% Stake of nego deals (number), % 35.3 28.8 +6.5 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 90.4 68.8 +21.6 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 1.1 25.9 -24.9 pp Part of physical entities, % on gross 19.1 22.4 -3.3 pp Number of exchange's members, 37 31 +16.2% who made deals Market concentration, %* 54.9 74.4 +25.4 pp --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) December exchange market of shares is characterized by several factors of record at once. Last month of the past year reflected the absolute record in terms of quantity and volumes of deals on the secondary market of share instruments, at that, the average month analogical indicators of 2006 exceeded over 2 times. In December the biggest amount of instruments were involved in purchase and sales deals for the year. The stake of direct deals in terms of volume reached 90.4%, whereas within the previous 11 months this indicator made 79.0%. The part of pension assets in December is the annual minimum; the maximum of this indicator falls on May - 27.8%. Index KASE_Shares on last day of the past year took the absolute historical maximum - 2,418.08, having followed the performance of Russian fund indexes. The price background of the shares exchange market is characterized by following statistics (taking into account exceptionally high stake of direct deals in turnover of December, data in this paragraph is given considering their prices): by total of December 52% shares, which were involved in deals, denominations describe the growth of weighted average day prices, the fall - 35%, the stable rate - 4%, prices of five securities (10%) had nothing to be compared. The similar indicators of November are 67%, 26%, 5% and 2%, respectively. Positive change in prices of shares in December was viewed in the range from 0.001% (KANT) to 400.2% (RAHT), negative - from 1.1% (TMLZ) to 77.8% (UTMKp - the growth leader of last month). By results of December IRBIS analysts had an impression that shares market "fagged out" itself completely, and worked over all positive reports of the year. Currently it is difficult to take to mind any information, which can so positively impacted upon the market in nearest future, as it happened in last autumn. Before results of activities of the main listing companies and, first of al, of banks, by totals of 2006, the potential of following growth of shares; prices seems to be insignificant. Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in December 2006, are given below. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods by the moment of trades' closing on December 29 2006 (basis actual/365) -------------------------------------------------------- Change: --------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------- ------ For previous 30 days +15.9 +193.2 Since the beginning of the current year +274.1 +274.1 (since January 1, 06) For the last 365 days (year) +274.1 +274.1 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 Since the beginning of year 2004 +1597.8 +533.1 -------------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in December of year 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- 30.11.06 39,701.9 2,086.78 8,569.4 1,096.7 42 01.12.06 51,743.2 2,042.09 18,757.2 2,400.0 45 04.12.06 50,904.3 2,048.58 10,717.7 1,371.1 35 05.12.06 51,061.7 2,066.88 3,486.2 446.1 37 06.12.06 51,115.7 2,093.06 5,046.0 645.8 50 07.12.06 51,472.2 2,068.76 11,871.9 1,519.5 47 08.12.06 51,710.5 2,116.55 3,472.5 444.4 61 11.12.06 51,490.1 2,070.70 1,475.8 188.9 32 12.12.06 52,232.2 2,230.77 37,357.5 4,782.5 56 13.12.06 53,749.6 2,187.45 26,963.6 3,450.8 77 14.12.06 53,863.4 2,236.76 150,464.0 19,253.4 66 15.12.06 55,510.7 2,220.42 18,612.8 2,380.9 75 20.12.06 53,454.7 2,184.43 95,031.6 12,154.5 64 21.12.06 54,665.1 2,185.63 28,268.7 3,617.0 60 22.12.06 55,238.5 2,246.08 72,089.7 9,226.8 109 25.12.06 55,835.4 2,178.43 19,438.9 2,488.0 55 26.12.06 56,425.7 2,333.15 8,972.0 1,147.9 81 27.12.06 53,904.5 2,334.51 76,981.8 9,834.4 135 28.12.06 54,144.2 2,347.73 9,421.7 1,200.5 46 29.12.06 56,611.4 2,418.08 83,630.5 10,621.1 77 -------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +16,909.5 +331.31 % +42.6 +15.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in December 2006 ----------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 45 +3 31 +2 B 48 0 38 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 93 +3 68 +3 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 97 +3 68 +3 ----------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official list of "A" category; "В" - official list of "B" category; "А+В" - official list; to the end of month, changes per month. Results of trades in shares on KASE in December 2006 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: ----------------------------------------------------------- on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ---------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 1,956.80 2,600.00 16.6 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- AMGZ 92,000.00 105,000.00 92,000.00 37,500.00 130,000.00 55.4 4 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBN 43,000.00 48,000.00 48,000.00 0 11,000.00 48,000.00 82.1 4 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBNp1 12,540.00 12,650.00 12,650.00 -9.0 10,000.00 16,900.00 4,958.6 40 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASND 3,850.00 3,850.00 3,850.00 3,850.00 3,850.00 151.6 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFB 8,900.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 +14.1 4,700.00 15,710.00 514.6 19 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFBp8 1,500.00 1,800.00 1,596.50 +3.0 1,233.00 4,150.00 15,048.1 61 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- BTAS 117,000.00 120,000.00 120,000.00 +8.1 66,000.00 190,000.00 7,715.9 28 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CCBN 1,250.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 +50.4 350.01 2,000.00 2,156.7 28 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CHFM 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 600.00 1,650.00 8.0 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CSBN 4,000.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 +28.0 701.00 5,150.00 159.1 11 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CSBNp 700.01 1,000.00 1,000.00 255.00 1,000.00 142.3 13 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- EXBN 2,000.00 2,350.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,350.00 10,918.7 4 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- GB_KZMS 3,530.00 3,530.00 3,530.00 3,530.00 3,530.00 33.3 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- GLOT 5,600.00 5,700.00 5,600.00 -25.3 1,500.00 7,500.00 73.6 2 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- HSBK 351.00 620.00 605.00 +37.5 135.00 640.00 2,887.2 134 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- HSBKp1 200.00 300.00 290.00 169.00 300.00 746.0 8 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KIBN 150.00 225.00 225.00 150.00 230.00 20.8 5 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGB 1,285.00 1,500.00 1,385.00 +6.5 250.00 1,800.00 1,239.4 68 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGBp 265.00 405.00 405.00 +72.3 100.00 600.00 2,211.4 24 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZCR 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 1.00 30,000.00 15.6 3 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTC 11,100.00 18,500.00 18,000.00 +12.5 2,175.00 20,000.00 1,795.1 43 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTCp 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 9,000.00 7.5 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTK 34,000.00 37,900.00 37,900.00 +2.4 22,500.00 50,000.00 110.8 8 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTKp 9,500.00 11,000.00 11,000.00 +15.8 8,950.00 21,000.00 344.8 17 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZZN 6,500.00 7,500.00 7,500.00 +15.4 4,000.01 18,300.00 291.2 25 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBN 50,000.00 55,000.00 55,000.00 +19.6 25,650.00 62,160.00 392.0 6 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBNp6 28,100.00 40,000.00 38,000.00 +6.2 22,000.00 40,000.00 551.4 18 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ORNK 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 1.2 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- PDES 843.03 1,050.00 1,000.00 -3.8 655.00 14,325.00 2,794.8 6 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- RAHT 3,001.00 3,001.00 3,001.00 600.00 3,200.00 257.9 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- RDGZ 13,440.00 17,700.00 17,700.00 +28.3 11,260.00 18,399.99 8,030.3 149 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBN 4,200.00 5,000.00 5,000.00 +31.6 1,000.00 5,000.00 266.2 21 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBNp 1,300.00 1,390.00 1,350.00 +3.8 1,001.00 1,390.00 347.3 6 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBN 1,900.00 2,000.00 1,900.00 +18.0 1,040.00 2,600.00 93.3 6 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBNp 1,300.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 +40.0 1,000.00 2,200.00 1,247.0 7 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- UTMKp 2,500.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 -77.8 100.00 29,000.00 70.2 6 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ZERD 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.80 4.49 2.2 1 ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- 38 65,758.2 782 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: In case of deals absence for the period (volume = 0), it is specified the last price of resulting trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (November 1 - 30, 2006). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (by the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of Dec 31, 06: as of Nov 30, 06: Change: Short or -------------------------- ------------------ --------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- taliza- of the compa- si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, company ti- tion, ti- tion, compa- tion, % (all - JSC) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points --------------- --- -------- ------------- --- ------- ------ -------- ------ KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 12,993.6 22.95 - - - Х Х Exploration Production 2 9,786.7 17.29 1 7,846.2 19.76 +1,940.5 -2.48 KazMunayGas CNPC-Aktobe- 3 6,480.9 11.45 2 6,641.0 16.73 -160.1 -5.28 munaygas Halyk savings bank 4 4,606.1 8.14 5 3,314.4 8.35 +1,291.7 -0.21 of Kazakhstan Kazkommertsbank 5 4,518.2 7.98 3 4,086.4 10.29 +431.8 -2.31 Bank 6 4,304.8 7.60 4 3,559.9 8.97 +744.9 -1.36 TuranAlem Kazakhtelecom 7 2,185.1 3.86 6 3,187.8 8.03 -1,002.7 -4.17 ATFBank 8 1,677.5 2.96 7 1,474.8 3.71 +202.7 -0.75 Bank 9 1,551.7 2.74 11 1,077.9 2.71 +473.8 +0.03 CenterCredit Alliance-bank 10 1,267.8 2.24 9 1,260.2 3.17 +7.5 -0.93 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of December 29, 2006 was $56,611.4 m. There were 93 shares of 68 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2007-01-15]