ANALYSIS: In December 2006 turnover of purchase-sale sector of corporate bonds increased by 42.4% to $242.3 m.
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 11, 07/ - In December 2006 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 394 deals were made in corporate bonds in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT30,977.3 m. or USD242.3 m. at the current rate effective on dates of concluding deals. The stated amount is 26.2% of monthly turnover of market of corporate securities (in November 2006 - 29.0%) and 1.1% of exchange's monthly turnover (0.8%).
Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in December and November of 2006
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Month:
-------------------- Trend
December November Dec 2006 compared to
Indicator 2006 2006 Nov 2006
---------------------------------- --------- --------- --------------------
Trades volume, th., USD 242,336.5 170,171.3 +42.4%
Trades volume, m., KZT 30,977.3 21,773.8 +42.3%
including, on offerings, th. USD 0 0 X
including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 X
including, on secondary market 242,336.5 170,171.3 +42.4%
deals, th. USD
including, on secondary market 30,977.3 21,773.8 +42.3%
deals, m. KZT
Number of deals 394 244 +61.5%
Number of instruments, 78 63 +22.2%
involved in deals
Stake of nego deals (number), % 10.9 9.8 +1.1,пп
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 9.5 4.2 +5.3,пп
Part of pension assets, % on gross 18.2 31.7 -13.5,пп
Number of exchange's members, 26.0 13.7 +12.3,пп
of those, who made deals
Market concentration, %* 38 36 +5.6%
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*it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which
are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total
quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE)
As it is seen form the table, given above, almost all characteristics of the given segment of exchange's market by results of December have the positive meaning in comparison with the previous month. However it evidences about return of market to average annual year indicators after some decrease of its activity in November.
The other particularity of December exchange market of corporate bonds is the significant decrease of stake of participation of pension assets in it. The indicator of December is the second for year2006 after January minimum. As a whole for this year this indicator totaled 25.7% and varied during the year from 16.4% in January to 33.6% in August. On the contrary, the activity of physical persons on the market increased twice and is characterizing by the indicator, significantly exceeding the average annual level (16.1% at gross- turnover).
In relation of prices the market still looks enough balanced, though amplitude of fluctuations of price of December is slightly wider then previous same meanings.
Dynamics of weighted average net prices is described by the following statistics. In the analyzed month out of 78 bonds denominations, involved in deals at the secondary market, 36 denominations were traded lower than the nominal value; 42 were traded with premium. KRZHb1 look more repurchased (its weighted average net price as 120.28%% of the face value), ASNDb1 (92.31%) - more resold. In November deals at the secondary market were carried out with bonds of 63 denominations, securities of 32 denominations were traded with discount, 31 - with premium. CCBNb4 (113.59%) looked more repurchased, HSBKb10 (89.67%) - more resold. The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in December totaled 100.13%, in November - 99.57%.
In December on concluded deals earnings yield of called bonds to maturity for a purchaser increased at 31 corporate bonds, decreased at 40. There was nothing to compare with the yield of seven new securities. In November the corresponding indicators are 25, 36 and 2.
Dynamics of indexes of KASE_B* series, providing in the below-given table of main indicators of the market, hardly looks demonstrative, due to imperfection of indexes calculation methodology. On this dynamics very strong impact have the quotations of international bonds, deals on which are absent on KASE, and unbalanced influence of quotations' values and prices of separate bonds of large issues. By the pointed reason the amplitude of technical fluctuations of for example of index KASE_BY in December had exceeded several times the real trend meaning. As a result the change of index by the totals of the period reflects more the amplitude of fluctuations of technical (caused by particularities of calculation), but not conjuncture.
As a whole KASE_BY in December, as in November work the horizontal channel axes of which lies little upper then 7.20% APR.
The vested data let the analysts of IRBIS to speak about minimal changes on the market of corporate debt liabilities in the analyzing period.
Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in December, are given below.
Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in December of 2006
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Bonds: Issuers:
Category of ------------- -------------
admission number trend number trend
----------- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 184 +6 61 +3
B 18 +1 17 +3
----------- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 202 +7 78 +6
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Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category;
"B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; by the end of the month, change for the month.
Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in December of 2006
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Market.
value of Index Volume of Volume of
debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals,
Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT
--------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
November 30,06 12,694.2 7.18 201.2 130.57 4,795.1 613.7
December 1, 06 12,693.7 7.19 201.3 130.56 5,765.3 737.7
December 4, 06 12,701.9 7.19 201.4 130.58 2,870.5 367.2
December 5, 06 12,717.2 7.19 201.3 130.53 2,383.9 305.0
December 6, 06 12,712.7 7.18 201.6 130.66 4,668.1 597.4
December 7, 06 12,695.4 7.17 201.7 130.71 7,202.3 921.8
December 8, 06 12,717.5 7.15 201.9 130.84 6,510.9 833.3
December 11, 06 12,761.5 7.18 201.7 130.60 3,916.9 501.4
December 12, 06 12,760.4 7.18 201.7 130.56 7,502.7 960.5
December 13, 06 12,757.7 7.25 201.1 130.11 27,075.8 3,465.2
December 14, 06 12,796.9 7.19 201.7 130.55 27,034.6 3,459.3
December 15, 06 12,805.6 7.27 201.1 130.07 26,322.9 3,367.2
December 20, 06 12,798.2 7.19 202.0 130.61 7,546.2 965.2
December 21, 06 12,805.3 7.19 202.0 130.60 5,846.3 748.0
December 22, 06 12,802.1 7.21 201.8 130.42 19,380.0 2,480.4
December 25, 06 12,804.6 7.20 202.1 130.52 12,605.6 1,613.4
December 26, 06 12,893.1 7.20 202.2 130.57 22,190.6 2,839.1
December 27, 06 12,904.4 7.39 201.0 129.74 13,802.9 1,763.3
December 28, 06 12,925.8 7.20 202.3 130.54 20,321.9 2,589.4
December 29, 06 12,892.7 7.41 201.6 129.61 19,389.0 2,462.4
--------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
Trend +198.5 +0.24 +0.5 -1.0
+1.56% +3.29% +0.23% -0.74%
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Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in December of 2006 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals)
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Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR:
-------------------------------------------
For last
Code of At a last deal: 365 days: Volume of
bond --------------- ------------ deals, Number
on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals
------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- --------
ASBNb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 10.50 10.6 1
ASBNb3 9.14 9.85 9.14 -0.36 7.50 10.75 1 902.9 8
ASBNb4 9.56 10.00 9.58 -0.42 8.00 11.50 20 605.5 7
ASBNb6 8.49 9.53 9.53 8.49 9.53 5 252.6 6
ASFIb4 11.08 11.08 11.08 +1.58 9.39 11.08 478.1 1
ASFIb5 11.02 11.48 11.48 +1.98 8.73 11.50 1 704.4 9
ASFIb7 9.30 10.95 10.30 -0.57 9.00 10.95 3 308.8 12
ASNDb1 9.00 11.00 11.00 9.00 11.00 7 994.3 3
ATFBb3 6.86 8.08 8.08 -0.01 6.10 8.25 326.0 5
BRKZb1 9.00 10.00 9.00 7.10 10.00 45.9 3
BTAIb1 9.25 9.25 9.25 -0.75 8.50 10.00 53.1 2
BTAIb4 8.76 8.76 8.76 -0.04 8.20 10.00 106.6 2
BTAIb5 8.78 8.78 8.78 8.45 8.90 44.6 1
BTAIb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 10.09 112.0 1
BTASb1 9.00 11.50 9.00 6.50 11.50 3 061.8 4
BTASb2 8.50 9.50 9.50 7.90 11.20 3 579.6 6
BTASb3 10.90 10.90 10.90 7.50 10.90 1 146.9 12
BTASb4 9.92 10.13 9.92 +0.07 7.00 10.13 1 668.2 15
BTASb5 8.00 8.00 8.00 -0.27 7.40 8.50 765.9 8
BTASb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 0 6.85 7.00 8 584.1 4
BTTRb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 155.6 1
CACMb1 9.75 9.80 9.76 -0.04 9.75 9.80 3 184.9 8
CCBNb10 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.89 8.25 1 798.1 1
CCBNb3 8.50 9.00 8.50 8.50 9.00 166.6 4
CHFMb1 6.50 10.00 6.50 4.50 10.00 2 947.9 8
CSBNb4 9.70 9.70 9.70 0 8.75 9.87 87.0 1
DNTLb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1 686.1 8
DTJLb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.04 9.00 9.04 4 205.0 2
EKTNb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 1 795.9 3
EUBNb3 8.20 8.20 8.20 0 8.00 8.20 21 451.5 8
GLOTb1 9.50 10.00 10.00 +0.50 9.49 10.00 4 821.5 6
HSBKb 9.10 11.60 11.60 0 7.00 11.60 561.2 9
HSBKb10 7.49 7.49 7.49 -0.98 6.10 8.46 4 168.0 1
HSBKb2 8.00 9.10 9.10 +0.60 7.00 10.50 90.7 3
HSBKb5 7.50 8.00 8.00 0 6.00 8.00 554.1 4
HSBKb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.50 23.8 1
HSBKb9 7.57 7.70 7.57 7.50 8.10 208.8 3
KASSb1 9.00 9.50 9.47 8.80 9.50 1 805.3 3
KASTb2 8.89 10.20 10.18 8.40 10.20 1 623.7 5
KATRb1 11.99 12.00 12.00 0 10.00 13.00 19.5 6
KAZIb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 10.70 11.00 4 967.1 5
KIBNb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.00 11.50 281.6 3
KKAGb1 11.00 12.00 11.00 -1.00 9.50 12.30 736.2 3
KKAGb3 9.20 9.25 9.25 +0.05 9.20 9.25 10 777.5 5
KKGBb2 7.50 7.50 7.50 6.25 9.67 300.5 1
KKGBb5 6.90 7.50 7.50 6.00 7.50 2 011.4 5
KONDb1 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 17 775.6 5
KRZHb1 7.88 7.89 7.88 7.88 12.00 1 383.2 7
KZALb1 10.30 10.30 10.30 -0.95 9.10 11.25 231.1 1
KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 0 8.00 8.90 721.0 2
KZIKb14 3.50 5.50 3.50 3.00 5.50 45.0 3
KZIKb7 7.00 7.25 7.25 5.00 7.25 6 470.3 7
KZNHb2 9.85 12.00 12.00 9.50 13.50 1 617.6 9
MREKb1 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.75 87.6 1
MREKb2 9.05 9.05 9.05 8.75 9.05 534.0 3
MREKb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 9.50 9.50 6 962.0 5
NRBNb2 8.20 8.20 8.20 7.99 9.60 508.5 1
NRBNb3 8.20 8.20 8.20 0 8.10 8.70 163.4 2
NRBNb4 8.35 8.35 8.35 +0.10 7.80 8.38 7 253.0 5
NRBNb5 8.30 8.30 8.30 0 8.30 8.50 2 922.9 2
ORDBb2 10.00 12.50 12.50 10.00 12.50 4 117.9 4
ORNKb1 10.00 11.00 10.00 -0.99 9.80 12.00 1 758.5 4
PRKRb2 8.00 8.00 8.00 -0.50 7.10 8.50 1 181.1 1
ROSAb2 8.48 8.48 8.48 8.48 9.50 17.4 1
TEBNb11 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 4 087.1 1
TEBNb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 13.50 16.50 39.4 4
TEBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 9.00 9.00 58.6 1
TEBNb9 8.80 9.00 9.00 +0.20 8.80 9.05 8 599.4 32
TSBNb1 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.20 10.50 9 416.8 5
TSBNb2 10.00 11.00 10.00 -1.00 9.50 11.00 1 411.7 2
TSBNb4 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.02 10.20 1 037.1 1
TSBNb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 -0.20 10.00 10.52 273.9 1
TSSMb1 8.88 9.50 9.05 -0.25 8.80 9.50 3 990.1 8
TXBNb2 9.50 9.50 9.50 +0.80 8.70 11.00 1.4 1
TXBNb3 8.50 10.54 10.54 +2.04 8.50 10.54 3 155.0 3
UKPFb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 9.99 12.50 22.6 1
VITAb4 9.20 11.50 10.44 -1.03 8.80 11.80 2 231.0 11
------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- --------
77 219 255.3 351
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Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - November 2006. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence 9old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at see more
[2007-01-11]