ANALYSIS: As of January 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with servicing totaled KZT1,116.6 bn. or $8,792.1 m.
/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 9, 06/ - As of January 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,116.6 bn., or $8,792.1 m. at the rate of KZT127.00 per dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was registered for the period from October to December of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from January to December of 2006.
Within December 1-31 of 2006 the total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT178.3 bn. (+19.0%), in dollar equivalent - by 1,460.3 m. (+19.9%). Similar indicators of debt change in November of 2006 were plus KZT108.9 bn. (+13.1%) or $842.8 m. (+13.0%).
Following table contains detailed information.
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Amount and structure of debt
----------------------------- Change
as of for the
*Currency of Dec 31, 06 as of period
------------- ------------------ Nov 30, 06 ----------------
Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT %
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
National Bank KZT KZT 535.010 47.9 359.569 +175,440.5 +48.8
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Ministry of Finance 577.216 51.7 574.301 +2,914.9 +0.5
incl. face value 422.656 37.9 420.145 +2,511.0 +0.6
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 378.206 33.9 375.352 +2,854.0 +0.8
also, euronotes USD USD 44.450 4.0 44.793 -343.0 -0.8
incl. servicing 154.561 13.8 154.157 +403.9 +0.3
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 152.088 13.6 151.665 +423.0 +0.3
also, euronotes USD USD 2.473 0.2 2.492 -19.1 -0.8
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Municipals USD KZT 4.369 0.4 4.450 -81.2 -1.8
incl. face value USD KZT 3.958 0.4 3.989 -30.5 -0.8
incl. servicing USD KZT 0.411 0.0 0.461 -50.7 -11.0
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.160 0.1 1.216 -56.4 -4.6
also, face value USD KZT 1.112 0.1 1.121 -8.6 -0.8
also, servicing USD KZT 0.047 0.004 0.095 -47.9 -50.2
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 3.209 0.3 3.234 -24.8 -0.8
akimat
also, face value USD KZT 2.846 0.3 2.868 -22.0 -0.8
also, servicing USD KZT 0.363 0.03 0.366 -2.8 -0.8
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
TOTAL 1,116.595 100.0 938.321 +178,274.2 +19.0
incl. face value 961.624 86.1 783.703 +177,921.0 +22.7
incl. servicing 154.971 13.9 154.618 +353.2 +0.2
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 1,069.672 95.8 891.036 +178,636.3 +20.0
also, face value KZT KZT 917.174 82.1 738.910 +178,264.0 +24.1
also, servicing KZT KZT 152.499 13.7 152.127 +372.3 +0.2
------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. external debt USD USD 46.923 4.2 47.285 -362.1 -0.8
also, face value USD USD 44.450 4.0 44.793 -343.0 -0.8
also, servicing USD USD 2.473 0.2 2.492 -19.1 -0.8
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*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
Equivalents as of December 31, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT127.00 per dollar, as of November 30, 06 - at KZT127.98. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.
Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows.
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Amount and structure of debt
---------------------------- Change
as of for the
*Currency of Dec 31, 06 as of period
------------- ----------------- Nov 30, 06 ------------------
Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
National Bank KZT KZT 4,212.7 47.9 2,809.6 +1,403,101.7 +49.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
Ministry of Finance 4,545.0 51.7 4,487.4 +57,579.4 +1.3
incl. face value 3,328.0 37.9 3,282.9 +45,104.2 +1.4
also, domestic GS KZT, 2,978.0 33.9
USD KZT 2,932.9 +45,104.2 +1.5
also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 4.0 350.0 0 0
incl. servicing 1,217.0 13.8 1,204.5 +12,475.2 +1.0
also, domestic GS KZT, 1,197.5 13.6
USD KZT 1,185.1 +12,475.2 +1.1
also, euronotes USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
Municipals USD KZT 34.40 0.4 34.8 -371.2 -1.1
incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.4 31.2 0 0
incl. servicing USD KZT 3.2 0.0 3.6 -371.2 -10.3
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
incl. Astana USD KZT 9.1 0.1 9.5 -371.2 -3.9
akimat
also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 8.8 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 0.373 0.004 0.7 -371.2 -49.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
incl. Atyrau USD KZT 25.3 0.3 25.3 0 0
region akimat
also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.3 22.4 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 2.9 0.03 2.9 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
TOTAL 8,792.1 100.0 7,331.8 +1,460,310.0 +19.9
incl. face value 7,571.8 86.1 6,123.6 +1,448,205.9 +23.6
incl. servicing 1,220.2 13.9 1,208.1 +12,104.0 +1.0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 8,422.6 95.8 6,962.3 +1,460,310.0 +21.0
also, face value KZT KZT 7,221.8 82.1 5,773.6 +1,448,205.9 +25.1
also, servicing KZT KZT 1,200.8 13.7 1,188.7 +12,104.0 +1.0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ -----
incl. external debt USD USD 369.5 4.2 369.5 0 0
also, face value USD USD 350.0 4.0 350.0 0 0
also, servicing USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0
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*USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed
in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of
tenge to US dollar.
According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in December by amounts of offering was KZT656,032.9 m. (in November - KZT358,416.1 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT482,907.4 (KZT276,312.6 m.). December net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was plus KZT173,125.5 m. Corresponding index in November was plus KZT82,103.5 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed).
In December the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT2,945.0 m. (in November - KZT14,758.0 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT564.9 m. (in November - KZT6,575.3 m.). December net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT2,380.1 m. (in November - plus KZT8,182.7 m.).
Total December net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT175,458.1 m. Similar indicator of November - plus KZT90,164.7 m.
The given data lets to affirm that in the analyzed month National Bank was more intensively sterilizing the market through issuing of notes due to abundant tenge liquidity then in November. Previously, IRBIS analysts are disposed to explain with the meaningful extent of "over-purchase' of US dollar on the local market. Prolonged simulated support of the dollar price by the National bank led to necessity to purchase the big volume of the American currency by the head bank on KASE from second tier banks and their clients. Given tenge through this operation must have been taken back to correspondent accounts of the National bank. Judging on the fact that during last week of year 2006 the National bank held two additional auctions to offer notes, in addition the offering were executed by the maximal profitability of that year, achievement of the planned volume of money aggregates at closing 2006 seemed to be vital for the regulator. By the same reason the National bank was obliged to "opened" US dollar market downwards in the middle of December. It allowed to purchase dollars in order to regulate the speed of tenge strengthening at lower price and, consequently, it resulted in decrease of the volume of tenge borrowing while selling notes at the auctions.
The Ministry of finance could not help the National bank to sterilize the market from abundant tenge in December inspite of the effort to be undertaken to borrow funds through MEKAM selling. Toughening of money- credit policy by the National bank resulted in growth of rates almost in all sectors of the financial market in last December. This factor made potential MEKAM more compliant at the auctions of the Ministry of finance (especially banks). Investors speculated at primary offerings for cutting bonds price, which conflicted with the interest of the Ministry of finance in conditions budget surplus. As a result the attempt to get the planned volume of funds at the appropriate price wile MEKAM offering failed in December.
IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty).
[2007-01-09]