ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in November 2006 had strengthened the optimism of its participants

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 13, 06/ - In November 2006 761 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT53,326.0 m. or $416.7 m. according to the current rate on dates of making deals. The specified amount is 71.0% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in October - 44.1%) and 2.0% of the entire month exchange's turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in November and October of year 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------- Trend Nov Oct Nov 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 Oct 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 416,729.0 212,480.3 +96.1% Trades volume, m KZT 53,326.0 27,130.9 +96.6% Including on offerings, th. USD 0 0 0 including on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 0 Number of deals 208,190.3 0 Х Number of instruments, involved in deals 26,644.2 0 Х Stake of nego deals (number), % 761.0 751.0 +1.3% Stake of nego deals (volume), % 39 43 -9.3% Part of pension assets, % on gross 28.8 26.4 +2.2,pp Number of exchange's members, 68.8 68.9 -50.0,pp who made deals Market concentration, %* 25.9 8.2 +17.7,pp --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) Almost half volume of deals in this sector in November came on two deals on GB_KZMS, made in the frames of signing on the given shares, conducted by Daughter organization of the joint stock company Bank TuranAlem TuranAlem Securities (Almaty) on November 14-16. Without consideration of the named deals the volume of purchase-sale of shares in the analyzing month decreased by 3,941.5 th. US dollars or KZT449.1 m., which totals 1.9% in dollar expression and 1.7% in tenge. The deals named above had sufficiently influenced on indicator of market concentration and stake of direct deals (deals on signing receive on the exchange the status of direct). Without their consideration the concentration of the market in November will total 58.9%, stake of direct deals in quantitative expression - 28.6%, in volumetric - 37.6%. By the totals of November 67% of shares involved in deals were characterized by growth of average weighted day prices, 26% - fall, 5% - remained unchanged, prices of GB_KZMS (2%) were nothing to compare with. Corresponding indicators of October - 42%, 44%, 12%, 2%. Positive change of shares' prices in November were observed in the range from 0.5% (DAMU to 572.5% (UTMKp), negative - from 4.6% (ORDBp) to 28.6% (TSBNp). As a whole the November market had justified the expectations of IRBIS's analysts, connected to growth of prices of the traded instruments. The positive dynamics was shown practically by all traditional favorites of the market, which lead to exit of KASE_Shares index from the horizontal channel of consolidation to the up and its expressed orientation to the further growth (tables below). The most strong influence on dynamics of KASE_Shares had impacted: global offering of common shares in London in form of GDR of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC; offering on the local market among the existing shareholders of Kazkommertsbank JSC of the new common share of the bank, passing on the background of growth of price of depositary receipts of this financial institution on the London stock exchange (LSE); growth of price of common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC on the local opened market and GDR of the company on LSE under influence of recommendations of Merrill Lynch; the common optimism of market participants, expected in December the repetition of "price boom" on Kazakhstan shares' market. To all appearances, the mentioned optimism is quite founded. It is caused by successful offerings of our companies abroad, positive results of activities of majority of issuers of shares by results of 9 months of the current year, and significantly grown interest to Kazakhstan market of shares form investors of all categories. Except this, it is impossible not to note the attention of powers to stock market, which is also positively reflects on expectations of investors. Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in November 2006, are given below. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on November 30 2006 (basis actual/365) -------------------------------------------------------- Change: --------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------- ------ For previous 30 days +18.1 +220.0 Since the beginning of the current year +222.8 +244.2 (since January 1, 06) For the last 365 days (year) +307.1 +307.1 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 Since the beginning of year 2004 +1365.2 +468.3 -------------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in November of year 2006 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT ---------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Oct 31, 06 33,535.5 1,767.19 18,379.5 2,349.6 44 Nov 1, 06 33,603.6 1,778.56 6,892.4 881.1 22 Nov 2, 06 34,034.6 1,773.10 1,927.2 246.4 29 Nov 3, 06 38,251.9 1,868.46 1,768.0 226.2 29 Nov 6, 06 38,289.2 1,765.28 3,931.1 503.0 26 Nov 7, 06 38,010.5 1,847.75 5,918.7 757.2 41 Nov 8, 06 37,408.3 1,806.52 3,523.0 450.6 25 Nov 9, 06 37,814.6 1,805.27 4,999.4 639.4 28 Nov 10, 06 36,384.2 1,819.86 4,941.1 631.7 34 Nov 13, 06 36,805.7 1,802.65 3,828.9 489.5 27 Nov 14, 06 37,088.4 1,875.44 13,174.8 1,685.1 47 Nov 15, 06 37,060.1 1,813.25 7,439.4 951.6 33 Nov 16, 06 35,908.8 1,821.88 4,377.8 560.3 25 Nov 17, 06 36,305.9 1,878.62 295,976.1 37,879.0 46 Nov 20, 06 35,837.0 1,867.06 672.2 86.0 28 Nov 21, 06 36,287.7 1,909.00 7,154.1 915.1 23 Nov 22, 06 37,836.7 1,987.11 9,807.1 1,254.5 62 Nov 23, 06 38,781.4 2,016.38 2,785.1 356.3 47 Nov 24, 06 37,553.0 2,021.37 11,703.8 1,497.4 43 Nov 27, 06 38,879.0 1,970.82 2,331.9 298.4 40 Nov 28, 06 39,063.0 1,966.36 7,271.9 930.6 29 Nov 29, 06 38,458.4 1,972.77 7,735.8 990.0 35 Nov 30, 06 39,701.9 2,086.78 8,569.4 1,096.7 42 ---------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +6,166.4 +319.59 +18.4 +18.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in November 2006 ----------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 42 +1 29 +1 B 48 0 37 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 90 +1 65 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 94 +1 68 +1 ----------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official list of "A" category; "В" - official list of "B" category; "А+В" - official list; to the end of month, changes per month. Results of trades in shares on KASE in November 2006 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: ----------------------------------------------------------- on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ----------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,800.00 2,800.00 2,800.00 +7.7 100.00 2,800.00 218.8 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- AMGZp 43,509.80 43,509.80 43,509.80 +17.6 16,150.00 75,000.00 131.6 3 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBN 40,000.00 49,014.70 48,000.00 +17.1 11,000.00 49,014.70 3,398.5 17 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBNp1 10,000.00 13,900.00 13,900.00 +6.9 10,000.00 16,900.00 1,611.8 8 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASFI 8,100.00 10,250.00 10,250.00 1,500.03 11,500.00 5.0 3 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFB 7,500.00 10,042.79 9,200.00 +21.1 1,650.00 15,710.00 9,112.3 86 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFBp8 1,500.00 1,900.00 1,900.00 +1.1 1,085.00 4,150.00 11,945.5 56 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- AZNO 9,200.00 9,200.00 9,200.00 0 9,200.00 16,000.00 2,614.7 2 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- BTAS 72,460.00 125,000.00 100,000.00 +36.1 23,000.00 190,000.00 6,188.6 20 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- CCBN 850.00 1,450.00 1,400.00 +11.8 220.00 2,400.00 4,788.9 17 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- CSBN 3,381.82 4,700.00 3,750.00 -7.4 350.00 4,700.00 3,287.5 36 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- DAMU 1,000.50 1,000.50 1,000.50 0 1,000.00 1,000.50 116.5 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- GB_KZMS 2,966.16 2,966.16 2,966.16 2,966.16 2,966.16 208,190.5 2 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- GLOT 7,500.00 7,500.00 7,500.00 +36.4 1,500.00 7,500.00 8.1 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- HSBK 255.00 440.00 440.00 +63.0 135.00 440.00 311.6 46 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KIBN 156.00 193.09 156.00 +4.0 150.00 230.00 1,229.7 2 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGB 995.00 1,490.00 1,300.00 +30.7 250.00 1,800.00 21,058.0 97 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGBp 225.00 280.00 255.00 +2.0 100.00 600.00 4,631.0 24 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZCR 25,000.00 25,000.00 25,000.00 0 1.00 50,000.00 48.9 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZDK 1,000.50 1,000.50 1,000.50 1,000.00 1,000.50 116.5 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTC 14,999.99 21,000.00 16,000.01 -5.9 1,450.00 21,000.00 4,877.9 52 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTK 28,000.00 37,000.00 37,000.00 +27.6 15,012.00 50,000.00 541.4 17 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTKp 8,950.00 9,500.00 9,500.00 +2.2 6,900.00 26,000.00 116.6 7 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZZN 5,500.00 8,250.00 6,500.00 +18.2 3,650.00 18,500.00 169.5 21 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- MMGZp 14,300.00 16,779.00 14,300.00 -1.4 1,050.00 21,250.00 22.4 4 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBN 41,500.00 46,000.00 46,000.00 25,650.00 62,160.00 28.9 4 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBNp6 32,654.00 40,000.00 35,777.00 +5.2 22,000.00 40,000.00 1,763.6 35 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ORDB 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 +42.9 2,700.00 4,400.00 0.0 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ORDBp 2,100.00 2,400.00 2,100.00 -4.5 1,700.00 2,400.00 783.6 4 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- PDES 1,040.00 1,060.00 1,040.00 +4.0 655.00 14,325.00 279.2 6 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- RDGZ 11,207.52 15,400.00 14,300.00 +26.5 11,163.39 15,650.00 101,762.8 90 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ROSA 570.01 800.00 570.01 -10.9 570.01 800.00 2,398.4 7 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBN 3,047.67 4,400.00 3,800.00 +26.7 811.00 4,855.00 7,415.9 16 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBNp 785.95 1,300.00 801.10 -27.5 785.95 1,325.00 2,226.9 22 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- TMLZ 5,462.27 5,523.91 5,523.91 +0.3 4,000.00 6,472.22 3,473.8 5 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBN 1,610.00 2,250.00 1,618.00 -18.7 1,000.00 2,550.00 5,709.4 24 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBNp 1,500.00 2,200.00 1,500.00 -28.6 1,000.00 2,200.00 2,902.1 16 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- UTMK 26,684.21 26,684.21 26,684.21 5,250.00 38,250.00 12.7 1 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- UTMKp 9,100.00 14,590.94 13,500.00 +575.0 100.00 29,000.00 3,230.2 5 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- 39 416,729.3 761 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: In case of deals absence for the period (volume = 0), it is specified the last price of resulting trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (October 1 - 31, 2006). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of Nov 30, 06: as of Oct 30, 06: Change: Short or ------------------------- ------------------ --------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- taliza- of the compa- si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, company ti- tion, ti- tion, compa- tion, % (all - JSC) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points --------------- --- ------- ------------- --- ------- ------ -------- ------ Exploration Production 1 7,846.2 19.76 2 6,207.0 18.51 +1,639.2 +1.25 KazMunayGas CNPC-Aktobe- munaygas 2 6,641.0 16.73 1 6,648.3 19.82 -7.3 -3.09 Kazkommertsbank 3 4,086.4 10.29 3 3,184.6 9.50 +901.8 +0.79 Bank TuranAlem 4 3,559.9 8.97 4 2,619.4 7.81 +940.5 +1.16 Halyk bank 5 3,314.3 8.35 6 2,093.1 6.24 +1,221.2 +2.11 Kazakhtelecom 6 3,187.8 8.03 5 2,507.1 7.48 +680.7 +0.55 ATFBank 7 1,474.8 3.71 8 1,229.1 3.67 +245.7 +0.04 TNC Kazchrome 8 1,402.1 3.53 7 1,403.7 4.19 -1.6 -0.66 Alliance-bank 9 1,260.2 3.17 10 1,075.4 3.21 +184.8 -0.04 Alluminium of 10 1,162.5 2.93 9 1,080.9 3.22 +81.6 -0.29 Kazakhstan ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of November 30, 2006 was $39,701.9 m. There were 90 shares of 65 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2006-12-13]