ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in October 2006 pleased participants primarily with expectancies for future increase of prices

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 10, 06/ - In October 2006 751 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT27,130.9 m. or $212.5 m. according to the current rate on dates of making deals. The specified amount is 44.1% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in September - 48.4%) and 1.0% of the entire month exchange's turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in October and September of year 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: ------------------- Trend Oct Sep Oct 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 Sep 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 212,480.3 158,605.6 +34.0% Trades volume, m KZT 27,130.9 20,027.5 +35.5% Including on offerings, th. USD 0 0 X including on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 X Number of deals 751 531 +41.4% Number of instruments, involved in deals 43 43 0 Stake of nego deals (number), % 26.4 20.7 +5.7 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 68.9 76.1 -7.2 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 8.2 12.0 -3.8 pp Number of exchange's members, 36 33 +9.1% who made deals Market concentration, %* 58.2 75.4 -17.2 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) Primary increase of volume of deals in the analyzed data was provided by the opening of trades on KASE in common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC (RDGZ). Exactly with them the biggest number of deals were concluded, and exactly they controlled the biggest volume of operations (see the last table). But this instrument did not justify hopes of exchangers in terms of liquidity. Trades in shares at the secondary market of KASE were opened on October 4. During the next several days RDGZ truly were the most liquid instrument in the corresponding sector of the exchange market. However, the second redistribution of shares, at least its first phase, ended much faster than it was expected. After October 12 volume of deals on RDGZ abruptly decreased, and single, primarily contractual transactions were conducted on the exchange floor. Activity of RDGZ trades in the first week was caused by the high price of shares on the open market of KASE, which provoked a particular part of holders to fix the profit on price difference, arising with respect to the price of IPO. This speculative potential of a security was exhausted fast enough. Later on traditional Kazakhstan factors, such as market narrowness, relative to small number of participants on it and conservatism of pension funds, on portfolios of which a substantial stake of shares, offered in Kazakhstan within the frameworks of IPO, had a negative effect on the level of share liquidity. Moreover, potential of price arbitration between the London stock exchange (LSE) and KASE has abruptly decreased. Common shares of Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGB) - traditional favorite for recent time - occurred on the second place on liquidity in October. The interest in them has substantially increased within the frameworks of an operation, being prepared by the issuer, on sale of common shares that are already available for shareholders in the form of GDR on LSE (with passing of listing procedure on this exchange) and subsequent offering of new shares at the local market in the course of realization of the pre-emption right by shareholders. By results of October 42% of share denominations, involved in deals, were characterized by the growth of the weighted average day prices, 44% by the fall, 12% by constant rate, there was nothing to compare with prices of RDGZ (2%). Corresponding indicators of September - 37%, 51%, 12%, 0%. Positive change of share prices in October was observed in range from 0.1% (KIBN) to 31.3% (KZTC) and on average totaled 11.3%, negative - from 0.001% (KZTCp) to 93.1% (UTMKp), on average - 21.8%. RDGZ demonstrated the more interesting price dynamic in October, as two price-forming systems were operating on the stock exchange, actually. Weighted average day prices of a security varied from KZT11,300.00 to KZT12,589.09 per a share, at that, by the results of the month, their rate in this expression fell by 8.3%. According to nego deals, RDGZ rate was registered at the range of KZT11,214.61 - 15, 400.00, and by the results of the month displayed the augmentation by 37.3%. In connection with that, IRBIS analysts had an impression, which had not been confirmed by any results of the analysis, that during reporting month the purchase was running on the open market relative to small holdings of RDGZ with the following their consolidation and reselling as nego deals at higher price to final purchasers, interests of which had nothing to do with getting the speculative profit only. In all, it is noteworthy that October market of shares on KASE could bring satisfaction to its actors only with perspective to have better future, but not with real growth of traded instruments on it. Index KASE_Shares did not show the positive trend. There was no a single share in the number of shares with the grown price, which could be responsive to such called phenomenon of the price boom, being observed on the market within the period from December 2005 to the end of April 2006. At the same time, events, which took place in the market and around it, allow to hope for getting the serious growth in the price of these shares. KKGB, more possibly, will be found the leaders that time. Tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in October 2006, are given below. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on October 31 2006 (basis actual/365) ------------------------------------------------------- Change: --------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- -------- ------ For previous 30 days -1.4 -16.8 Since the beginning of the current year +173.4 +208.9 (since January 1, 06) For the last 365 days (year) +305.6 +305.6 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 Since the beginning of year 2004 +1,140.8 +402.7 ------------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in October of year 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT ---------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Sep 29, 06 28,698.2 1,791.99 1,718.9 218.7 17 Oct 2, 06 29,324.5 1,834.53 5,103.3 649.3 40 Oct 3, 06 30,658.5 1,742.83 8,902.7 1,133.1 32 Oct 4, 06 35,242.4 1,766.33 4,729.2 602.4 43 Oct 5, 06 34,513.8 1,873.35 18,230.8 2,323.3 102 Oct 6, 06 34,659.0 1,871.12 31,815.7 4,056.2 81 Oct 9, 06 34,858.2 1,762.59 4,261.0 543.7 38 Oct 10, 06 34,602.0 1,771.38 6,317.0 806.5 27 Oct 11, 06 36,406.0 1,912.52 8,538.5 1,090.8 35 Oct 12, 06 38,682.8 1,794.31 5,350.7 683.6 37 Oct 13, 06 36,253.8 1,881.19 5,686.4 726.5 32 Oct 16, 06 34,791.6 1,899.37 2,912.5 372.1 34 Oct 17, 06 34,279.4 1,863.66 1,349.1 172.4 20 Oct 18, 06 32,365.2 1,818.00 4,979.9 636.5 45 Oct 19, 06 31,947.4 1,759.98 1,664.5 212.8 12 Oct 20, 06 33,875.9 1,845.26 1,281.6 163.8 31 Oct 23, 06 32,029.2 1,751.06 23,096.4 2,953.1 14 Oct 24, 06 32,610.6 1,831.46 862.1 110.2 16 Oct 26, 06 32,454.8 1,740.59 418.3 53.5 9 Oct 27, 06 33,500.2 1,739.74 32,987.7 4,217.5 44 Oct 30, 06 35,460.4 1,722.43 25,613.3 3,273.9 15 Oct 31, 06 33,535.5 1,767.19 18,379.5 2,349.6 44 ---------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend 4,837.3 -24.80 +16.9% -1.38% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in October 2006 ------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 41 -2 28 -1 B 48 +6 37 +4 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 89 +4 64 +3 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 93 +4 67 +3 ------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official list of "A" category; "В" - official list of "B" category; "А+В" - official list; to the end of month, changes per month. Results of trades in shares on KASE in October 2006 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: --------------------------------------------------------- on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- --------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,000.00 2,600.00 2,600.00 +30.0 100.00 2,800.00 488.7 9 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- AMGZ 80,881.13 101,000.00 95,000.00 -4.0 35,250.00 130,000.00 156.7 7 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- AMGZp 37,000.00 75,000.00 37,000.00 +20.6 16,150.00 75,000.00 231.5 4 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBN 39,890.00 41,000.00 41,000.00 +2.5 11,000.00 47,500.00 177.3 9 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ASBNp1 13,000.00 13,350.00 13,000.00 +4.4 12,450.00 16,900.00 325.4 5 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFB 7,000.00 9,500.00 7,600.00 +1.3 1,103.00 15,710.00 14,406.2 56 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ATFBp8 1,550.00 4,150.00 1,880.00 -14.5 1,085.00 4,150.00 10,508.9 16 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- AZNO 9,200.00 9,200.00 9,200.00 9,200.00 16,000.00 2,507.5 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- BTAS 73,500.00 137,500.00 73,500.00 -26.5 20,145.60 190,000.00 9,882.2 11 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CCBN 363.00 1,252.50 1,252.50 +8.9 201.00 2,400.00 5,763.4 24 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- CSBN 3,500.00 4,050.00 4,050.00 +15.7 265.00 4,050.00 759.0 9 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- DAMU 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 0 1,000.00 1,000.00 25.0 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- GLOT 5,500.00 6,000.00 5,500.00 0 1,500.00 6,000.00 25.4 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- HSBK 250.70 300.00 270.00 0 68.00 420.00 188.4 15 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KIBN 150.00 200.00 150.01 0 150.00 230.00 28.4 6 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGB 800.00 1,490.00 995.00 -7.9 250.00 1,800.00 1,808.5 98 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KKGBp 150.01 335.00 250.00 -21.7 100.00 600.00 14,461.8 45 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZCR 1.00 25,000.00 25,000.00 -16.7 1.00 50,000.00 50.9 3 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZIS 35,000.00 38,000.00 35,000.00 +25.0 15,750.00 82,500.00 37,264.6 3 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTC 10,000.00 20,000.00 17,000.00 1,450.00 20,000.00 602.5 48 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTCp 1,600.00 1,601.00 1,600.00 0 1,600.00 9,000.00 12.5 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTK 27,245.00 31,000.00 29,000.00 -1.7 9,137.00 50,000.00 707.5 10 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZTKp 9,000.00 11,500.00 9,300.00 -7.0 6,712.00 26,000.00 235.6 11 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- KZZN 5,500.00 10,055.00 5,500.00 -35.3 3,600.00 18,500.00 360.1 15 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- MMGZp 13,800.00 17,650.00 14,500.00 -3.3 1,000.00 21,250.00 1,451.4 6 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- NFBN 1,390.00 1,600.00 1,390.00 -20.1 1,321.00 1,739.60 3,506.1 12 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- NRBNp6 27,000.00 35,000.00 34,000.00 +1.5 22,000.00 40,000.00 2,061.6 20 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ORDB 2,800.00 4,001.00 2,800.00 -36.4 2,000.00 4,400.00 1,229.9 5 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ORDBp 2,200.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 +4.7 1,700.00 2,400.00 237.5 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- PDES 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 +3.1 655.00 14,325.00 8.6 1 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- PRIN 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 54.7 1 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- RAHT 600.00 1,285.00 600.00 -82.9 206.00 3,500.00 59.1 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- RDGZ 11,163.39 15,400.00 11,300.00 11,163.39 15,400.00 67,281.3 204 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ROSA 639.43 641.00 639.43 600.00 680.69 2,186.5 7 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBN 3,000.00 3,900.00 3,000.00 0 811.00 4,855.00 19,112.5 7 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TEBNp 1,041.66 1,325.00 1,104.22 +1.1 1,000.00 1,325.00 5,378.4 10 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TMLZ 5,505.86 5,505.86 5,505.86 4,000.00 6,472.22 4,259.0 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBN 1,300.00 1,990.00 1,990.00 +10.6 1,000.00 2,550.00 857.2 7 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- TSBNp 1,900.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 +10.5 1,000.00 2,110.00 3,058.5 6 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- UTMKp 2,000.00 2,100.00 2,000.00 -93.1 100.00 29,000.00 20.5 2 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- VTBN 289.99 320.00 320.00 +10.3 225.00 530.00 163.7 19 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- VTBNp 195.00 325.00 195.00 -26.4 195.00 375.00 200.9 25 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- ZERD 1.40 1.40 1.40 +27.3 0.80 1.40 374.6 1 ------ --------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ---- 54 212,480.3 751 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: In case of deals absence for the period (volume = 0), it is specified the last price of resulting trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (September 1 - 30, 2006). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of Oct 31, 06: as of Sep 29, 06: Change: Short or ------------------------- ------------------ -------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- taliza- of the compa- si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, company ti- tion, ti- tion, compa- tion, % (all - JSC) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points ------------------- --- ------- ------------- --- ------- ------ ------- ------ CNPC-Aktobe- 1 6648.3 19.82 1 6962.0 24.26 -313.7 -4.44 munaygas Exploration Produc- tion KazMunayGaz 2 6207.0 18.51 - 0 0 X X Kazkommertsbank 3 3184.6 9.50 3 3520.6 12.27 -336.0 -2.77 Bank TuranAlem 4 2619.4 7.81 2 3581.2 12.48 -961.8 -4.67 Kazakhtelecom 5 2507.1 7.48 4 2564.5 8.94 -57.4 -1.46 Halyk bank 6 2093.1 6.24 5 2056.5 7.17 +36.6 -0.93 TNC Kazchrome 7 1403.7 4.19 6 1691.4 5.89 -287.7 -1.70 ATFBank 8 1229.1 3.67 8 1118.3 3.90 +110.8 -0.23 Alluminium of 9 1080.9 3.22 10 836.5 2.91 +244.4 +0.31 Kazakhstan Alliance-bank 10 1075.4 3.21 9 903.8 3.15 +171.6 +0.06 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of October 31, 2006 was $33,535.5 m. There were 89 shares of 64 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2006-11-10]