ANALYSIS: In September 2006 repo rates on KASE were growing on heightened demand of banks for tenge

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, Adrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 06/ - In September 2005 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in sector of repo operations 5,913 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,517.2 bn. or USD12,011.7 m. at current rate on dates of bargaining, which is 73.2% from the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in August 2006 - 74.3%). Compared to August 2006 volume of operations decreased by KZT37.5 bn. ($584.5 m.) or by 2.4% (by 4.6% in dollar). Relative to September 2005 volume of operations increased by KZT972.9 bn. ($7,957.3 m.) or 2.8 times (3.0 times in dollar). Stake of exchange's turnover in total volume of repo deals in Kazakhstan market in September on comparable operations totaled 96.2%, in August of 2006 - 97.2%. Structure of repo market turnover on KASE in September was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 91.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,382.8 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 73.9% (KZT1,121.8 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 17.2% (KZT261.0 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 8.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT134.4 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.6% (KZT23.8 bn.), deals in CS - 7.3% (KZT110.6 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in August of 2006 was as follows: autorepo - 92.0% (GS - 75.7%; CS - 16.3%); repo by nego method - 8.0% (GS - 3.3%; CS - 4.7%). As IRBIS specialists assumed, September on repo market of KASE happened to be very active. For the whole history of existence of exchange on volume of deals it yielded only to the previous month. It was quite easy to forecast another peculiarity of the month - a substantial growth of value of the most short money. Both this and the other was caused by the action of one factor - quick growth of US dollar rate to tenge at record high volumes of banking operations on KASE with the American dollar. High demand for dollar (including speculative) during the whole September negatively affected the short-term liquidity of STB, which highly demanded tenge. Judging by first days of October, state of repo market this month is unlikely to change. Market's activity and key repo rates will remain on it, most probably, on September level. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in September 2006 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given on actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (7.3% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 73.9% of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (currency, on first m. ber of market, weighted млн сде- рынка, term, days) deal KZT deals % average тенге лок % ----------- -------- ---- ------ ------- -------- --------- ----- -------- KZT_001 1.00 1.00 8.00 2.00 4.34 471,891.4 1620 85.60 KZT_002 3.00 2.00 7.00 2.50 4.60 23,855.0 41 4.33 KZT_003 3.00 3.00 6.00 5.00 3.21 14,257.0 23 2.59 KZT_007 3.50 3.00 6.00 6.00 3.78 20,507.0 55 3.72 KZT_014 5.00 3.50 5.00 3.90 4.06 19,391.0 36 3.52 KZT_028 5.00 4.00 6.00 4.20 4.97 1,370.0 26 0.25 ----------- -------- ---- ------ ------- -------- --------- ----- -------- TOTAL 551,271.4 1,801 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 17.2% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of market, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- ASBN_007 6.00 10.0 1 0.01 ASBNb3_001 5.00 4.30 5.50 4.30 4.91 375.0 10 0.29 ASBNb3_003 8.00 170.0 1 0.13 ASBNb4_001 5.50 4.30 6.00 6.00 5.29 526.0 9 0.41 ASBNb4_003 8.00 6.50 8.00 6.50 6.85 128.0 3 0.10 ASBNp1_001 4.00 3.0 1 0.002 ASBNp1_007 8.00 6.00 8.00 8.00 7.99 1,355.0 4 1.05 ASBNp1_030 4.00 100.0 1 0.08 ASFI_030 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 8,426.0 9 6.54 ASFIb5_001 3.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 4.29 1237.0 2 0.96 ASFIb5_007 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 37.0 2 0.03 ASFIb5_014 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 37.0 2 0.03 ASFIb7_001 3.00 3.00 8.00 4.30 6.14 3,934.0 9 3.05 ASFIb7_003 6.00 300.0 1 0.23 ASFIb7_007 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 102.0 3 0.08 ASFIb7_014 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.44 339.0 2 0.26 ATFB_001 5.00 3.50 6.50 6.50 5.14 4,598.1 24 3.57 ATFB_007 5.50 5.50 7.80 7.80 5.67 202.0 10 0.16 ATFB_014 6.00 5.00 6.20 6.20 5.74 148.0 7 0.11 ATFB_028 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 115.0 2 0.09 ATFB_090 9.00 23.0 1 0.02 ATFBb5_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1,600.0 8 1.24 ATFBp8_001 6.50 95.0 1 0.07 ATFBp8_007 8.00 173.0 1 0.13 BTAIb10028 5.80 770.0 1 0.60 BTAS_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 27,574.1 42 21.40 BTAS_007 5.50 5.50 8.00 7.50 7.53 4,659.4 10 3.62 BTAS_030 7.00 3.00 8.00 7.00 6.96 25,911.7 48 20.11 CCBN_001 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 81.0 2 0.06 CCBN_007 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 97.0 2 0.08 CCBN_030 7.00 175.0 1 0.14 CSBNb4_007 6.00 5.50 6.00 5.50 5.84 40.0 3 0.03 CSBNb5_001 4.00 4.00 6.00 6.00 4.86 655.0 4 0.51 CSBNb5_003 5.50 171.0 1 0.13 EUBNb3_001 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.86 420.0 2 0.33 EUBNb3_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 800.0 4 0.62 EUBNb3_014 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 800.0 4 0.62 KKAGb3_001 5.50 5.50 6.00 5.50 5.69 609.0 4 0.47 KKAGb3_030 4.00 100.0 1 0.08 KKGB_001 6.00 3.50 6.00 6.00 5.13 1,766.0 18 1.37 KKGB_007 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.72 175.0 10 0.14 KKGB_014 5.00 5.00 7.00 6.50 6.15 449.0 7 0.35 KKGB_028 6.00 6.00 8.00 8.00 6.99 324.0 4 0.25 KKGB_090 8.50 8.00 8.50 8.00 8.04 655.0 4 0.51 KKGBp_001 5.00 5.00 7.00 7.00 6.15 458.0 9 0.36 KKGBp_003 6.90 55.0 1 0.04 KKGBp_007 5.75 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.60 355.0 4 0.28 KKGBp_014 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 6.02 240.0 4 0.19 KZTC_001 4.50 3.00 7.00 5.00 5.09 8873.0 101 6.89 KZTC_007 5.50 4.50 9.00 5.50 6.60 5,464.2 58 4.24 KZTC_028 8.00 7.10 9.00 9.00 8.16 4,205.1 18 3.26 KZTK_007 6.00 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.89 93.1 6 0.07 KZZN_001 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 5.25 351.0 7 0.27 KZZN_003 6.00 5.75 6.00 5.75 5.89 115.0 2 0.09 NFBNb1_001 6.00 200.0 1 0.16 NRBNb4_001 6.00 4.40 6.20 6.20 4.97 2,095.0 12 1.63 NRBNb4_003 7.00 4.50 7.00 5.50 6.42 413.0 4 0.32 NRBNb4_007 7.00 5.50 7.00 5.50 6.61 270.0 2 0.21 NRBNb4_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 830.0 5 0.64 NRBNb5_003 6.00 4.40 8.00 6.25 6.26 3,369.0 7 2.61 NRBNb5_007 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 800.0 2 0.62 NRBNp6_028 6.85 5.00 6.85 5.00 5.63 431.1 11 0.33 ORDB_007 8.00 391.0 1 0.30 ORDB_014 8.00 8.00 11.00 11.00 10.56 352.0 5 0.27 ORDB_090 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 300.0 3 0.23 RGBRb4_001 4.50 4.50 5.50 5.50 5.15 323.0 6 0.25 RGBRb4_007 5.50 5.50 7.25 7.25 6.67 135.0 2 0.10 ROSAb2_007 10.00 231.0 1 0.18 ROSAb2_014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 462.0 2 0.36 TSBNb1_001 6.00 4.40 6.00 5.70 5.27 934.0 8 0.72 TSBNb1_003 5.50 5.50 6.50 6.50 6.18 130.0 2 0.10 TSSMb1_007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 140.0 2 0.11 TXBNb2_028 6.85 26.0 1 0.02 UTMK_030 9.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 8.68 5,067.1 10 3.93 VTBN_001 8.00 4.50 8.00 7.00 7.38 466.0 11 0.36 VTBN_007 4.50 4.50 8.00 5.50 6.14 195.0 12 0.15 VTBN_028 4.00 4.00 8.00 8.00 7.64 220.0 5 0.17 VTBNb3_007 6.00 5.50 8.00 5.50 7.91 501.0 5 0.39 ZIG_b1_028 8.10 100.0 1 0.08 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ -------- TOTAL 128,856.0 617 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.6% of the market ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Stake of repo, on first m. ber of market, weighted m. ber of market, days deal KZT deals % average KZT deals % ------- -------- ---- ------ ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- 32 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 280.0 3 19.76 102 5.10 204.0 1 14.40 103 5.10 204.0 1 14.40 104 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 408.0 2 28.79 105 5.10 204.0 1 14.40 106 5.10 102.0 1 7.20 161 6.00 7.5 1 0.53 162 5.41 7.5 1 0.53 ------- -------- ---- ------ ------- -------- ------- ------ -------- TOTAL 1,417.0 11 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2006-10-05]