ANALYSIS: In August of year 2006 degree of concentration of market of shares on KASE and volume of deals increased greatly

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 12, 06/ - In August of year 2006 496 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo- operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange for a total of KZT14,483.2 m. or $118.9 m. according to the current rate on dates of making deals. The specified amount is 39.1% from the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in July - 27.7%) and 0.7% from the entire month exchange's turnover (0.6%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in August and July of year 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: ------------------ Trend August July August 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 July 2006 -------------------------------------------- --------- -------- -------------- Trades volume, th. USD 118,937.1 69,032.4 +72.3% Trades volume, m KZT 14,483.2 8,156.1 +77.6% including, on maturity, th. USD 0 0 X including, on maturity, m. KZT 0 0 X Number of deals 496 407 +21.9% Number of instruments, involved in deals 32 34 -5.9% Stake of nego deals (number), % 11.9 13.5 -1.6,bp Stake of nego dealsк (volume), % 68.2 47.2 +21.0,bp Part of pension assets, % on gross 10.3 12.0 -1.7,bp Number of exchange's members, who made deals 32 27 +18.5% Market concentration, %* 87.8 53.5 +34.3,bp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out kof the total number of shares titles, included in traded lists of KASE) The given statistics shows the significant activization of exchange market of stake instruments in the last month of summer. But this activization looked as not enough лconstructively", taking into consideration growth of stake of nego deals in the volumetric expression and sudden increase of indicators of market concentration. Per se participants of the trades had concentrated on work with small number of shares. First of all it must be noted KKGB (Kazkommertsbank JSC) to the stake of which it came 26.6% of deals made in the segment in quantitative expression and 14.1% in volumetric expression. Brokers also paid big attention to BTAS (Bank TuranAlem JSC, 9.7% and 65.2% correspondingly), KZZN (KAZZINC JSC, 9.5% and 2.1%), TEBN (Temirbank JSC, 8.1% and 0.9%). It is curious that motivation of trades' participants while working with each of mentioned securities was different. Different were the results of the work done. With the active working out the KKGB in August had won the high potential of bank, proved by the totals of its activity in the first half year of 2006. The average weighted rate of shares for the month had increased by 4.9%, continued the tendency of July (+8.7%). Prices of BTAS in August changed in the wide limits on the background of the known change of shareholder. Also these shares were much re-bought on the speculative movements of traders, as the result they lost 10.7% (July +13.6%). KZZN demonstrated the collapse of rate by 37.5% (July - 0.5%), conditioned by wired intention of issuer to remove its securities from KASE's lists. And TEBN by some reason became to trade on KASE more rare, and their growth in price by 11.1% (July -5.0%) reflected only next working vibration of rate near sacramental 3,500.00 tenge per paper. As a whole by the totals of August by the growth of average weighted day prices were characterized 59% of shares, involved in deals, by fallen - 38%, unchangeable rate - 3%. The corresponding indicators of July - 35%, 56%, 6%. The positive change of prices for shares in August was observed in the diaposon of 1.0% (RAHT) to 78.0% (TXBN), in average 21.0%, negative - from 0.5% (AMGZp) to 46.7% (UTMKp), in average - 23.1%. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on August 31 2006 (basis actual/365) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change: ----------------- Period in % in % APR ------------------------------------------------------------- -------- -------- For previous 30 days +7.3 +88.7 Since the beginning of the current year (since January 1, 06) +178.0 +268.5 For the last 365 days (year) +337.2 +337.2 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 Since the beginning of year 2004 +1 161.7 +435.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange's market of purchase and sales of shares in August of year 2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Capitalization Volume of Volume of Number of market, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT ------------- -------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- July 31, 06 29,247.1 1,665.34 4,127.0 488.7 22 August 1, 06 29,783.9 1,674.99 5,061.7 600.7 21 August 2, 06 28,245.4 1,664.60 35,836.7 4,267.4 32 August 3, 06 28,756.2 1,639.82 1,092.4 130.5 22 August 4, 06 28,527.5 1,662.63 504.1 60.7 13 August 7,0 6 29,333.4 1,768.69 126.3 15.4 15 August 8, 06 29,333.4 1,694.89 1,610.2 197.0 16 August 9, 06 29,566.2 1,709.41 119.9 14.7 14 August 10, 06 28,501.5 1,760.91 34,287.1 4,201.5 30 August 11, 06 30,362.5 1,824.92 1,066.8 130.8 12 August 14, 06 30,464.1 1,807.01 618.2 75.8 12 August 15, 06 29,477.5 1,748.53 13,711.7 1,681.9 28 August 16, 06 29,239.0 1,692.22 679.3 83.8 20 August 17, 06 29,378.4 1,735.41 3,642.8 451.1 36 August 18, 06 30,455.5 1,848.49 1,126.5 139.6 48 August 21, 06 29,546.5 1,835.65 2,153.1 267.5 42 August 22, 06 27,839.0 1,777.77 309.7 38.6 32 August 23, 06 28,609.2 1,757.88 861.7 107.5 15 August 24, 06 29,314.2 1,797.97 3,896.7 486.5 26 August 25, 06 28,051.0 1,763.69 1,579.7 197.6 12 August 28, 06 28,239.0 1,752.73 35.6 4.5 4 August 29, 06 29,585.6 1,950.73 3,850.6 482.2 19 August 31, 06 29,227.6 1,797.05 6,766.2 847.9 27 ------------- -------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend -19.5 +131.72 -0.1% +7.91% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Thus, by the majority of indicators the stake market in the analyzing month seemed more encouraging then in June. but in the quality expression it did not change, as the issuer's relation did not change to it. Below there are extra tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments of KASE in August 2006. Changes in list of shares trading on KASE, in August of year 2006 ------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ access number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 43 +1 29 +1 B 42 +2 33 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 85 +3 61 +2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 89 +3 64 +2 ------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official list of "A" category; "В" - official list of "B" category; "А+В" - official list; to the end of month, changes per month. Results of trades in shares on KASE in August of year 2006 in sector purchase and sales (including nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: ------------------------------------------------------------- on the last deal for the last 365 days: Volume Num- ----------------- ---------------------- deals, ber Shares change th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,600.00 100.00 2,600.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ALKZp 100.00 80.00 100.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- AMGZ 75,000.02 100,000.00 100,000.00 +33.33 33,000.00 130,000.00 20.2 3 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- AMGZp 37,000.00 48,000.00 45,000.00 -5.02 10,500.00 48,000.00 4,174.0 10 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ASBN 22,000.00 37,000.00 37,000.00 +27.59 11,000.00 47,500.00 75.8 13 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ASBNp1 12,650.00 14,500.00 12,650.00 12,650.00 16,900.00 106.0 4 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ASFI 8,100.00 8,100.00 8,100.00 +8.00 1,100.00 11,500.00 8.3 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ATFB 8,000.00 9,100.00 8,700.00 +12.99 1,103.00 15,710.00 1,558.7 9 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ATFBp 3,050.29 3,050.29 3,050.29 +8.94 1,250.00 3,600.00 685.4 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ATFBp8 2,300.00 2,600.00 2,400.00 -7.69 1,085.00 3,600.00 1,839.0 3 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- AZNO 9,500.00 9,200.01 16,000.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- BTAS 89,000.00 146,250.00 110,000.00 -12.00 20,145.60 190,000.00 77,525.0 48 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- CCBN 1,100.00 1,800.00 1,100.00 +40.66 200.00 2,400.00 152.5 18 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- CHFM 1,188.00 600.00 1,650.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- CSBN 3,105.00 3,310.00 3,105.00 -11.29 184.00 4,000.00 1,999.9 7 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- CSBNp 600.00 200.00 700.01 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- GLOT 6,000.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 1,500.00 6,000.00 8.7 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- HSBK 238.00 320.00 320.00 +23.08 38.00 420.00 85.0 4 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- HSBKp 141.00 141.00 187.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- HSBKp1 173.00 173.00 173.00 169.00 200.00 8.2 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KANT 1,450.00 400.10 1,800.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KIBN 150.03 225.00 160.00 150.00 230.00 31.1 4 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KKGB 710.00 1,199.00 840.88 +12.27 181.00 1,800.00 16,723.4 132 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KKGBp 100.00 600.00 100.00 -64.29 100.00 600.00 931.8 31 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZCR 30,000.00 1,000.00 50,000.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZCRp 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZIS 35,000.00 36,000.00 36,000.00 15,750.00 82,500.00 20.1 3 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZTC 13,125.00 1,450.00 16,000.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZTCp 1,600.00 2,000.00 1,600.00 -42.86 1,600.00 9,000.00 13.6 2 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZTK 24,500.00 34,500.00 31,000.00 +29.17 9,137.00 50,000.00 1,034.3 25 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZTKp 11,000.01 15,000.00 15,000.00 +36.36 6,700.00 26,000.00 89.1 7 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- KZZN 4,510.00 14,500.00 7,500.00 -37.50 3,000.00 18,500.00 2,461.6 47 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- MMGZp 10,000.00 13,700.00 10,000.00 -30.53 1,000.00 21,250.00 43.4 4 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- NFBN 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 +3.45 1,321.00 1,500.00 12.0 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- NRBN 50,109.59 25,650.00 62,160.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- NRBNp6 27,000.00 22,000.00 27,000.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ORDB 4,000.01 2,000.00 4,400.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ORDBp 2,000.00 1,500.00 2,100.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ORNK 2.00 1.00 2.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- PDES 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 +17.65 655.00 14,325.00 8.8 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- RAHT 1,270.00 1,285.00 1,270.00 0 100.00 3,000.00 133.4 2 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ROSA 603.32 575.00 680.69 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- TEBN 2,667.00 4,200.00 4,200.00 +12.00 811.00 4,855.00 1,113.6 40 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- TEBNp 1,147.00 952.00 1,315.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- TSBN 1,800.00 1,000.00 2,550.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- TSBNp 1,150.00 2,110.00 1,600.00 +6.67 1,000.00 2,110.00 5,840.1 22 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- TXBN 30,900.00 100,000.00 55,000.00 30,900.00 100,000.00 20.3 5 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- UTMK 35,000.00 3,435.00 38,250.00 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- UTMKp 2,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 -46.67 1,000.00 4,500.00 20.8 1 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- VTBN 225.00 300.00 300.00 0 225.00 530.00 2,073.2 31 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- VTBNp 270.00 375.00 375.00 +13.98 270.00 375.00 119.7 15 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ZERD 1.00 0.80 1.70 0 0 ------ --------- ---------- ---------- ------ ---------- ----------- --------- ---- 52 118,937.1 496 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: In case of deals absence for the period (volume = 0), it is specified the last price of resulting trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (July 1 - 31, 2006). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of July 31, 06: as of June 30, 06: Change: Short or --------------------- ------------------ -------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- tali- of the si- tali- of the tali- stake, company ti- zation, compa- ti- zation, compa- zation, % (all - JSC) on m. USD ny, % on m. USD ny, % m. USD points ------------------- --- ------- --------- --- ------- ------ ------- ------ SNPC-Aktobemunaygas 1 7138.9 24.4 1 5666.6 19.4 +1472.3 +5.05 Bank TuranAlem 2 3999.0 13.7 2 4809.5 16.4 -810.5 -2.76 Kazakhtelecom 3 2750.2 9.4 4 2251.4 7.7 +498.9 +1.71 Kazkommertsbank 4 2634.7 9.0 3 2684.9 9.2 -50.2 -0.17 Halyk bank 5 2434.2 8.3 5 2139.0 7.3 +295.2 +1.01 JNC Kazchrom 6 1717.0 5.9 7 1817.2 6.2 -100.2 -0.34 ATFBank 7 1308.0 4.5 8 1237.6 4.2 +70.4 +0.24 KAZSYNC 8 1235.5 4.2 6 2092.1 7.1 -856.6 -2.93 Alluminium of 9 1102.6 3.8 9 1166.9 4.0 -64.3 -0.22 Kazakhstan Alliance Bank 10 852.3 2.9 10 678.8 2.3 +173.4 +0.59 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange's market of shares, listed by KASE, and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of August 31, 2006 was $29,227.6 m. There were 85 shares of 61 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2006-09-12]