U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 21, 05/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar according to results of the day. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.
Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Morning Day Evening
Time 10:15-11:00 ALT 11:30-16:00 14:00-18:00
--------------- -------------- -------------
Indicator Value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Opening rate 134.67 +0.47 135.05 +0.51 - -
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Maximum rate 135.12 +0.59 135.70 +0.92 - -
Volume on max. Price 20 -580 300 -25 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Minimum rate 134.67 +0.49 135.04 +0.55 - -
volume on min. Price 10 -190 600 +400 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Closing rate 135.05 +0.52 135.20 +0.52 - -
Weight. aver. rate 135.00 +0.61 135.37 +0.76 - -
Volume of the session 132120 +126845 42010 +18210 0 0
Number of deals 165 +98 133 +19 0 0
Number of participants 20 +3 19 +1 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Best bid* 135.00 +0.50 135.20 +0.52 - -
Best ask* 135.09 +0.54 135.25 +0.54 - -
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 134.93 +0.53 135.13 +0.55 135.12 +0.45
REUTERS Ask* 135.03 +0.53 135.23 +0.55 135.20 +0.45
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* at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the
data of REUTERS
Table of price levels of trading in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms
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Total by results of the day:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
135.70 300 2 300 2 14:19 14:19
135.60 100 1 100 1 14:17 14:17
135.55 10 1 10 1 14:16 14:16
135.50 200 2 200 2 14:12 14:23
135.46 500 1 500 1 14:24 14:24
135.45 23670 38 23670 38 14:22 14:37
135.44 1600 5 1600 5 14:37 14:55
135.40 700 4 700 4 14:06 14:56
135.39 300 3 300 3 14:06 15:08
135.38 600 7 600 7 13:49 15:08
135.37 500 2 500 2 12:37 13:48
135.36 400 4 400 4 12:37 15:10
135.35 700 5 700 5 15:08 15:10
135.34 300 2 300 2 15:07 15:10
135.33 250 2 250 2 15:07 15:10
135.31 50 1 50 1 15:02 15:02
135.30 200 2 200 2 15:02 15:02
135.29 100 1 100 1 15:16 15:16
135.28 300 1 300 1 12:23 12:23
135.27 100 1 100 1 15:16 15:16
135.25 600 2 600 2 12:19 15:16
135.24 105 2 105 2 15:20 15:27
135.23 1105 4 1105 4 15:20 15:23
135.22 1000 1 1000 1 15:24 15:24
135.20 2900 18 2900 18 12:19 15:29
135.19 300 1 300 1 12:19 12:19
135.15 700 2 700 2 12:01 12:19
135.13 780 3 780 3 11:47 12:01
135.12 20 1 740 3 760 4 10:45 11:53
135.10 2300 8 720 4 3020 12 10:44 11:40
135.09 680 3 680 3 11:31 11:40
135.08 300 1 300 1 11:32 11:32
135.05 4380 10 600 2 4980 12 10:41 11:37
135.04 120 2 600 2 720 4 10:41 11:35
135.03 400 3 400 3 10:41 10:41
135.02 350 6 350 6 10:38 10:41
135.01 2180 7 2180 7 10:37 10:39
135.00 113880 68 113880 68 10:34 10:55
134.99 2400 10 2400 10 10:34 10:36
134.97 200 2 200 2 10:34 10:34
134.96 400 5 400 5 10:33 10:34
134.95 910 5 910 5 10:30 10:33
134.94 200 1 200 1 10:30 10:30
134.92 750 5 750 5 10:27 10:29
134.91 300 1 300 1 10:29 10:29
134.90 2860 23 2860 23 10:26 10:28
134.89 300 2 300 2 10:26 10:26
134.82 40 2 40 2 10:25 10:25
134.79 100 1 100 1 10:19 10:19
134.75 10 1 10 1 10:19 10:19
134.73 10 1 10 1 10:18 10:18
134.67 10 1 10 1 10:17 10:17
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 132120 165 42010 133 174130 298 10:17 15:29
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Jun 15, 05 Jun 16, 05 Jun 17, 05 Jun 20, 05 Jun 21, 05 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Offer 24 895 1 655 2 300 4 200 5 000 Bid 8 080 10 610 20 685 13 825 18 800 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Difference -16 815 +8 955 +18 385 +9 625 +13 800 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
The market today demonstrated escalation of dollar demand, which had various natures and verged on exciting. The day brought two records. Volume of exchange operations with USD turned out to be the biggest in the current year. In trades of American currency at KASE in 2005 majority of banks took part. The last circumstance, and also tactics of traders at KASE, say that the market was moved up by importers, who were in a hurry to buy rising currency, and speculators (including, cash currency, growth of demand which is easily forecasted now), and exporters, playing to increase market by growth of offer price.
Alas, National Bank somehow lately reacted to situation. However, this "lateness", in the opinion of IRBIS analysts, was not accidental. The day visually demonstrated that in fight with inflation (money funds, which is not mastered by real sector) head bank involves more instruments, including sterilization of tenge correspondent accounts of STB through USD interventions at internal market.
It is notable that situation existing during last months is consequence of subtle understanding of regulators' moods by Kazakhstan market participants'. Banks "vote with demand" to all measures, which AFS and National Bank take with a view to decrease risks of banking system and to curb inflation. And discontent of regulators for the time present is not seen. It is impossible to explain growth of dollar to tenge differently defiance of all fundamental factors.
From the point of prices dynamics today at 135.70, but closed with 50 points below. All symptoms of short term overheating are present, under influence of which IRBIS analysts inclined to wait compensational movement down on Wednesday. But it will hardly be deep. Key moment will be USD price behavior in approach from up to 133.40, recently showed itself as rather tough level of support. However it is not excluded, that to return even to this level the market in nearest future will not be able. The market looks up.
Evaluating medium term perspectives we would like to say the following. There are almost no supporters of further system strengthening of tenge to dollar. Apparently, that market develops at long-term trend level. Reasons - policy of USA relative to USD positions strengthening, situation in eurozone, revision of impact system at internal market by Kazakhstan regulators (the most fundamental from the beginning of 2003). But inceptive medium term (as minimum) trend of tenge weakening is not confirmed by objective rate forming factors, main of them - oil price. Trend will be supported by National Bank only still it will be profitable for Kazakhstan economy. Profitable or not - regulators will determine. And they will determine time life for this tendency. Result of this will be potential instability of incentive trend, difficulty in prognosis of its parameters and caution, required for restructuring of portfolios, necessary under influence of changed conjuncture.
[2005-06-21]