U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 17, 05/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar according to results of the day. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.
Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Morning Day Evening
Time 10:15-11:00 ALT 11:30-16:00 14:00-18:00
------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Indicator Value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Opening rate 133.74 +0.64 134.22 +0.72 - -
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Maximum rate 134.13 +0.69 134.27 +0.56 - -
Volume on max. Price 5000 +4750 200 -100 0 0
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Minimum rate 133.74 +0.64 134.01 +0.58 - -
volume on min. Price 5 0 200 0 0 0
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Closing rate 134.13 +0.69 134.24 +0.53 - -
Weight. aver. rate 134.10 +0.73 134.21 +0.67 - -
Volume of the session 33590 +12005 53950 +46665 0 0
Number of deals 79 -73 110 +71 0 0
Number of participants 22 0 17 -3 0 0
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Best bid* 134.13 +0.68 134.22 +0.55 - -
Best ask* 134.15 +0.60 134.25 +0.50 - -
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 134.08 +0.74 134.16 +0.62 134.16 +0.48
REUTERS Ask* 134.18 +0.74 134.26 +0.62 134.26 +0.51
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* at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS
Table of price levels of trading in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms
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Total by results of the day:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
134.27 200 1 200 1 11:55 11:55
134.26 5250 11 5250 11 11:38 15:20
134.25 25050 20 25050 20 11:36 15:20
134.24 2300 7 2300 7 11:57 15:29
134.23 1640 5 1640 5 14:49 15:22
134.22 1600 6 1600 6 11:31 15:23
134.20 4100 7 4100 7 14:30 14:38
134.19 300 1 300 1 14:30 14:30
134.18 1200 2 1200 2 14:28 14:29
134.16 600 2 600 2 11:59 14:22
134.15 700 3 700 3 12:20 14:22
134.14 1700 4 1700 4 11:58 14:06
134.13 5000 3 300 1 5300 4 10:59 14:07
134.12 95 2 600 3 695 5 10:58 14:03
134.11 600 5 1000 4 1600 9 10:50 14:03
134.10 25350 42 1700 7 27050 49 10:49 12:11
134.09 150 1 150 1 12:09 12:09
134.08 1100 4 1100 4 12:02 12:30
134.07 100 1 500 2 600 3 10:49 12:30
134.06 400 3 1400 6 1800 9 10:48 12:45
134.05 500 2 1550 7 2050 9 10:46 12:44
134.04 310 3 310 3 12:32 12:32
134.02 500 2 500 2 12:33 12:34
134.01 200 1 200 1 12:38 12:38
134.00 1410 16 1410 16 10:24 10:42
133.99 10 1 10 1 10:24 10:24
133.95 120 3 120 3 10:25 10:28
133.74 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 33590 79 53950 110 87540 189 10:15 15:29
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Jun 13, 05 Jun 14, 05 Jun 15, 05 Jun 16, 05 Jun 17, 05 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Offer 1 600 3 300 24 895 1 655 2 300 Bid 7 760 11 795 8 080 10 610 20 685 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Difference +6 160 +8 495 -16 815 +8 955 +18 385 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday events today again oriented the market to strong raise. Marked positive dynamics of quotations and American currency, sharply increased volume of unsatisfied demand, active speculations of traders, urged by redemption of notes of the National Bank - peculiarities of the day, which closed with good growth.
Tendency of dollar strengthening was supported by considerable volume of exchange operations, which relative to Thursday increased three times. To smooth rate fluctuations head bank had to take active part in trades. According to traders, level of resistance was formed at 134.25 and caused dollar price somehow to roll down at the end of KASE day session.
As a whole we should note, that excitement at the market was not observed. Banks disposition at KASE looked quite equilibrium. Many traders worked in both directions.
Main conclusion of the day - strengthening of prices above 134.00, and this strengthening looks confident.
The next week attempts to raise dollar rate can recommence. But if resistance is tough, the market again is able to go down.
Analyzing week results, IRBIS analysts more inclined to say about change of long-term trend. Mechanism of this change looks specific. Fundamental factors do not allow market to go up and move in this direction independently. Market is regulated by head bank, which forms wide horizontal price corridor, acting during definite time. After this time upper border is opening. Using excess tenge liquidity speculators push the market up, where face new level of resistance, which is higher than previous. Support also is going up. And after some time all is repeating again.
So from the middle of November last year to middle of March of the current market worked in corridor from 130.00 to 130.50, from the beginning of June - 130.50 - 132.50. at present new corridor is forming, "bottom" of which is 133.40 (probably, 133.00, depending from up pressure to the market), and "limit" is 134.50.
Existence of these corridors is caused by desire of head bank to take into account all exogenous factors, affecting real efficient exchange rate of tenge. That is why market needs correct direction. Analyses of results of this situation lets confirm, that without any limits tenge rate to dollar at present may change in wide range, and these ranges will be determined by objective economic factors, and speculative behavior of banks at internal currency market. High liquidity of banks on tenge and dollar allows traders now to organize practically any medium term rate trend. And to change this situation can only AFS and National bank measures on modification of prudential regulation system, forming reserve and accounting rates, their influence on the market. While these measures are not realized it is not excluded, that tenge rate will form due to many interventions of head bank, volume of which will depend upon speed of tenge rate change to dollar and force of pressure to borders of corridors of that money, which banks involve in trades at internal market.
It should also be noted that all measures planned by regulators at present are aimed to decrease flow of foreign currency to the country (except direct foreign investments). This makes US dollar market of Kazakhstan potentially open up, than down, with all resulting moods of traders. In this key strengthening of dollar to euro also is working at world market.
[2005-06-17]