U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk June 30, 04/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (over 99% of country's foreign exchange market) according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.
Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Main Additional Additional
(morning) (day) (evening)
Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00
----------------- -------------- -------------
Indicator Value Trend Value trend value trend
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Opening rate 136.39 +0.09 136.03 -0.40 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Maximum rate 136.39 -0.61 136.05 -0.39 - -
Volume on max. Price 5 0 300 0 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Minimum rate 136.01 -0.29 135.90 -0.48 - -
volume on min. Price 100 +95 20395 +20345 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Closing rate 136.04 -0.40 135.90 -0.50 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Weight. aver. rate 136.06 -0.39 135.92 -0.48 - -
Volume of the session 17890 +11355 28900 +18425 0 0
Number of deals 115 +26 61 -11 0 0
Number of participants 19 +5 18 -1 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Best ask* 136.03 -0.39 135.90 -0.49 - -
Best bid* 136.05 -0.39 135.91 -0.49 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 135.97 -0.43 135.80 -0.55 135.80 -0.52
REUTERS Ask* 136.07 -0.43 135.90 -0.55 135.90 -0.52
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* at closing of the session at KASE, out of stock exchange -
by the data of REUTERS
Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms
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TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY:
Morning Day ----------------------------
Session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume Deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
136.39 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
136.23 50 1 50 1 10:24 10:24
136.20 50 1 50 1 10:24 10:24
136.19 50 1 50 1 10:24 10:24
136.14 950 12 950 12 10:26 10:28
136.12 805 6 805 6 10:15 10:30
136.11 300 3 300 3 10:31 10:34
136.10 800 3 800 3 10:33 10:33
136.09 400 4 400 4 10:34 10:35
136.08 300 3 300 3 10:35 10:35
136.07 1400 7 1400 7 10:36 10:36
136.06 1700 11 1700 11 10:36 10:38
136.05 1720 8 300 1 2020 9 10:38 11:32
136.04 2660 15 2660 15 10:38 10:59
136.03 6600 38 750 4 7350 42 10:38 11:39
136.02 300 1 300 1 11:40 11:40
136.01 100 1 900 3 1000 4 10:39 12:03
135.99 350 2 350 2 11:57 11:57
135.98 1200 6 1200 6 11:41 14:25
135.97 500 2 500 2 14:29 14:29
135.96 465 3 465 3 12:23 12:51
135.95 40 1 40 1 14:43 14:43
135.94 595 5 595 5 12:45 14:58
135.93 405 3 405 3 14:32 14:53
135.92 105 2 105 2 14:55 14:55
135.91 2595 14 2595 14 14:55 15:19
135.90 20395 14 20395 14 14:55 15:28
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 17890 115 28900 61 46790 176 10:15 15:28
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply at trading system of KASE for the last 5 days (the amount of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closed, th. USD)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator June 24, 04 June 25, 04 June 28, 04 June 29, 04 June 30, 04 ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Bid 9,990 5,720 5,225 4,555 8,320 Ask 5,800 5,085 1,410 3,450 3,750 ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Difference -4,190 -635 -3,815 -1,105 -4,570 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The market changed. Tuesday low closing set the mood of dollar buyers. Today they were very uncompromising. At the same time, two banks offered somewhat higher dollar volumes in the morning. Pressure of these factors forced market to start falling at a growing pace. This movement forced other traders to close long positions in the afternoon. As a result, dollar lost half-tenge despite support from the National Bank and trade volume increased three times compared to Tuesday.
These events allow to suggest that prolonged correctional upward movement of dollar observed from June 8 has exhausted. The market once more time demonstrated its mood on tenge strengthening under influence of fundamental factors. Among them are high world oil prices and growing external borrowing of Kazakhstan residents.
IRBIS experts suggest that some local factors, i.e. speculative mood of traders was also a reason for dollar fall. As it is well known, today Federal Reserve System of the USA should have revised its rate towards increase. It is not excluded that Kazakhstan traders attempted to lower domestic market down to minimal levels on the threshold of consecutive strengthening of dollar thus reserving room for opening of long positions.
In the immediate future dollar fall could be prevented by excessive tenge liquidity of banks supported by the National Bank and its prescheduled redemption of notes on June 29 for a total of KZT 9.1 bn. The damping position of the National bank is also a reason for such assumption.
It is hard to outline nearest targets of the market considering new short- term development. Much will depend on rigidity of the National Bank that usually works on smoothing of fluctuations. Reaction of traders on its operations is also interesting. Thursday will show us a final outcome of such disposition.
[2004-06-30]