U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, November 19, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market) according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.
Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Main Additional Additional
(morning) (day) (evening)
Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00
----------------- ------------- -------------
Indicator value trend Value trend value trend
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Opening rate 146.30 +0.20 146.42 +0.08 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Maximum rate 146.80 +0.20 146.42 -0.02 - -
Volume on max. price 5 0 300 +100 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Minimum rate 146.10 0 146.35 +0.04 - -
volume on min. price 5 0 600 +200 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Closing rate 146.38 -0.01 146.40 -0.04 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Weight. aver. rate 146.40 +0.03 146.38 +0.02 - -
Volume of the session 12155 -415 3830 +70 0 0
Number of deals 153 +50 29 +2 0 0
Number of participants 18 +1 13 +1 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Best ask* 146.38 0 146.39 -0.02 - -
Best bid* 146.40 0 146.40 -0.02 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 146.37 +0.05 146.36 -0.03 146.38 -0.01
REUTERS Ask* 146.44 +0.02 146.44 -0.05 146.48 +0.02
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* at closing of the session at KASE, out of stock exchange -
by the data of REUTERS
Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms
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TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
146.80 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
146.65 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
146.50 405 16 405 16 10:18 10:26
146.49 60 2 60 2 10:28 10:29
146.48 200 3 200 3 10:29 10:29
146.46 60 2 60 2 10:29 10:29
146.45 1100 12 1100 12 10:29 10:57
146.44 900 8 900 8 10:55 10:58
146.43 1255 13 1255 13 10:52 10:59
146.42 1000 9 300 2 1300 11 10:51 14:02
146.41 390 5 50 1 440 6 10:51 14:30
146.40 2305 33 930 4 3235 37 10:37 15:29
146.39 1035 10 1200 13 2235 23 10:35 15:28
146.38 50 1 150 2 200 3 10:59 15:01
146.37 200 4 450 3 650 7 10:44 14:57
146.36 150 2 150 2 14:52 14:52
146.35 925 11 600 2 1525 13 10:30 14:52
146.34 200 2 200 2 10:33 10:33
146.33 200 1 200 1 10:33 10:33
146.32 200 2 200 2 10:30 10:31
146.31 1600 14 1600 14 10:31 10:32
146.30 55 2 55 2 10:15 10:29
146.10 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 12155 153 3830 29 15985 182 10:15 15:29
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Today, Kazakhstan dollar market showed rare stability. Despite active operations of traders neither sellers nor buyers take initiative and shake the equilibrium. As a result, prices remained at Tuesday level while market closed at neutral positions compared to previous day.
Important feature of the day seen as well in last two days is permanency of dollar supply. It does not growth as usually in the mid of each month. On the one hand this is stipulated by higher short-term banking liquidity in tenge compared to September and October levels. On the other - sensitive oil price slowdown in the end of October. The last fact states that foreign exchange export proceedings fell in October and came to November at lower levels. Besides, hike of gasoline prices at domestic market supported large tenge volumes. Thus traders are not interested in selling dollars at the minimal levels of the year.
According to IRBIS experts, November dollar fall should be attributed mainly to psychological factors. Traders have met National Bank resistance at high levels of the market. Such politics could be explained by the anti-inflation policy of the National Bank. As a result, market has only one way down. Thus dollar has fell at small trade volumes. At 146.40 level and overselling condition dollar rate waits for new pushes that are capable to change equilibrium.
Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply at trading system of KASE for the 5 past days (the amount of active bids by the time of morning and day trades closed, USD ths. )
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Nov 13, 03 Nov 14, 03 Nov 17, 03 Nov 18, 03 Nov 19, 03 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Supply 4,255 4,800 8,630 3,700 3,495 Demand 7,000 8,195 5,965 10,910 4,005 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Difference +2,745 +3,395 -2,665 +7,210 +510 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Remarkable oil prices growth in November should be considered while forecasting further developments of dollar market. Much will depend on how long prices will remain at maximal levels ($30 per barrel). Tenge will strengthen further in first December decade as "export dollars" grow at maximal oil price level. Till the end of November dollar most probably will take weak growth to 147.00. So far, there are only slight signs of such development. Wednesday evening showed neither growth nor slide down trends.
[2003-11-19]