U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, October 1, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market) according to results of the day. Values are given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD, trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.
Results of trades at Kazakhstan stock exchange
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Main Additional Additional
(morning) (day) (evening)
Time 10:15 - 11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00
----------------- ------------- -------------
Indicator value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Opening rate 149.10 +0.15 148.53 -0.39 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Maximum rate 149.10 +0.04 148.58 -0.34 - -
Volume on max. price 5 0 300 -600 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Minimum rate 148.50 -0.35 148.51 -0.29 - -
volume on min. price 210 +205 500 +495 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Closing rate 148.55 -0.40 148.53 -0.36 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Weight. aver. rate 148.58 -0.39 148.54 -0.34 - -
Volume of the session 4180 -13640 4820 -2400 0 0
Number of deals 71 -101 23 -17 0 0
Number of participants 16 +1 13 +2 0 0
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
Best ask* 148.55 -0.40 148.50 -0.39 - -
Best bid* 148.58 -0.38 148.55 -0.35 - -
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ----- ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 148.56 -0.36 148.44 -0.39 148.48 -0.35
REUTERS Ask* 148.67 -0.30 148.53 -0.40 148.53 -0.36
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* at closing of the session at KASE. out of stock exchange -
by the data of REUTERS
Table of price levels of trade in US dollar at KASE on TOD terms
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TOTAL BY RESULTS OF THE DAY:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
149.10 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
148.80 110 2 110 2 10:15 10:17
148.75 5 1 5 1 10:15 10:15
148.70 15 3 15 3 10:15 10:18
148.69 10 1 10 1 10:17 10:17
148.68 10 1 10 1 10:17 10:17
148.67 10 1 10 1 10:17 10:17
148.66 10 1 10 1 10:19 10:19
148.65 210 3 210 3 10:20 10:20
148.64 150 4 150 4 10:21 10:21
148.63 5 1 5 1 10:22 10:22
148.62 5 1 5 1 10:22 10:22
148.61 165 5 165 5 10:22 10:57
148.60 405 5 405 5 10:22 10:22
148.59 290 5 290 5 10:25 10:58
148.58 400 5 300 1 700 6 10:24 15:06
148.57 765 13 620 4 1385 17 10:26 15:25
148.56 250 3 250 3 10:58 10:58
148.55 950 9 1500 7 2450 16 10:27 15:29
148.54 200 3 300 3 500 6 10:29 15:01
148.53 1300 5 1300 5 11:33 15:29
148.52 300 1 300 1 12:09 12:09
148.51 500 2 500 2 12:28 12:29
148.50 210 3 210 3 10:33 10:33
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 4180 71 4820 23 9000 94 10:15 15:29
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At Kazakhstan market of US dollar the day was marked by rapid decline of traders' activity, who occupied waiting positions after harsh speech of the head of the National Bank about dollar speculations. The volume of exchange trades with the currency decreased almost three times relative to Tuesday. Regardless the increase of corresponding accounts of STB (repo "overnight" rates today fell to the values that characterizes short-term liquidity of the banking sector as excessive one), traders continue to close out their long positions on dollars, what actually predetermined the price dynamics. Apparently, idle tenge appeared at banks during 2 past days, are being directed to another market's sector. It is evidenced by very strong demand for MEKKAM-6 during its floatation today, as well as insignificant volume of bids submitted for purchase of notes floated by the National bank. Besides, for the first time of past days, the resulting balance of second-tier banks in repo sector at KASE was in favour of shortest funds floating.
The fall of dollar rate was sluggish - at relatively modest supply volume. The market was collapsing thanks to pertinacity of buyers, who definitely possessed initiative by using psychological factor. Attempts of some banks to support market from downside with speculative demand looked careless and they (banks) were unable to influence the conjecture. It looks like traders will wait till the end of a first decade of October to estimate the volume of September revenues of exporters, which enterprises are going to sell at domestic market. In case of insignificant supply the market again will strive for upward direction. As for now, however, the dynamics of dollar rate is hard to forecast. The market "handed-up" in uncertainty and is ready to allow tenge to appreciate for couple dozen of points at compensative roll away until situation becomes clear.
The results of technical analysis evidence about signals, becoming more certain, for market to turn towards down, but do not allow to speak about significant change of situation. Judging on parameters of the day close, on Thursday tenge appreciation looks very likely. However, it is likely happen against a background of a weak psychological factor and modest volumes as high devaluation expectations of dealers left unrealized.
[2003-10-01]