/IRBIS, August 6, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.

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Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument                     USD TOD       USD TOD     USD TOM      USD SPOT
Session                           Main   Additional.     Evening       Evening
Time of trades (AST)     10:15a-11:00a  11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p   2:00p-6:00p
Rate (KZT/USD)           147.14(+0.09) 147.23(+0.13)           -             -
Volume of session (m)  17.360(+10.120) 6.755(-2.790)   0(-0.100)             0
Bid                      147.14(+0.12) 147.21(+0.11)           -             -
Offer                    147.15(+0.11) 147.23(+0.12)           -             -
Number of participants          20(+3)        16(-1)       0(-2)             0
---------------------- --------------- ------------- ----------- -------------
Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information
system of REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates)
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Bid                      147.08(+0.09) 147.14(+0.16)             147.17(+0.16)
Offer                    147.17(+0.13) 147.25(+0.14)             147.23(+0.10)
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Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for
additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades
are shown as the Exchange's quotations.

During the whole day USD's positions at Kazakhstan market of US dollar were strengthening despite the significant stabilizing influence of the National Bank. It was possible mainly due to demand from outside of one large bank, which specialize mainly in USD sale this year. Judging on results of the trade it bought at the stock exchange a bit more than 40% of the whole sold currency. As the result the market got rather strong impulse for moving upward and closed I the end of the day with the significant growth.

Results of conducted analysis give evidence about the fact that excessive short-term liquidity of the banking sector helps dollar rise. Banks' positions at the market of repo and dollar did correlate between each other. For example, the above-mentioned buyer of USD was offering free money today, and some leading sellers of dollar were attracting dollars.

Influence of unchanged volume of dollar offer from outside of second tier banks is also present without doubts. This volume has not changed by the net-position relative to Tuesday, whereas similar index on demand has increased 1.3 times. Total volume of trades in dollar at KASE increased 1.42 times.

At the same time one should note that other traditional sellers of dollar did not move to the group of buyers, but went on selling their clients' currency proceeds, using market's conjuncture in their interests. It means that dollar is growing mainly due to local interest of one bank, and this interest will end soon. Reaching of balance by the market was felt already today in the final and the most active phase of the day trade on 147.21 - 147.23. Judging on the quotations of day's closing out of stock exchange, these levels may be the main level of trade on Thursday.

Judging on results of the day there appears impression that potential of the correcting movement of the market upward is falling, and the correction is close to the end. But it's quite probable dollar's rate will insignificantly grow at Thursday's morning trades.

[2003-08-06]