/IRBIS, June 30, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.

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Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument                    USD TOD        USD TOD     USD TOM      USD SPOT
Session                          Main    Additional.     Evening       Evening
Time of trades (AST)    10:15a-11:00a   11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p   2:00p-6:00p
Rate (KZT/USD)          147.68(-0.32)  147.60(-0.34)           -             -
Volume of session (m)  33.795(-2.570) 10.450(-2.180)           0             0
Bid                     147.67(-0.33)  147.59(-0.30)           -             -
Offer                   147.68(-0.33)  147.60(-0.34)           -             -
Number of participants         12(+1)         13( 0)           0             0
---------------------- -------------- -------------- ----------- -------------
Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information
system of REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates)
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Bid                     147.63(-0.36)  147.54(-0.26)             147.51(-0.27)
Offer                   147.70(-0.31)  147.59(-0.35)             147.56(-0.32)
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Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations.

US dollar market has registered no new trends today despite growth of Rouble in Russia and EURO weakening at the world market (1.1469/1.1474 at 21:20 Almaty time). Supply has clearly prevailed on the market today. It is worth to mention that National Bank's interventions at the KASE forex market have been the highest since the beginning of a year. Market showed significant dominance of net-sellers over number of net-buyers.

All this happened on the background of high short-term liquidity of banks that felt no shortage of domestic money to conduct other banking settlements.

Closing parameters and general mood of the market allow us to suppose that on Tuesday tenge will continue to strengthen. In nearest days, the market could even reach 147.00 with probable deepest dive at 146.88.

Several other factors could influence dollar market in more long-term prospect.

Besides large export proceeds and their sales due to quarterly tax payments in first half of July tenge growth could be also backed by coupon payment over international bonds. On a current week, TuranAlem B.V. settles coupon with holders of first issue bonds ($5,750.0 th). At the beginning of next week, KazTransOil pays coupon in amount of $6,375.0 th.

The forecast of banks' high liquidity could prevent dollar from fall. Considering volumes of GS redemptions (almost KZT13 bn) banks will enjoy very high liquidity during the week. On July 2 Astana-Finance OJSC will redeem its domestic bonds of first emission (equivalent of $10,450.0 thousands). On July 04, AMB OJSC will pay third coupon over domestic bonds ($450.0 thousands). Besides, we should consider dollar strengthening against the EURO at FOREX and possible growth of Rouble at MICEX.

It is hard to foresee resulting vector. It looks like the market accumulates demand for clear upward jump (initiated by banks). Yet, clients of the bank will not make it possible at least till July 20.

[2003-06-30]