/IRBIS, June 10, 03/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day.

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Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument                    USD TOD       USD TOD     USD TOM      USD SPOT
Session                          Main   Additional.     Evening       Evening
Time of trades (AST)    10:15a-11:00a  11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p   2:00p-6:00p
Rate (KZT/USD)          149.60(+0.15) 149.46(-0.11)           -             -
Volume of session (m)   9.720(+5.115) 6.480(+4.180)           0             0
Bid                     149.60(+0.05) 149.46(-0.11)           -             -
Offer                   149.68(+0.12) 149.50(-0.10)           -             -
Number of participants         12(-3)        12(+2)           0             0
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Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information
system of REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates)
system of REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates)
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Bid                     149.50(+0.17) 149.39(-0.13)             149.34(-0.18)
Offer                   149.71(+0.15) 149.45(-0.13)             149.39(-0.18)
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Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations.

Events at US dollar market of Kazakhstan justified assumption of IRBIS analysts today concerning USD's weak potential for correcting strengthening. At KASE's morning session, USD sellers, using speculative demand, managed to play upward and support tendency of correcting movement. However dollar was strengthening mainly due to one bank's demand. Absence of its dealer at the day trades, and also sale of exporters; currency proceeds, which was caused by growth of USD's price yesterday and today, not only made the market stable, but also pulled it lower by 17 points to 149.46. Position of the head bank, which was smoothing even such the insignificant fluctuations of exchange's rate, is also interesting.

Judging on results of the day there appears impression that possessors of dollars will not let it raise at least till June 15. Some significant growth of its rate will be accompanied by increasing of sales volume and market's falling to former levels. On Wednesday, most probably, tenge at KASE will win back points from dollar.

Results of technical concerning results of the day analysis do not exclude the possibility of prices shift to 149.10 and attempt to break the formed support level.

As regards more long-term outlook the market is waiting for June 17. In some analysts' opinion this date is the key one. According to information of REUTERS, which was presented with reference to the head of export department of Iraq's ministry of oil Mokhamed al-Jiburi, on June 10 results of the first tender for buying Iraq's oil will be summed up, and coming of the first tanker with this oil from the port Mina-al-Bakr is expected on June 17. Regarding "the port of postscript" of companies, which will win this and the following tenders, analysts, as a rule, do not have doubts, or it was not worth making Iraq's company. In accordance with it is precisely June 17 with what specialists connect the beginning of the new stage in development of American economy - stage of quick growth, which has been caused by deliveries of cheapening oil. From here expectations of American stock market's growth, and also dollar's strengthening of dollar relative to main currencies of the world appear.

In the opinion of IRBIS specialists this strengthening can significantly influence Kazakhstan currency dealers and exporters of oil, who will change their attitude towards American currency. It an cause development of the marked correcting movement of the market upward after June 20 and coming back of dollar's rate at least to the level, which are higher than KZT150 per unit (and, may be, 152).

Afterwards many things will be determined by dynamics of the world oil prices. Their significant decrease may cause global changes of western investors' attitude towards developing countries - producers of oil with all following for these countries consequences concerning borrowing funds, and also concerning the budgetary financing at the expense of inflows from sale of oil. In case events develop by this scenario there may appear weighty preconditions for the long-term strengthening of USD's positions at domestic market in Kazakhstan by autumn.

[2003-06-10]