/IRBIS, Jan 24, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to the figures of previous day.

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Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument                    USD TOD       USD TOD     USD TOM      USD SPOT
Session                          Main   Additional.     Evening       Evening
Time of trades (AST)    10:15a-11:00a  11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p   2:00p-6:00p
Rate (KZT/USD)          151.54(-0.02) 151.60(+0.02)           -             -
Volume of session (m)  10.900(+3.800) 0.300(-1.930)           0             0
Bid                     151.55(-0.01) 151.55(+0.04)           -             -
Offer                      151.57( 0) 151.60(+0.02)           -             -
Number of participants         12(-4)         4(-7)           1             1
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Indicative
U.S. dollar quotations on interbank over-the-counter market in information
system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates)
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Bid                     151.52(-0.01) 151.56(+0.04)             151.58(+0.05)
Offer                   151.57(-0.01) 151.61(+0.03)             151.63(+0.05)
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Notes: weighted average rate is given for main session, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations the best prices for ask and bid at the closing of trades are given.

The situation on the market of the dollar changed much relative to previous day. First of all, it was the change in the positions of the banks on the currency market of the Exchange. If yesterday the dollars were sold mainly by the banks servicing the exporters, then today the sellers were diverse and the buyers of USD were typical. It should be noted only that one of the second tier banks was unusually active at buying the dollars on the trade floor of the Exchange. Its demand rendered much support to the American currency in the morning session, though it should be considered as local.

The feature of the day is the fact that the most active sellers of USD were lending tenge from their accounts in repo sector of KASE in big volumes, obviously suffering the excessive liquidity. It is an interesting fact and can be interpreted differently. Actually, the situation in repo market shows that there is great volume of free tenge that the banks can not invest. For the first time in January the resulting balance of the banks in opening repo transactions was positive in favor of the lending. The repo rates keep falling. But, even under this situation the National Bank did not get a great demand for its notes, since their yields were very low.

As far as the forecasting the exchange rate of the dollar, the participants were passive at the day session of the Exchange. Only two deals were made, with each of them being made at high price than the weighted average of the morning trades. The market became still, and apparently, is waiting for the reversal. There is no need to play downwards due to quite tough position of the National Bank. The changes in the positions of the sellers that took place today indicate that the traders made such an attempt today. Afternoon bids of the dollar show that the growth trend of the dollar will reverse soon.

Considering the features of the day, the IRBIS analysts believe that the most likely scenario for Friday are the following. The first one is the growth of the dollar at a relatively high rates. It is based on high liquidity of the market in tenge and the dynamics of the USD bids in the afternoon. The second scenario - stable exchange rate (with possible decrease of the market by 1- 2 points) is based on the increased supply of dollars from the exporters today, as well as on active lending of the money by the banks in repo sector. If traders were preparing to opening long positions in dollars, it would not take place. Under this scenario the speculators will give up the market on Friday to the National Bank and to exporters, and they will take care of other business and observe the situation. IRBIS analysts were not able to give preference to any of the scenarios.