/IRBIS, July 14, 2011/ - "RESMI" Financial & Investment House" JCS (Almaty, "RESMI" FIH) has provided IRBIS with the review of key events and its investment ideas and forecasts for July 14, 2011

The "RESMI" FIH analysts pay the investors' attention to the following key events on the markets:

- Today, the international rating agency Moody's credit rating has sent the U.S. to review for possible downgrade. Current rating is Aaa - the largest of assigned by Moody's. The direction of the rating on review is due to the possibility of delays in raising the limit of U.S. government debt. Thus, there is fear of a technical default on short-term obligations. However, Moody's assesses the probability of occurrence of such events as "low" but not "minimal." Agency Moody's in early June, has promised to send the U.S. rating to a review, by mid-July when U.S. lawmakers will not increase the limit on public debt. Moody's became the first agency, "Big Three" who posted a review rating United States. July 9, Fitch has threatened to deprive the U.S. of higher rating if the Congressmen before August 2 will not resolve the question of debt limit. In April, S & P revised its outlook on the U.S. rating from "stable" to "negative". President Barack Obama has held a series of meetings with representatives of both parties in Congress, but agree on the budget have failed. The vote on the increase in debt to the Congress appointed on 02 August. If a default takes place, regardless of its duration, Moody's will no longer consider the U.S. rating at 'AAA' as "justified." Likely to be downgraded ratings to "AA".

- Yesterday statistics on the Chinese economy were published. Contrary to the expectations of many analysts, the sharp slowdown has not happened and is not expected this year. China's GDP growth in second quarter of 2011 was 9.5% on an annualized basis. It was predicted that this figure stood at 9.4%. Growth in industrial production in June was 15.1% compared to the same period last year. According to forecasts, this indicator was 13.7%. Retail sales grew by 17.7% against the expected 17%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the slowdown was not excessive and in line with the Government's plans to cool the economy to keep inflation rate.

- American restaurant operator Yum! Brands Inc. increased net profit in the second quarter of this fiscal year by 10%, and also revised upwards the forecast for the full fiscal year, largely due to higher sales in China. For example, sales at restaurants open more than a year ago, in China jumped by 18%. During the last quarter the company opened 99 new restaurants in the country. Net income rose to $ 316 million, or $ 0.65 per share, compared with $ 286 million, or $ 0.59 per share, a year earlier. Earnings excluding some items of the balance were $ 0.66 per share, exceeding analysts' average forecast of $ 0.61 per share. The company's revenue last quarter grew by 9.4% - to $ 2.82 billion Yum! raised its forecast for growth in adjusted profit for the 2011 fiscal year, which can now make 12% earlier than expected as a minimum of 10%. As a result, at the end of yesterday's trading the company's shares rose 3.5% on additional auctions in New York. Analysts of "RESMI" recommend to purchase shares of Yum! Brands in view of the prospects for further expansion in emerging markets, particularly China, as well as the development trend of eating "out". In addition to China's growth in key markets the company has set for itself to France, India and Russia, where sales rose by 26%, 43% and 18% respectively.

Analysts of "RESMI" FIH give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:

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                  Last. Prognozed.  Up/down from
Issuer            price     price* current price
---------------- ------ ---------- -------------
Kazkommertzbank     401        528           32%
Halyk bank          329        519           58%
BankCenterCredit    500        921           84%
EP KMG           17,600     23,490           33%
Kazakhtelecom    19,600     26,300           34%
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*   Fundamental assessment of "RESMI" as of the end of the year
**  Targets according to the prognosis of the analysts asked by Bloomberg
*** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis, which
determines strength of the trend and the likelihood of change.
Overbought/oversold - when the value of the RSI indicator is closer to the
mark of 100%/0%

The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material

[2011-07-14]