ANALYSIS: As of June 1 2008 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with its servicing totaled KZT1,252.9 bn. or $10,391.9 bn.
/IRBIS, Raushan Tundybayeva, Ruslan Dzubaylo, June 16, 08/ - As of June 1, 2008, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (the amount of coupon payments) made in current prices KZT1,252.9 bn., or the equivalent of $10,391.9 m. at the rate of KZT120.57 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists came to the conclusion after own databases analysis. During this analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated considering the consumer price index, which was fixed for the period from March to May 2008 inclusive, on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM - from June 2007 to May 2008 inclusive.
From May 1-31, 2008, the total debt in tenge equivalent increased by KZT16.8 bn. (1.4%), in the dollar equivalent (taking into account change in the National Bank exchange rate) by 123.7 m. (1.2%). Similar indicators of debt change in April made up minus KZT8.1 bn. (-0.7%) or minus $41.8 m. (- 0.4%).
The following table contains more detailed information.
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Amount and
structure of debt
------------------------------- Change
as of as of for the
*Currency of May 31, 08 April 30, 08 period
------------- ------------------ ------------ --------------
Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT %
------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ --------- ----
National Bank KZT KZT 230.937 18.4 252.024 -21,087.5 -8.4
------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ --------- ----
Ministry 981.350
of Finance 1,022.015 81.6 +40,664.7 +4.1
incl. face KZT KZT 607.346 48.5 582.381 +24,964.8 +4.3
value
incl. KZT KZT 414.669 33.1 398.969 +15,699.8 +3.9
servicing
------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ --------- ----
Akimat of USD KZT - - 2.813 - -
Atyrau obl.
incl. face USD KZT - - 2.698 - -
value
incl. USD KZT - - 0.115 - -
servicing
------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ --------- ----
TOTAL 1,252.951 100.0 1,236.187 +16,764.1 +1.4
incl. face 838.283 66.9 837.104 +1,179.3 +0.1
value
incl. 414.669 33.1 399.084 +15,584.8 +3.9
servicing
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* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing
of the rate of tenge to US dollar.
Equivalents as of May 31, 2008 were valuated at the rate of KZT120.57 per dollar, as of April 30, 2008 - at KZT120.39. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics emerging, besides all other factors, from the rate difference.
Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows.
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Amount and
structure of debt
------------------------------ Change
as of as of for the
*Currency of May 31, 08 April 30, 08 period
------------- ----------------- ------------ ---------------
Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD %
------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
National Bank KZT KZT 1,915.4 18.4 2,093.4 -178,023.9 -8.5
------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
Ministry
of Finance 8,476.5 81.6 8,151.4 +325,100.9 +4.0
incl. face KZT KZT 5,037.3 48.5 4,837.5 +199,835.0 +4.1
value
incl. KZT KZT 3,439.2 33.1 3,314.0 +125,265.9 +3.8
servicing
------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----
Akimat of USD KZT - - 23.37 - -
Atyrau obl.
incl. face USD KZT - - 22.4 - -
value
incl. USD KZT - - 1.0 - -
servicing
TOTAL 10,391.9 100.0 10,268.2 +123,711.1 +1.2
incl. face 6,952.7 66.9 6,953.3 -599.8 0
value
incl. 3,439.2 33.1 3,314.9 +124,310.8 +3.8
servicing
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* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing
of the rate of tenge to US dollar.
According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in May 2008 by offering amount was KZT259,011.4 m. (in April - KZT159,577.2 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his notes on secondary market to the sum of KZT281,270.6 m. (KZT189,616.5 m.). Thus, in May the net- borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market made up minus KZT22,259.2 m. The corresponding index in April made up minus KZT30,039.3 m. (the "minus" sign in the balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors, the "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed).
In analyzing period, Ministry of Finance considerable emission of its debt liabilities allowed National Bank to decrease the volume of notes in circulation. Judging by TONIA, under the adequate liquidity conditions on the market, the total increasing sum of state debt now acts in head bank's favour, which main objective is to restrain inflation in decent limits.
It is also important to mark that in analyzing month there was maturity of last issue of municipal bonds. Akimat of Atyrau oblast matured its debt liabilities on the amount of KZT3,393.0 m.
In May, the Ministry of Finance borrowed due to MEKAM offering KZT30,585.1 m. (in April - KZT31,310.2 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments to the sum of KZT23,127.2 m. (in April - KZT16,874.0 m.). May net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT7,457.9 m. (in April - plus KZT14,436.2 m.).
Total May net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including coupon payment and the sum of main debt on bonds KZE4KY050046 of local executive body of Atyrau oblast) was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT14,801.3 m. Similar indicator of April - minus KZT15,603.1 m.
IRBIS Agency draws attention of subscribers and the mass media that the data given below are not the official statistics and received as a result of the information analysis, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of the agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central Securities Depository JSC (Almaty).
[2008-06-16]