U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Vitaliy Tomskiy, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 28, 07/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar, on day results. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD. Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day. Since December 29 is a holiday in the U.S. and Eurozone countries, no trades in dollar on TOM terms have been held today.
Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Morning Day Evening
Time 10:15-11:00 11:30 2:00-5:00 p.m.
a.m. ALT a.m.-3:30 p.m. 2:00-5:00 p.m.
--------------- ---------------- --------------
Indicator value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
Opening rate 121.00 -0.50 120.59 -0.42 Х Х
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
Maximum rate 121.00 -0.50 120.64 -0.43 Х Х
Volume on max. price 1,005 +1,000 6,100 +2,300 Х Х
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
Minimum rate 120.20 -0.30 120.54 -0.44 Х Х
Volume on min. price 5 0 138,550 +137,550 Х Х
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
Closing rate 120.56 -0.44 120.56 -0.49 Х Х
Weight. aver. rate 120.55 -0.44 120.56 -0.47 Х Х
Session volume (gross) 236,700 +35,405 262,150 +213,750 Х Х
Session net-turnover 205,210 +43,080 218,600 +173,500 Х Х
Number of deals 164 +49 187 +128 Х Х
Number of participants 21 -3 19 0 Х Х
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
Day gross-turnover* 498,850 +249,155 Х Х
Day net-turnover* 264,450 +84,820 Х Х
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
Best bid** 120.50 -0.49 120.55 -0.49 Х Х
Best ask** 120.56 -0.44 120.56 -0.50 Х Х
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------- ------- ------
REUTERS Bid** 120.90 -0.07 120.54 -0.47 120.50 -0.55
REUTERS Ask** 120.93 -0.11 120.58 -0.47 120.70 -0.38
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* resulting net-position on each instrument
** at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS
Table of price levels of trade in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms
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TOTAL BY DAY RESULTS:
Morning Day ------- ----- -----------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- -----------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------- ----- ------- ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
121.00 1,005 2 0 0 1,005 2 10:15 10:15
120.99 1,000 1 0 0 1,000 1 10:15 10:15
120.95 3,000 3 0 0 3,000 3 10:17 10:17
120.94 2,100 2 0 0 2,100 2 10:18 10:18
120.90 2,105 4 0 0 2,105 4 10:18 10:18
120.89 1,000 1 0 0 1,000 1 10:18 10:18
120.86 100 1 0 0 100 1 10:18 10:18
120.85 2,000 1 0 0 2,000 1 10:18 10:18
120.84 1,000 1 0 0 1,000 1 10:18 10:18
120.81 100 1 0 0 100 1 10:20 10:20
120.80 19,960 21 0 0 19,960 21 10:15 10:22
120.79 1,000 1 0 0 1,000 1 10:22 10:22
120.78 1,100 2 0 0 1,100 2 10:22 10:22
120.77 1,010 1 0 0 1,010 1 10:22 10:22
120.76 3,000 2 0 0 3,000 2 10:22 10:22
120.75 6,010 3 0 0 6,010 3 10:22 10:22
120.72 1,500 1 0 0 1,500 1 10:22 10:22
120.70 5,100 4 0 0 5,100 4 10:20 10:22
120.64 0 0 6,100 9 6,100 9 11:54 12:35
120.61 100 1 500 1 600 2 10:24 12:45
120.60 21,615 11 1,100 3 22,715 14 10:22 12:38
120.59 0 0 1,300 4 1,300 4 11:36 14:02
120.58 0 0 52,000 2 52,000 2 13:36 14:21
120.57 0 0 52,100 5 52,100 5 14:16 14:32
120.56 3,600 4 6,300 17 9,900 21 10:57 15:28
120.55 15,800 7 4,200 9 20,000 16 10:23 15:26
120.54 0 0 138,550 137 138,550 137 14:54 15:24
120.51 2,000 1 0 0 2,000 1 10:24 10:24
120.50 32,695 19 0 0 32,695 19 10:23 10:54
120.49 5,800 3 0 0 5,800 3 10:26 10:53
120.46 100 1 0 0 100 1 10:34 10:34
120.45 68,300 29 0 0 68,300 29 10:26 10:50
120.44 2,300 2 0 0 2,300 2 10:28 10:30
120.43 1,100 2 0 0 1,100 2 10:35 10:35
120.41 205 2 0 0 205 2 10:35 10:37
120.40 27,990 26 0 0 27,990 26 10:25 10:46
120.39 3,000 3 0 0 3,000 3 10:35 10:37
120.20 5 1 0 0 5 1 10:37 10:37
------ ------- ----- ------- ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 236,700 164 262,150 187 498,850 351 10:15 15:28
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)
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Indicator December December December December December
24, 25, 26, 27, 28,
07 07 07 07 07
---------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Ask 32,295 40,700 46,100 34,305 36,200
Bid 27,700 39,050 38,410 51,155 51,810
---------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Difference -4,595 -1,650 -7,690 +16,850 +15,610
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Day results give contradictory impression. From one side, judging from the stated during the last two days demand for dollar from the side of STB, the unbiased potential of dollar to growth is very high. From the other side, the head bank of the country has clearly demonstrated today that is not intended neither to open the market upward, nor let the dollar go higher than KZT121.00 per unit. That position of the National Bank can be understood. Growth of dollar exchange rate would complicate significantly the repayment of loans, given by STB to their clients and by that would increase risks of the banking system, which "limps" slightly at present.
Based on that, IRBIS analysts are tended to suppose that the tactical goal of the National Bank is now to demonstrate the futility of traders' attempts to play on rise of dollar value, and by that to nip their speculative movements in that direction in the bud. Taking into consideration the experience of pas months, such activities may be rather successful (unlike the smooth upward shift of resistance level, which usually provokes the speculators to open long positions). Therefore, IRBIS does not expect any particular persistency of traders when "attacking" KZT121.00.
A proof to that is close of day session of KASE, during which the National Bank had to control the lower boarders of the market, having hindered from a too sharp tenge appreciation. Traders just try to "swing" the market that stood too long within the consolidation channel in any direction. But today, it was not the case and is unlikely to be the case tomorrow.
[2007-12-28]