/INTERFAX-AFI, Washington, September 24, 07/ - Potential consequences of crisis on the market of risky credits in USA should not be overestimated, and the process of stabilization of money risks most likely will; be long, considers the International currency fund (ICF).

"Normalization of credit conditions may come not soon, and some methods of practice, formed on markets of structured credits, need to be changed", - is said in the fund's Global Financial Stability Report.

From the other side ICF notes that world economy had entered the period of excitements with high indicators of growth, especially in emerging markets countries. System-meaning financial organizations had entered it, obtaining with enough capital, let to deal with possible level of losses on credits.

ICF supposes that rates of growth of world economy will be high, but do not exclude some decrease of them. "Risks of growth slowing had increased significantly, and even if they won't realize in practice, the consequences of current period of anxiety will be significant and far-reaching", - the experts of fund consider.

ICF reminds, that in the Global Financial Stability Report issued in April 2007 was noted that "weakening of credit discipline and potential placidity" had caused to accumulation of credit risks on mortgage market of USA, market of purchasing by borrowed funds, and some credit markets of emerging markets' countries.

By opinion of ICF investors had weaken the vigilance needed while estimation of liquidity risks, or preferred to rely on estimations of rating agencies while analysis of risks on complex financial instruments.

As a whole, the fund considers, is preserving the high equilibrium of risks in emerging market countries, at that many countries are experiencing the favorable influence of increasing of main macro-economical indicators. In particular, happened the reduction of external governmental debt, had improved the debt liabilities structure management.

"However these positive shifts are neutralized by rapid growth of credits in emerging markets' countries, and by that circumstance that some banks (both local and foreign) are borrowing abroad in foreign currencies for provision of credits inside the country, taking on themselves all indirect credit risks in connection to provision with credits, caused ion foreign currency", - ICF supposes.

By opinion of ICF for stabilization of markets needed more clear information about connection of meaningful financial organizations and their balanced structures. "Only in case of full opening of information about their interrelation with assets managing companies, structures - mediators and structures of end use, investors will be able to estimate the true credit solvency of organizations, which they are dealing", - the experts of fund suppose.

Concerning the activity of rating agencies, ICF notes that ratings of complex structured products, possibly, had started to very closely concern with tasks for promoting their issue. "After, when the turbulence comes their ratings are falling rapidly, which causes the doubts in reliability and need of these ratings for investors", - ICF considers and appeals to create more differentiated scale of ratings for structured products.

ICF also appeals to pay more attention to estimations of complex products in market conditions, liquidity of which is not enough for determination of authentic market prices. "As a whole in connection to fast development of some non-liquid instruments appears the question, if the issuers of such securities should care themselves about their circulation on secondary markets in order to help the process of their estimation", - is said in the report.

[2007-09-25]