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04.01.2007 20:43

U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 4, 07/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar on day results. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD. Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.

Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrument                      USD TOD         USD TOD        USD TOM
KASE's session                  Morning             Day        Evening
Time                    10:15-11:00 ALT     11:30-15:30    14:00-17:00
                        ---------------  --------------  -------------
Indicator                 value   trend   value   trend   value  trend
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
Opening rate             126.50   -0.80  126.26   -0.31       -      -
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
Maximum rate             127.00   -0.30  126.26   -0.36       -      -
Volume on max. price          5       0    1000   -2300       0      0
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
Minimum rate             126.30   -0.20  125.96   -0.54       -      -
Volume on min. price      16000  +15995     500    -500       0      0
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
Closing rate             126.30   -0.25  125.98   -0.52       -      -
Weight. aver. rate       126.55   -0.24  126.06   -0.51       -      -
Session volume (gross)   263175  -84430   86700  -11700       0      0
Session net-turnover    175 955  -96945   71500  +11900       0      0
Number of deals             184     -28      53     -21       0      0
Number of participants       19      +2      18      +2       0      0
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
Day gross-turnover*                      349875  -96130
Day net-turnover*                        207455  -92045
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
Best bid*                126.29   -0.26  125.98   -0.51       -      -
Best ask*                126.30   -0.30  126.00   -0.52       -      -
----------------------  -------  ------  ------  ------  ------  -----
REUTERS Bid*             126.30   -0.45  125.89   -0.61  125.89  -0.53
REUTERS Ask*             126.34   -0.44  125.94   -0.61  125.94  -0.52
----------------------------------------------------------------------
* resulting net-position on each instrument

** at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of REUTERS

Table of price levels of trade in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms

-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              TOTAL BY DAY RESULTS:
               Morning         United  ----------------------------
              session:       session:                   time (ALT):
Price   --------------  -------------                  ------------
level    volume  deals  volume  deals   volume  deals   from     to
------  -------  -----  ------  -----  -------  -----  -----  -----
127.00        5      1                       5      1  10:15  10:15
126.72    5,000      2                   5,000      2  10:16  10:16
126.71   35,000     15                  35,000     15  10:16  10:17
126.70   15,000      4                  15,000      4  10:15  10:17
126.69    9,000      2                   9,000      2  10:18  10:18
126.68   10,000      2                  10,000      2  10:18  10:18
126.66    1,000      1                   1,000      1  10:19  10:19
126.65    1,000      1                   1,000      1  10:20  10:20
126.62    2,000      2                   2,000      2  10:20  10:20
126.61    8,000      3                   8,000      3  10:20  10:21
126.60   31,500     18                  31,500     18  10:21  10:22
126.59    6,500      8                   6,500      8  10:22  10:24
126.58    3,000      3                   3,000      3  10:25  10:25
126.57    2,000      2                   2,000      2  10:25  10:26
126.56    1,000      1                   1,000      1  10:26  10:26
126.55    1,100      2                   1,100      2  10:26  10:26
126.54    5,000      4                   5,000      4  10:26  10:26
126.53    2,000      2                   2,000      2  10:26  10:26
126.52    2,000      2                   2,000      2  10:27  10:27
126.51    6,800      6                   6,800      6  10:27  10:28
126.50   53,560     35                  53,560     35  10:15  10:34
126.49    6,905      9                   6,905      9  10:29  10:35
126.48    2,105      4                   2,105      4  10:28  10:35
126.47      100      1                     100      1  10:37  10:37
126.46    1,100      2                   1,100      2  10:37  10:37
126.45    1,100      2                   1,100      2  10:37  10:37
126.44      100      1                     100      1  10:45  10:45
126.43      100      1                     100      1  10:45  10:45
126.42      200      1                     200      1  10:45  10:45
126.41    5,100      2                   5,100      2  10:45  10:45
126.40    4,100      4                   4,100      4  10:45  10:47
126.39    1,000      1                   1,000      1  10:49  10:49
126.37      700      2                     700      2  10:50  10:56
126.36   10,200     10                  10,200     10  10:54  10:56
126.35    4,100      3                   4,100      3  10:56  10:56
126.32    7,200      9                   7,200      9  10:57  10:57
126.31    2,600      2                   2,600      2  10:57  10:57
126.30   16,000     14                  16,000     14  10:57  10:59
126.26                    1000      2    1,000      2  11:50  11:50
126.23                     300      1      300      1  11:54  11:54
126.22                     600      2      600      2  11:54  11:54
126.21                     600      2      600      2  11:55  11:55
126.20                     500      1      500      1  12:03  12:03
126.19                    6000      8    6,000      8  12:03  12:34
126.18                    4500      5    4,500      5  12:36  14:00
126.17                    4000      4    4,000      4  12:40  14:04
126.16                    1000      1    1,000      1  14:04  14:04
126.12                    1000      1    1,000      1  14:05  14:05
126.10                   17000      2   17,000      2  14:10  14:21
126.06                    2200      4    2,200      4  14:11  14:23
126.05                     200      2      200      2  14:27  14:35
126.02                   11000      2   11,000      2  14:23  14:37
126.00                    6100      6    6,100      6  14:24  15:04
125.99                     200      1      200      1  15:22  15:22
125.98                   27500      5   27,500      5  14:57  15:29
125.97                    2500      3    2,500      3  14:58  14:58
125.96                     500      1      500      1  15:00  15:00
------  -------  -----  ------  -----  -------  -----  -----  -----
ИТОГО   263,175    184   86700     53  349,875    237  10:15  15:29
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indicator   Dec. 27, 06  Dec. 28, 06  Dec. 29, 06  Jan. 3, 06  Jan. 4, 06
----------  -----------  -----------  -----------  ----------  ----------
Offer            92,395       69,300       58,770     105,500     129,100
Bid              70,200       59,005       51,815      20,795      12,715
----------  -----------  -----------  -----------  ----------  ----------
Difference      -22,195      -10,295       -6,955     -84,705    -116,385
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Bear" moods on Kazakhstan dollar market strengthened today. USD buyers were confidently playing downwards with their demand incompliance, and the country's head bank did not make firm supports, and was just regulating the speed of market's falling. As experience of previous years shows, such tactics of smoothing rate fluctuations under conditions of obviously over-purchased dollar provokes traders to further raising short positions and to the development of speculative component in their behavior. The proof of t hat is dollar's loosing 52 points, by day results, because of falling of its offer volume and the considerable degree of demand monopolization, which was caused not only by the National Bank's purchases.

In quantitative meaning banks disposition on KASE seemed to be balanced. However this balance, in the opinion of analysts of IRBIS, was rather caused not by the objective need of banks and their clients in USD, but by intermediary fixing of profit by speculators on short positions. Today the market did not leave an impression of close bottom. It's falling down, and at present only National Bank can stop it.

Results of technical analysis preserve the goals figured out by the market, which are 124.45 and 121.90.

[2007-01-04]