ANALYSIS: As of December 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with servicing totaled KZT938.3 bn. or $7,331.8 m.
/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, Decemebr 8, 06/ - As of December 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT938.3 bn., or $7,331.8 m. at the rate of KZT127.98 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from September till November of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from December of 2005 till November of 2006.
Within November 1-30 of 2006 total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT108.9 bn. (+13.1%), in dollar equivalent - by 842.8 m. (+13.0%). Similar indicators of debt change in October of 2006 were plus KZT32.4 bn. (+4.1%) or plus $223.7 m. (+3.6%).
Following table contains detailed information.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amount and structure of debt
---------------------------- Change
as of for the
*Currency of Nov 30, 06 as of period
------------- ----------------- Oct 31, 06 ----------------
Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
National Bank KZT KZT 359.569 38.3 276.313 +83,256.6 +30.1
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Ministry of Finance 574.301 61.2 548.536 +25,765.4 +4.7
incl. face value 420.145 44.8 408.599 +11,545.8 +2.8
also, domestic GS KZT, 375.352 40.0 363.862 +11,489.8 +3.2
USD KZT
also, euronotes USD USD 44.793 4.8 44.737 +56.0 +0.1
incl. servicing 154.157 16.4 139.937 +14,219.6 +10.2
also, domestic GS KZT, 151.665 16.2 134.960 +16,705.0 +12.4
USD KZT
also, euronotes USD USD 2.492 0.3 4.977 -2,485.4 -49.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Municipals USD KZT 4.450 0.5 4.566 -115.8 -2.5
incl. face value USD KZT 3.989 0.4 3.984 +5.0 +0.1
incl. servicing USD KZT 0.461 0.05 0.582 -120.8 -20.8
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.216 0.1 1.214 +1.5 +0.1
also, face value USD KZT 1.121 0.1 1.119 +1.4 +0.1
also, servicing USD KZT 0.095 0.01 0.095 +0.1 +0.1
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 3.234 0.3 3.352 -117.4 -3.5
akimat
also, face value USD KZT 2.868 0.3 2.865 +3.6 +0.1
also, servicing USD KZT 0.366 0.04 0.487 -121.0 -24.8
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
TOTAL 938.321 100.0 829.415 +108,906.1 +13.1
incl. face value 783.703 83.5 688.895 +94,807.3 +13.8
incl. servicing 154.618 16.5 140.519 +14,098.8 +10.0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 891.036 95.0 779.701 +111,335.5 +14.3
also, face value KZT KZT 738.910 78.7 644.158 +94,751.3 +14.7
also, servicing KZT KZT 152.127 16.2 135.542 +16,584.2 +12.2
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. external debt USD USD 47.285 5.0 49.714 -2,429.4 -4.9
also, face value USD USD 44.793 4.8 44.737 +56.0 +0.1
also, servicing USD USD 2.492 0.3 4.977 -2,485.4 -49.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing
of the rate of tenge to US dollar.
Equivalents as of November 30, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT127.98 per dollar, as of October 31, 06 - at KZT127.82. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors.
Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amount and structure of debt
---------------------------- Change
as of for the
*Currency of Nov 30, 06 as of period
------------- ----------------- Oct 31, 06 ----------------
Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD %
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
National Bank KZT KZT 2,809.6 38.3 2,161.7 +647,840.9 +30.0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Ministry of Finance 4,487.4 61.2 4,291.5 +195,958.2 +4.6
incl. face value 3,282.9 44.8 3,196.7 +86,218.8 +2.7
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 2,932.9 40.0 2,846.7 +86,218.8 +3.0
also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 4.8 350.0 0 0
incl. servicing 1,204.5 16.4 1,094.8 +109,739.4 +10.0
also, domestic GS KZT,
USD KZT 1,185.1 16.2 1,055.9 +129,208.1 +12.2
also, euronotes USD USD 19.5 0.3 38.9 -19,468.8 -50.0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
Municipals USD KZT 34.8 0.5 35.7 -949.9 -2.7
incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.4 31.2 0 0
incl. servicing USD KZT 3.6 0.05 4.6 -949.9 -20.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Astana USD KZT 9.5 0.1 9.5 0 0
akimat
also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 8.8 0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 0.7 0.01 0.7 0 0
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. Atyrau USD KZT 25.3 0.3 26.2 -949.9 -3.6
region akimat
also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.3 22.4 +0.0 0
also, servicing USD KZT 2.9 0.04 3.8 -949.9 -24.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
TOTAL 7,331.8 100.0 6,488.9 +842,849.3 +13.0
incl. face value 6,123.6 83.5 5,389.6 +734,059.8 +13.6
incl. servicing 1,208.1 16.5 1,099.4 +108,789.5 +9.9
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
OR
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. internal debt KZT KZT 6,962.3 95.0 6,100.0 +862,318.1 +14.1
also, face value KZT KZT 5,773.6 78.7 5,039.6 +734,059.8 +14.6
also, servicing KZT KZT 1,188.7 16.2 1,060.4 +128,258.3 +12.1
------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- -----
incl. external debt USD USD 369.5 5.0 388.9 -19,468.8 -5.0
also, face value USD USD 350.0 4.8 350.0 0 0
also, servicing USD USD 19.5 0.3 38.9 -19,468.8 -50.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is
expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing
of the rate of tenge to US dollar.
According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in November by amounts of offering was KZT358,416.1 m. (in October - KZT275,455.7 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT276,312.6 (KZT244,122.7 m.). November net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was plus KZT82,103.5 m. Corresponding index in October was plus KZT31,333.0 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed).
In November the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT14,758.0 m. (in October - KZT7,753.2 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT6,575.3 m. (in October - KZT13,250.1 m.). November net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT8,182.7 m. (in October - minus KZT5,496.9 m.).
Total November net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT90,164.7 m. Similar indicator of October - plus KZT25,004.4 m.
The given data lets to affirm that in the analyzed month National Bank was more intensively sterilizing the market through issuing of notes then in October. The analysts of IRBIS inclined to explain that by the events on internal market of dollar, where the pressure of US supply from the side of second tier banks had strengthened significantly. Fro provision of the rate of tenge to US dollar stability National bank had to increase the volume of purchase of the American currency on KASE, and as the consequence to offer more notes for sterilization of the excessive tenge liquidity.
IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty).
[2006-12-08]