U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 25, 06/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar by the day results. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD. Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.
Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Morning Day Evening
Time 10:15-11:00 ALT 11:30-15:30 14:00-17:00
--------------- -------------- -------------
Indicator value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Opening rate 126.86 +0.18 126.83 +0.16 - -
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Maximum rate 126.86 +0.11 126.93 +0.08 - -
Volume on max. price 300 -700 2400 +1600 0 0
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Minimum rate 126.80 +0.12 126.83 +0.17 - -
volume on min. price 7000 +4300 300 0 0 0
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Closing rate 126.81 +0.11 126.93 +0.15 - -
Weight. aver. rate 126.81 +0.11 126.87 +0.11 - -
Volume of the session 82600 -52250 13900 -26055 0 0
Number of deals 109 -37 39 -53 0 0
Number of participants 19 -1 15 -3 0 0
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Best bid* 126.81 +0.12 126.93 +0.17 - -
Best ask* 126.82 +0.12 126.94 +0.16 - -
---------------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 126.78 +0.10 126.94 +0.17 126.93 +0.10
REUTERS Ask* 126.84 +0.11 126.99 +0.20 126.94 +0.09
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* at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of
REUTERS
Table of price levels of trading in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms
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Total by results of the day:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
126.93 2400 6 2400 6 15:04 15:15
126.92 300 1 300 1 15:03 15:03
126.91 200 2 200 2 15:03 15:03
126.90 200 1 200 1 14:41 14:41
126.89 500 1 500 1 14:39 14:39
126.88 300 1 300 1 14:39 14:39
126.86 300 1 1300 3 1600 4 10:16 14:39
126.85 1000 1 6900 20 7900 21 10:16 14:42
126.84 1500 3 1500 3 11:48 11:53
126.83 4000 7 300 1 4300 8 10:17 11:33
126.82 25800 38 25800 38 10:16 10:54
126.81 44500 56 44500 56 10:27 10:59
126.80 7000 6 7000 6 10:43 10:43
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 82600 109 13900 39 96500 148 10:16 15:15
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Sep. 19, 06 Sep. 20, 06 Sep. 21, 06 Sep. 22, 06 Sep. 25, 06 ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Offer 10,600 17,050 20,200 19,495 21,600 Bid 40,300 25,900 27,950 57,350 40,250 ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Difference +29,700 +8,850 +7,750 +37,855 +18,650 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The market has demonstrated today one step towards correcting growth of dollar. The day maintained the current conjuncture of the market and kept the positive mood of its participants to further dollar strengthening.
Disposition of banks on KASE displayed very strong tendency among traders to USD purchase. Notably, by the results of the day there was the single second tier bank in the camp of net-sellers of dollar, which IRBIS does not consider to be an actual market-maker at the present time.
Judging on the results of the technical analysis, the market is fixing the reached a week earlier stages, and it is inclined to fixing at the third correcting stage 129.05. This stage presents correction at 62% of 7-month dollar fall in the current year from 135.15. Noteworthy, the resistance at 129.05, according to its peculiarity, does not look insuperable, as the key stage is laying at 130.50. In the point of view of the technical analysis, we previously observe working fluctuations of dollar rate within main three-year descending trend from the support at 117.00 to the resistance at 130.50.
Nevertheless, IRBIS analysts do not exclude that the current growth rate of the market is the early start of upward trend. However, this trend will be really approachable after breaking through the key resistance at 130.50. Then continuous dollar fall at Kazakhstan market will be possible to describe within three-phase correction starting from the previous growth at the market to the stage at 156.30. This sate of affairs looks logical, although conflicts with fundamental characteristics.
Prediction of IRBIS for Tuesday sounds like: it will be observed movement upwards by a helping hand of demanding banks and their clients.
[2006-09-25]