U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Sergey Yakovlev, Andrey Tsalyuk, August 14, 06/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar by the day results. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD. Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.
Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Morning Day Evening
Time 10:15-11:00 ALT 11:30-16:00 14:00-17:00
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Indicator value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Opening rate 122.40 -0.10 122.56 +0.02 - -
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Maximum rate 122.65 +0.04 122.62 +0.02 - -
Volume on max. price 5600 +5300 430 -70 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Minimum rate 122.40 -0.10 122.52 +0.07 - -
volume on min. price 1200 +900 300 -1300 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Closing rate 122.65 +0.07 122.60 +0.14 - -
Weight. aver. rate 122.58 0 122.56 +0.05 - -
Volume of the session 180350 +144750 45900 +20250 0 0
Number of deals 274 +173 97 +3 0 0
Number of participants 19 -1 17 -4 2 +2
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Best bid* 122.60 +0.03 122.58 +0.15 122.59 -
Best ask* 122.65 +0.07 122.60 +0.12 122.63 -
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 122.54 +0.03 122.51 +0.16 122.53 +0.20
REUTERS Ask* 122.62 +0.02 122.55 +0.10 122.61 +0.22
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* at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of
REUTERS
Table of price levels of trading in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms
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Total by results of the day:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
122.65 5600 14 5600 14 10:33 10:59
122.64 6500 14 6500 14 10:34 10:59
122.63 5000 12 5000 12 10:34 10:59
122.62 430 4 430 4 12:13 12:20
122.62 4900 10 4900 10 10:33 10:59
122.61 9600 12 400 4 10000 16 10:33 15:19
122.60 1840 13 1840 13 12:29 15:29
122.60 34900 61 34900 61 10:27 10:58
122.59 10400 19 1680 14 12080 33 10:30 15:29
122.58 4600 10 4600 10 11:53 15:29
122.58 40350 20 40350 20 10:26 10:57
122.57 1100 8 1100 8 11:46 14:14
122.57 12750 21 12750 21 10:24 10:33
122.56 10850 21 11850 11 22700 32 10:18 15:05
122.55 23000 25 23000 25 11:33 14:48
122.55 20600 28 20600 28 10:18 10:33
122.54 8400 13 8400 13 10:19 10:26
122.53 1000 3 700 5 1700 8 10:24 11:38
122.52 300 3 300 3 11:36 11:36
122.52 1000 3 1000 3 10:21 10:21
122.51 1500 7 1500 7 10:21 10:24
122.50 5800 13 5800 13 10:18 10:21
122.40 1200 3 1200 3 10:16 10:17
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 180350 274 45900 97 226250 371 10:16 15:29
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indicator Aug. 8, 06 Aug. 9, 06 Aug. 10, 06 Aug. 11, 06 Aug. 14, 06 ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Offer 9,550 17,400 9,500 8,450 7,850 Bid 7,000 12,900 22,000 9,800 20,400 ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Difference -2,550 -4,500 +12,500 +1,350 +12,550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first day of the new week was speculated the same as the previous four. It was characterized with very high demand for American currency from the side of one trades participants, which was satisfied almost by all factual market makers out of the number of second tier banks. Sellers succeeded in pulling the market upwards in the first half of the day. In the afternoon the positional trade was dominated on exchange's floor at the reached price stages.
After pronounced by Agency INTERFAX-KAZAKHSTAN on Saturday sayings of the head of The National bank Anvar Saydenov on the subject of the domestic currency market of the republic, IRBIS specialists are confident in the statement that the new system of formation of the National fund affects the market decisively at the present. According to this system, The National bank of Kazakhstan converted to KASE tax entries of exporters accounted in tenge into USA dollar in order to enter this currency into account of the National fund. The demand for USD, appeared this way, force dollar purchasers on KASE to demonstrate incompliance, to speculate upwards, that seems to be the main factor of dollar growth in Kazakhstan since the beginning of August.
As the results of the first ten days of the current month, effect of the specified factor is able seriously to change the USD market conjuncture as far as the turn to the long-term trend. Since then it has been viewed that The National bank will give back non-issued tenge or tenge, gotten for notes, but mostly already existing in the circulation money in stead of dollars, offered by Banks and their clients. Saying in other words, purchase of dollars by the head bank within Kazakhstan to less extent will enlarge funds stock and create less investments risks.
The new system, undoubtedly, will force banks to reconsider their tactics, and, probably, their strategy of behavior at the domestic currency market of the country, for which the time is needed. IRBIS analysts do not exclude that the strategy of the external borrowing will receive the consideration, volume of which can be reduce due to absence of secured tenge against dollar strengthening later on, and also against the background of new requirements for the formation of banks' reserves.
In the view of the technical analysis, there was marked the burst of dollar prices at the market, which is able to finish development of the main tendency, but for the current moment to talk about its ending is ahead of time. While the market is working on the deep correction, the targets of which have not been achieved yet.
Rather daring prediction of IRBIS is following for the reason of the above- said, according to which, in nearest future the dollar market in Kazakhstan will be reconstructed, while going upwards, that is confirmed by the day results.
More well-founded prediction of dollar rate behavior in average-time outlook will be possible to make up in one and half month, while waiting for the second phase of conversion of exporters' tax entries into dollars for filling in the National fund, and also following the behavior of the market in intermission of such a conversion.
[2006-08-14]