U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results
/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, August 11, 06/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market of U.S. dollar by the day results. The rate is given in tenge per dollar, volume - th. USD. Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous trading day.
Results of trades on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE)
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Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM
KASE's session Morning Day Evening
Time 10:15-11:00 ALT 11:30-16:00 14:00-17:00
--------------- -------------- -------------
Indicator value trend value trend value trend
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Opening rate 122.50 0 122.54 +0.04 - -
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Maximum rate 122.61 +0.01 122.60 -0.19 - -
Volume on max. price 300 -13700 500 +300 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Minimum rate 122.50 0 122.45 -0.05 - -
volume on min. price 300 -75600 1600 +1300 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Closing rate 122.58 +0.03 122.46 -0.16 - -
Weight. aver. rate 122.58 +0.04 122.51 -0.15 - -
Volume of the session 35600 -268400 25650 -16730 0 0
Number of deals 101 -70 94 -33 0 0
Number of participants 20 -1 21 +4 0 0
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
Best bid* 122.57 +0.04 122.43 -0.16 - -
Best ask* 122.58 +0.03 122.48 -0.12 - -
---------------------- ------ ------- ------ ------ ------ -----
REUTERS Bid* 122.51 +0.03 122.35 -0.25 122.33 -0.19
REUTERS Ask* 122.60 +0.04 122.45 -0.22 122.39 -0.19
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* at closing of the session on KASE, out of stock exchange - by the data of
REUTERS
Table of price levels of trading in US dollar on KASE on TOD terms
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Total by results of the day:
Morning Day ----------------------------
session: session: time (ALT):
Price ------------- ------------- ------------
level volume deals volume deals volume deals from to
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
122.61 300 2 300 2 10:22 10:22
122.60 500 2 500 2 11:43 11:44
122.60 17100 55 17100 55 10:19 10:29
122.59 3900 13 600 2 4500 15 10:19 11:47
122.58 1100 6 1100 6 11:43 11:58
122.58 2300 11 2300 11 10:28 10:59
122.57 2200 9 2200 9 10:36 10:42
122.56 4400 8 4400 8 10:17 10:43
122.55 600 2 600 2 11:39 12:00
122.55 5000 1 5000 1 10:17 10:17
122.54 100 1 400 2 500 3 10:16 12:00
122.53 850 5 850 5 11:32 14:55
122.52 1850 12 1850 12 11:32 14:54
122.51 2750 16 2750 16 11:32 14:54
122.50 300 1 13100 32 13400 33 10:15 15:18
122.49 500 3 500 3 12:54 15:28
122.48 600 2 600 2 15:28 15:28
122.47 400 2 400 2 12:58 13:01
122.46 800 3 800 3 13:01 15:29
122.45 1600 5 1600 5 13:03 13:44
------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------- ----- ----- -----
TOTAL 35600 101 25650 94 61250 195 10:15 15:29
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Parameters of unsatisfied demand and supply of second tier banks in KASE' trade system for the last 5 days (total of valid bids by the time of morning and day trades closing, th. USD)
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Indicator Aug. 7, 06 Aug. 8, 06 Aug. 9, 06 Aug. 10, 06 Aug. 11, 06 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ----------- Offer 10,960 9,550 17,400 9,500 8,450 Bid 13,100 7,000 12,900 22,000 9,800 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ----------- Difference +2,140 -2,550 -4,500 +12,500 +1,350 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
The week, which greatly surprised professional participants with illogical dynamics of American dollar against tenge rate, came to end on Kazakhstan stock exchange. Volume of USD offering on KASE meaningfully increased under influence of higher reserve requirements for second tier banks (STB), high world oil prices and necessarily to conduct budget payments. This volume was mostly formed by leading operators of this market segment out of the number of STB. To all appearances, it is a currency income of banks' clients, and also currency reserves of banks themselves, which were realized at the domestic market due to temporarily deficit of tenge liquidity ("over night" repo rates on KASE were rather high during this week).
Nevertheless, effects of the described above factors did not lead to traditional in such situations tenge against dollar strengthening. Oppositely, since the beginning of the month dollar rate in Kazakhstan has demonstrated pronounced growth, while completely ignoring positions of American currency at the world market.
Judging on opinions of professional market participants, published in different surveys and interviews, the analogical dynamics of dollar rate during the week was caused by specific actions of National Bank of Kazakhstan, which by uncertain reasons refused of tactics targeted on smoothing dollar rate's fluctuations and directly influenced upon market by its demand, providing by the end of the week the fixation of prices about KZT122.50 per dollar. There came out with suggestions in the press about "political order", which was being made by National bank (honestly, the meaning of such an order stays unclear).
Judging on the volumes of exchange's operations, the "hot action" between factual market makers out of the number of STB and the head bank took place within August 9 and 10. These days the desirable rate of dollar was fixed at the market. On August 11 the market was got slightly quiet and conducted positional trade about the marked rate.
Noteworthy, banks' disposition on KASE did not change practically during the week. Unreasonable dynamics of dollar rate did not force to pass on to the camp of net-purchasers of American currency and enlarge long positions on dollar. By results of any day of the week, from time to time, one of the factual market makers appeared in that camp, while solving local problems. However, the next day he would come back to doll sales.
Speculative component of behavior of banks' traders on KASE was pronounced strongly. However, speculations were not targeted at continuous dollar growth. Trades participants preferred fixing positive price difference within long positions. Seeing that, influence of speculations on conjuncture making was minimal.
To the moment of trades closing on Friday the market seemed to be lost than oriented to further strengthening of USD. It does not tend to growing, as there are no objective reasons.
Predictably, next week traders will make efforts to fix at 122.50 not as the opposition stage, but as support. If it appears to be very strong, the market, more likely, will start positional trade and formation of sub-horizontal channel of the consolidation at the stage, specified by the head bank of the country.
Seeing the events from this angle, analysts of IRBIS do not exclude the possibility of other scenario in this field, as, considering the past week. it is possible to view any turn of events.
[2006-08-11]