S&P может снизить рейтинги Халык-банка, Казкоммерцбанка (Казахстан)

/Московское бюро REUTERS, 07.04.99/ - Рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor's объявило о возможности снижения рейтингов Народного сберегательного банка Казахстана (Халык-банк) и Казкоммерцбанка, говорится в сообщении агентства, распространенном вчера поздно вечером. S&P может понизить следующие рейтинги двух банков: - Народный сберегательный банк: долгосрочный партнерский кредитный рейтинг ("В"); - Казкоммерцбанк: долгосрочный партнерский кредитный и основной необеспеченный долговой рейтинги (оба - "В-"), а также основной необеспеченный долговой рейтинг "В-", присвоенный Kazkommerts International BV (гарант - Казкоммерцбанк). Одновременно краткосрочный партнерский рейтинг Народного сберегательного банка снижен до "С" с "В". Аналогичный рейтинг Казкоммерцбанка подтвержден на уровне "С". Возможность понижения рейтинга связана с решением Казахстана сделать курс тенге плавающим, и последовавшим за этим падением курса тенге к доллару. Ниже следует оригинал сообщения из Лондона: (The following statement was issued by the rating agency) LONDON, April 7 - Standard & Poor's today placed its single-' B' long- term counterparty credit rating of Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan and Its single-' B' -minus long-term counterparty credit and senior unsecured debt ratings of Kazkommertsbank (JSC) on CreditWatch with negative implications. Standard & Poor's also placed its single-' B' -minus 'rating on Kazkommerts International BV's senior unsecured debt (guaranteed by Kazkommertsbank JSC) on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, the short-term counterparty credit rating of Halyk Savings Bank is lowered to single-'C' from single-'B'. The single-' C' counterparty credit rating on Kazkommertsbank is affirmed. The CreditWatch actions follow the Kazak authorities' decision to allow their currency, the Kazak tenge, to float freely. Following this, the currency fell sharply to an official level of around tenge (KZTII50 to the U.S. dollar, from KZT88. Black market rates are as high as KZT200. Standard & Poor's expects the impact of the free float on the Kazak banks to be twofold: - Liquidity will be affected, as there is likely to be a run on bank deposits as clients try to change local currency Into dollars. To prevent this, the government has promised that Individuals who maintain their deposits in the banks for a nine-month period will be able to change them Into dollars at the rate prevailing before the devaluation (KZT 88.3); that is, a nonconfiscatory rate. Currently, It is impossible to change tenge into dollars in any case because all exchange offices are closed; - Standard & Poor's anticipates a knock-on effect on the asset quality of the Kazak banks that have favoured lending in hard currency (the bulk of the rated Kazak banks' loan portfolios are U.S. dollar denominated) Some of these clients have access to foreign currency earnings but not all. Additionally, the Kazak banks' loan books tend to be very concentrated. The National Bank of Kazakhstan has proposed several measures to ease the plight of the banks, such as reduction of the reserve requirements to 5% from 10% and the loosening of several prudential requirements. The devaluation does not threaten the solvency of the Halyk Savings Bank or Kazkommertsbank because both have been managing to a long-dollar position in recent months. In fact, a substantial devaluation would lead to large taxable unrealized gains for both banks. With regard to the prospects for repayment of foreign borrowings, Halyk Savings Bank has no external hard currency Indebtedness outstanding but Kazkommertsbank has a number of syndicated facilities (the latest, a $22 million loan, was announced only at the end of last week) , as well as a eurobond issue, although the repayment of these faculties is not imminent. The Kazak banks do not have a nondeliverable forward problem to exacerbate the situation, as was the case for the Russian banks. Additionally, unlike the crisis in Russia, Standard & Poor's does not see a default by the Kazak government on its tenge-denominated obligations as imminent; nor is a freezing of the domestic debt market expected. Kazakhstan's local currency debt position is still viewed as manageable. Kazakhstan's local currency obligations are rated double-' B' -minus by Standard & Poor' s. To resolve the CreditWatch listings following the stabilisation of the tenge, Standard & Poor's will analyse the liquidity positions of the banks in the aftermath of the devaluation, the likelihood of a significant deterioration in the banks' asset quality because of heightened credit risk, and the banks' business prospects in the new economic environment.